Quote:
River bluff is fine against this type, but turn call is awful. We have 4 outs and 8 bluff outs. Calling this turn against such a strong range is just not going to work out very often.
+1 this and all similar posts.
Preflop is fine. Flop float is OK this deep. Turn call is bad. Here's the math:
$390 in the pot on the turn with action on you.
You will hit the nuts 6.52% of the time. If you get his whole stack ($1250 remaining) when you hit, your equity is:
($1250 + $390) * 0.0652 - $150 * 0.9348 = -$33.26
19.56% of the time, a diamond will hit. (notice that if you hit the Qd for a straight, you probably won't get paid for the same reason your bluff didn't get called. In those cases, you'll get what you got:
($390 + $275) * 19.56% - $150 * 80.44% = -$9.41
Maybe if you could profitably bluff a 9 or an ace against this opponent I could make a better case, but I think that's offset by the fact that most weak-tighties will check that 3rd diamond all day long and you were fortunate enough to get a bet.
That said, river bluff standard given that you got that far.