Quote:
Originally Posted by crackleback
OK, first off you aren't 3.3K deep, you are $930 deep effective so that's a very different situation.
2. 89 and K9 should have reraised tried to get it in on flop(unless he isn't that good or thinks you aren't that good and thinks you have AA KK and doesn't think you can get away if a blank falls on turn(but I still don't like that play). K9dd or 89dd may be willing to let a card come off.
3. All combo draws should have reraised/gotten in on flop if he wanted to put it all in. Not wait for turn.
4. You discount AK. I think that's a mistake. AKs definitely might play this way and not 3 bet you OOP as he wants multiway pot w relative position vs the field(just fine w AKs, AKo he probably 3bets big, folds to 5 bet) with fish in the hand where he is way ahead of their ranges. As opposed to a HU pot w you where your calling/4 bet range has him crushed. After flop if he has AKdd (or AKo even) his line is fine. Face it, he's not that worried about you spiking 7 outs on turn and he puts the hammer down after turn blank.
I think you are looking at AKdd, AKo, some k9dd, and 89dd, AKo occasionally. There's a few weird combo draws, 2 pairs/JJ that may mistakenly play this way too I guess. Enough for you to call getting 2.5 to 1 maybe, but you are beat an awful high % here. You could fold too. EV is real close on both so not a big mistake either way.
I don't think V has A
K
, K
9
or 8
9
here.
Think about it.
Why would you want to let one more card peel off and hope to hit your flush when you've already got the nuts?
Why wouldn't you make this move on the river?
Most Vs wouldn't let a card peel off with X
X
- when they've got the most equity on the flop. Typically, the flop is where they would check/raise on a sem-bluff.
The "tank" feels more to me like one of those times when V is thinking "well, if he's got it... then he's got it." - and his hand is too strong to fold but too weak to just call.
I agree with OP that K9 and 89 fit this bill to a tee - with 89 being the most likely.
V has got to be afraid that we've got AK... but in his mind that's the ONLY hand that beats his hand...
As mentioned earlier - it hard to imagine him playing the FD..unless he's making a move with A
T
or K
T
(but I would expect him to do that on the flop).
so..
if he's got the straight - we're a 3:1 dog
if he's got 2 pair - he's got a 10% chance of improving.
against JJ - we're screwed.
I think he check/called the flop to make sure a
didn't hit.
If you call, I'd expect to see 8
9
- or something like that.
If you had bet more on the turn - then you would have had better odds to call and hope to boat up.
As played, I think you have to lay it down.
Last edited by HiroNakamara; 03-18-2014 at 04:10 PM.