9-handed.

CO: ~$1500
SB (Hero): ~$500

EP limps, CO makes it $20, Hero makes it $80 with AA, CO calls.

Hero is two orbits in. First hand I played was the previous hand, when I was in the BB. There were two limps in EP and a LAG in the SB made it $20. I 3bet to $80 and everyone folded. I know that I have less credibility in CO's eyes, even though I think I should have more given that I 3bet twice in a row.

Flop ($165): J T 9
Hero bets $80, CO thinks for a bit and shoves.

I hated this flop right away as it smacks villain's range. 88-QQ are strong possibilities. The few hands I saw him play, he called pre and folded OTF so I didn't have any strong reads on him. Therefore I don't know for sure if he could have called my 3bet with JT/QJ/98-type hands, but he seems like the type who could.

I don't think he takes this line with AJ, but maybe with AQ. All in all though, I think his range has great equity on this board and I don't think I'm ever a big favorite.

SPR is 2.5 though. Should I CB more to commit, or is my CB size ok?

Best play as played?

Board: Jc Th 9s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 29.421% 28.70% 00.72% 12503 313.00 { AdAh }
Hand 1: 70.579% 69.86% 00.72% 30431 313.00 { QQ-99, AQs, KQs, QJs, JTs, AQo, KQo }

I think it's a fold as played. This board hits his PF range. He has no flush draws to be bluffing. Basically, no matter what he has he is never getting it in too badly against you, and some of his range has you crushed.

Good rule of thumb for this type of analysis while in the hand:

1. Estimate the bottom of the villain's *value* range. If the bottom has very good equity against you and the top of his range has you crushed, your overall equity sucks.
2. Estimate villain's bluffing frequency given ranges/action up to this point/villain tendencies

If (1) yields low equity and (2) yields low bluffing frequency and there is meaningful money behind, usually easy fold.

So KK is in his range as well not every one will 4 bet it. I just don't think he would fast play his straights this way given that there are no flush draws possible. I'd call, as said he probably isn't giving you a huge amount of respect right heare and might think AJ is the nuts

Does our perceived 3bet range connect with this board at all? (I don't really think so)

And is betting our best option here? (Not asking to make a point, I'm not sure)

To be clear, I don't think KK is in his range here because I'm positive he would have 4bet it pre, especially given that this was my 2nd 3bet pre in a row.

Also, my feeling was that he wouldn't take this line with AJ. I mean there was no way for me to know for sure at the time since I had no solid reads on him, but my feeling was that he wasn't that type of fishy player.

Saying that AA and KK aren't in his range after being at the table for only two orbits is wrong. Villain has position so why would he always 4 bet these hands? AJ is unlikely but not impossible.

If this board is so bad that you don't want to get it in with an SPR of 2.5 you shouldn't be betting at all.

You probably should have made a large bet $125 to $150 and then you price your self in to call his shove even using Setsy narrow range.

Ugh I hate these spots... My initial though was to call getting 2:1 and your image. I think that the range setsy assigned is a bit too strong. And as clover stated, he probably doesn't shove his flopped straights and maybe not even his sets. Without reads on villain it makes it really tough because you don't really know how he would play certain hands or how much credit you will be given for a hand here.

Thimk its a fold. Think c/c prob best here.

I think betting is the best option because it gives me the most flexibility. It keeps my range open, lets me decide how much I want to put in, and lets me see how villain reacts.

If I were to check, it leaves me in the dark when villain bets. My hand looks like AK now, so I'm forced to call any bet. But what if he pots it? I have to call, but then I'll have put in half my stack not knowing where I stand. Am I up against AJ or KQ? If I call, can I really fold OTT when the pot is nearly twice my stack?

So all in all, I think betting is best.

Scratch that i like c/jam

Then you need to be planning on this raise. This board connects with his range more than yours imo.

I find it odd you really want to bet here but don't like getting it in with an SPR of 2.5 as someone said above. Tough to b/f with at spr and the toppest pair.

b/c > c/c > c/f >>>>>> b/f

how much greater is the b/c than the c/c iyo? And does this kind of mean c/x is better than b/x?

I agree c/f is better than b/f. I think I like c/f better than b/c.

well, for what line is better than what and when - i think that is very, very, very villain dependent...

for example - against some super nitty/passive villains c/f may be best since this is a 3bet pot and i don't expect them to be betting worse for value too much and they may not be the type to bluff

c/c is great against aggro-fishy players who will bet without really thinking why they are betting and will also bluff when checked to a decent percentage of the time. btw, against these guys i'm getting AA in every time

b/c - i think bet/calling is pretty much the standard line in this spot given we have AA in a 3bet pot with only 100BB starting stacks.

b/f - not terrible against a nit, but bad since we dump 1/3 of our stack in already.

imo it's more like this due to position and 2nd 3b hand in a row. thoughts?

Board: Jc Th 9s
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 55.155% 53.17% 01.99% 159486 5961.00 { 99+, AQs-AJs, KJs+, QTs+, J9s+, T8s+, 98s }
Hand 1: 44.845% 42.86% 01.99% 128562 5961.00 { AA }

I hate the cbet size.... and I hate making it without this decision already being made.....

As for this decision, I think it is a call. You set yourself up to stack with AA... villain has lots of hands that have us in trouble in this pot (straight/set/2 pair), but another hand that villain could have and easily bet this way is something like QJ, QQ, QT with the thinking I may be good now, and if not I have a good draw and appear to have pretty good fold equity too based on the small bet.