5/5 e550
1 guy posts in between BTN and SB
UTG posts.
UTG checks.
BTN LAG (capable of big all in river bluff with air) raises to 35.
fold
Fold
Hero is BB A3cc to 120.
BTN calls.
HU
255) flop T63dcs
Hero bets 85. V calls.
425) turn Th
X v quickly jams 330 all in. Hero?

Seems like he could just float ATC OTF and arrive with full range OTT. So he has quite a few bluffs to pick from... my hand blocks ATcc and unblocks Ahi x backs so he’s more weighted to TX or Air.

I’m getting 330:755 so I need like 30% to justify a call.
If I’m behind to TX I’m stone dead 0%
If he’s protect shoving 99-77 I have 10%
If he has random air like QJ I’m a 90% favorite.

Tough spot imo

I mean, you have a pair. It’s hard to make a pair in Hold ‘Em. I think you kind of have to flick in the call. You have plenty of worse hands to fold out.

Very tough spot. How good is the LAG? The worse he is the more he shove air when the ten pairs. Would he shove TX here or check the turn and try to nurse another bet out of you? Does he have pairs JJ+ in his range? These don't need to 4 bet preflop because of stack sizes. Villain has some bluffs that beat you (6X and 55/44). My feeling is that your are beat a lot but with those odds it still may be profitable to call.
I'm inclination is fold.

I'm not sure why you think villain would float his entire range. If you think he's that big of an idiot then obviously snap call, but I think your thought process is wrong here.

I agree with the rest of your reasoning for why this is a good combo to catch with. Ax shouldn't be part of his bluffing range so you have good blockers. If he does choose to bluff A-highs that's even better for you.

I'd add that it seems kind of fishy to jam Tx when there's still the river to play and he has nothing to fear by going for two streets.

I think it's a clear call and well played if you did.

If villain is bad enough to jam 6x/55/44 and think better is going to fold more than very rarely then that's even more reason to call because he's terrible and probably just bombing his whole range. Worse hands are going to call 44 more often than better hands fold.

its close, don't know solver plus is calling 64 percent of the time and folding 36 percent of the time.

You induced the bluff. As the solver shows, it is EV close. Therefore, you call it off to slow him down the next time he decides to push you off your draw.

What TX hands does the villain have: T9s, JTs, and ATs, plus maybe QTs and KTs; between six and ten combos total. They have one combo of TT (which they probably wouldn't jam the turn with, more likely that they would check back to induce a thin value river bet), three 66, and maybe three 33. The range they are seeing the flop with is not going to have premiums -- they flatted your 3-bet -- but it is going to have lots of pairs, suited connectors, suited aces, suited broadways.

Villain's protect-shoving a pocket pair is terribad; they get folds from worse and calls from better, including all of your overpairs -- which you should have bet flop and checked turn just as you have done -- and even our own TX combos (ATs, KTs, JTs and T9s).

This doesn't look like a tough spot at all to me; it looks like a shrug-call -- assuming, that is, we think the villain is capable of bluffing, which your read says they are. If we lose less than 70% of the time, we are profiting.

Alright kiddos,

RESULT
we cry fold and v shows us the K9cc

I really think I could have found this call FML

He also has all the overpairs , 6x ,55, 44, which all beat us, I don't really like the pf iso play from oop , learned too many times the hand plays tough spots postflop , for him to call atc and then just spew jam the turn seems odd to me, you hand is basically the same as A high, a wise friend once told me " pick the low hanging fruit, it's easier on your back '

LOL

It wasn’t a joke.
We are probably checking range on this turn, including all our overpairs.
We have plenty of unpaired hands that we have to fold to the turn jam, like QJs,KJs, KQ, A4s, A5s, 98s, 87s, etc.
If you want to play in bigger games like 5/5 and 5/T against opponents who have a bluffing frequency you are going to need to be comfortable committing your stack with weak pairs in a spot where ranges are very wide. Just look at how wide the opponent floated our small flop cbet. He had just a BDFD/BDSD/one overcard. Actually a very reasonable flop call by him. If you snap fold A3 here you’re going to let him profitably bluff with all of his air (and he has a lot given the size of our flop cbet).

If you are content to play 1/2 and 1/3 against opponents who have no bluffing frequency, then you don’t need to ever make a call like this in your poker career. But this is a different game and an opponent who is stated as being capable of bluffing.

Also preflop squeeze is entirely standard (call is okay too).

