Quote:
Originally Posted by Polarbear1955
Is the river a A, K, Q that hits UTGs range? What was your thinking on calling flop? I'd likely stab at the pot with say $220 on turn representing a J.
He is not going to fold an overpair here and we have showdown value. This is a very over stabbed spot. No reason to start turning our hand into a bluff. We are ahead of a lot of hands like A high, K high.
We should be floating the flop a lot when he bets so small with A high, K high, even QTs, even 65s with a backdoor flush draw. We have so many of these hands to start bluffing on the turn and we can check our best ace highs.
Small flop sizing and the fact that he is younger makes it seem that villain is at least a little studied, which overall makes me put a little stock into his ability to bluff. His preflop sizing is too small though with the cold caller, but I don't think that is a huge factor in my decision making process.
You should trap a fair amount on the turn. In theory you can mix call/fold here about 50/50. I lean towards call, but it's close. If you always call with this type of hand you're going to be exploitable and I would be cautious around people at the table using that information as they may label you a calling station and go thin for value. If you always fold this hand you are also going to be exploitable too though, so I do feel like mixing makes sense.