He doesn’t have all the overpairs given preflop. Just JJ (and even that should be a 4bet quite often). As stated by browni, he’s never taking this line with 6x,55,44 unless he’s laughably bad. And then if he’s that bad/clueless, he probably has loads of other bluffs that make this a ++EV call.

What do you think about H's downbet flop here on a very dry board? Eff is 550 and we've made a big preflop raise. SPR kinda low.

I feel like we can x our range on this flop and give ourselves more turn flexibility, or use our range advantage to make a larger c-bet given the preflop sizing. Downbet seems like the worst alternative. Yes it's 5/5 but we're 110 deep to start. (I'm trying not to be results oriented...)

I’ll have to take a look at the solver to see if this is a range bet spot, given a top 12% range for OOP and a wider 18ish% range for IP (minus strongest hands). Whether or not it’s a range bet, I really like this sizing when we choose to bet. If we go much larger on flop, we’d be left with closer to half pot on turn. Which seems a bit awkward. I prefer to set up for a slightly larger 2/3 pot turn bet but IDK if that’s optimal.

If we check this hand, I think we will be forced to check/jam any flop bet by IP to deny equity.

IDK if we should range check when we have such a significant advantage on this board. It could definitely make sense as an exploit if we think opponent is betting too much when we check.

Solver output on this hand is a bit weird (I used a linear 11% 3betting range in BB, and defense range for BTN is top 18% minus AK,QQ+ and half of JJ).
Solver range bets flop for 33% sizing and then jams 5 combos total on turn. The turn jams are exactly A3 and some AK/AQ as bluffs.

I was wrong about the T being a range check spot on turn. We continue betting overpairs JJ-KK at a high frequency, but we favor a 33% sizing

I would never have guessed that we’d favor a smaller turn sizing than all-in. It’s a bit counterintuitive. Incidentally, on any Jx turn we never use the smaller sizing. We jam or check (but mostly jam).

On T turn, if I remove the 33% bet option, so force the decision between jam turn and check turn, then we jam half combos and check half combos. All A3 are jammed.

The T pairing isn’t nearly as bad as I’d said. I guess this is a feature of low SPR and wide ranges. Makes sense now that I think about it.

i don't see why he'd possibly shove here on turn with a T and give you an easy way out, given image it's a call

Vs LAGs who overcall 3bets (seems like this villain might be one) - I prefer to make a more linear preflop 3b range (more ATo, KJo, less A3s or 89s) because we're often comfortable stacking off w/ TP good kicker.

Not sure I like sizing (or the bet) on the flop. This flop frequently misses our range, and 1/3 pot doesn't properly challenge villain's KJ/AQ type hands. W/ my betting range, I probably bet 180 OTF.

The pros of 180 is that it properly challenges villain's overcard range + their lower PP range.

The con is that it doesn't leave us with any turn play. That being said - I think it's ok to be one and done on this particular flop texture.

We don't have 66 or 33 in our range (the villain does), but we definitely have TT, all the overpairs, and ATs. We have a massive range advantage, given that the preflop opener capped their range by just calling our 3-bet. There are some boards where I am not c-betting my entire range, but T63r is not one of them. Given that the SPR is just about 5/3, we don't need to bet very much at all to set up a shove on a later street, and in fact if we bet more, we wind up in situations where we cannot fire a second barrel as a bluff because of the certainty with which it will be called.

What does the bolded part of your post even mean? "Properly challenge?" This is a theoretical concept with which I am not familiar. Would you like to expand upon it?

(Any bet at all is a statement on our part that we are now playing for stacks. Would you, as villain, want to play for stacks with unimproved king-high?)

Thanks for the thoughtful response.

Regarding bet sizing + my play in this spot - hyperknit's read is: "Seems like he could just float ATC OTF...", and given that read - I prefer betting a size where AQ has a strong incentive to fold vs float us. If the read were different, I would not opt to play this spot as exploitatively. But, given the read, it seems like 85 dollars is just throwing money into the abyss.

"properly challenge" is a concept I heard used in the "Thinking Poker" podcast, and is a way I think about choosing bet sizing when I'm playing more exploitatively. The concept (as I understand it) is:
1. Thinking about a specific range we're targeting (in the hand above, AQ, since villain never folds a T or mid PP)
2. Betting an amount where the given range has a tough decision to make regarding folding / calling

Btw - I'm happy to be wrong in what I'm saying above - would be happy to hear your thoughts.