Villain is a strong winning reg at 2-5 but also used to be a winning player in up to 5-10 online but as recently made the transition to live. He is a TAG overall but can be quite tricky, can value bet thin, and hand reads quite well. We have a bunch of history and I think he feels he knows my game fairly well. He knows I am a winning reg also but thinks he has an edge on me. He knows I am capable of making big bluffs in certain spots but that generally I play solid, and play strong hands pre. We are friendly with each other but also competitive.

We are sitting at a 5-5 with a few whales and a few regs. I am sitting with 3.3k and him with 930.

Hand: Hero opens to 30 in MP after 2 limpers with TsTc gets 4 callers including villain in BB.

Flop (150) TJQdd
Checked to hero who bets 115 folded to villain who calls.

Turn (380) Offsuit 3
Villain checks, hero bets 190 (should bet a bit bigger but miscalculated pot size), villain thinks for a while and then shoves for 775 total.

595 to win 1345.

Hero?

I know this probably seems like an easy call to most given pot odds but I know from my perspective, based on villain's knowledge of my game, he MUST KNOW I AM super strong when I fire into 4 other players on the wettest of boards after raising pre. As I tank after turn shove I imagine that he is putting me on tt/jj/qq/AK like 90% of the time. I don't think he thinks I would fire twice with AA or KK in this spot on such a scary board simply because I think he thinks I am a good player and it would be burning money to be firing in this spot.

At the same time I think he 3-bets jj/qq/AK pretty much always pre, especially after a raise and 3 callers, and I also imagine he check raises with 89 suited (even probably 89dd) or with k9 suited (even with k9dd) on the flop because of the all the action killers on the turn and because the very strong possibility I have flopped a set and that he would not want to give me a free card to pair the board and fill up. Since 89 and k9 are the only realistic hands that beat me (bc he three bets jj/qq/ak pre) again this seems like an easy call EXCEPT for the fact that villain is a very strong/smart player and knows how strong my hand MUST BE. And yet he is shipping it in. It seems as thought he KNOWSI probably have a set and that I am calling, KNOWS I rep a huge hand, KNOWS I can never be bluffing here, and is shipping it in anyway. Btw there is no reason to believe he is tilted in the slightest at this point in the game. Does he really do this with combo draws? Combo draws are far behind my range of tt/jj/qq/AK, all of which he expects to get snap called by, so I don't expect him to ship with those.. I guess it's possible he puts me on AA/KK and think's I am firing twice because i am putting him on a FD or combo draw and protecting my hand (in which case he would ship with combo draw, expecting a fold) but I think he knows I am good enough to pot control with these hands on this board and to not keep firing. So from one perspective 89 and k9 are the only hands I can put him on (both of which i should fold to) but from the other I don't expect him to slowplay those pre although he quite a tricky players so it's not impossible. OK thats the end of my thought process, any insight would be appreciated.

Wait, so eff stack pf is 930? Call. Way too many semi bluffs and 2pair in his range not to imo. There are a million combos you beat.

Also your weak sizing on turn may have induced.

Why would you be tanking with AK?

agree w/ above post.

OP:
I know you spent a bunch of time typing the meta game between you and your friend but i really can't solve that one from behind a computer.

You misunderstood. I didn't mean he thought I was tanking with the nuts. I'm saying that when he shoves, I think he is putting me on a range of tt/jj/qq/AK pretty much and yet he is shipping anyway, which means he expects to get called, which means he has me beat.

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Haha, thats why i liked that above response - he wasnt asking why you tanked w/ AK, he's saying thats the question you should be asking yourself about villain.

OK, first off you aren't 3.3K deep, you are $930 deep effective so that's a very different situation.

2. 89 and K9 should have reraised tried to get it in on flop(unless he isn't that good or thinks you aren't that good and thinks you have AA KK and doesn't think you can get away if a blank falls on turn(but I still don't like that play). K9dd or 89dd may be willing to let a card come off.

3. All combo draws should have reraised/gotten in on flop if he wanted to put it all in. Not wait for turn.

4. You discount AK. I think that's a mistake. AKs definitely might play this way and not 3 bet you OOP as he wants multiway pot w relative position vs the field(just fine w AKs, AKo he probably 3bets big, folds to 5 bet) with fish in the hand where he is way ahead of their ranges. As opposed to a HU pot w you where your calling/4 bet range has him crushed. After flop if he has AKdd (or AKo even) his line is fine. Face it, he's not that worried about you spiking 7 outs on turn and he puts the hammer down after turn blank.

I think you are looking at AKdd, AKo, some k9dd, and 89dd, AKo occasionally. There's a few weird combo draws, 2 pairs/JJ that may mistakenly play this way too I guess. Enough for you to call getting 2.5 to 1 maybe, but you are beat an awful high % here. You could fold too. EV is real close on both so not a big mistake either way.

You aren't 3.3k deep, bet/call turn bigger, call now.

Meh, call. This hand would be more interesting if you were 5-10k deep.

I don't think V has AK, K9 or 89 here.
Think about it.
Why would you want to let one more card peel off and hope to hit your flush when you've already got the nuts?
Why wouldn't you make this move on the river?

Most Vs wouldn't let a card peel off with XX - when they've got the most equity on the flop. Typically, the flop is where they would check/raise on a sem-bluff.

The "tank" feels more to me like one of those times when V is thinking "well, if he's got it... then he's got it." - and his hand is too strong to fold but too weak to just call.

I agree with OP that K9 and 89 fit this bill to a tee - with 89 being the most likely.

V has got to be afraid that we've got AK... but in his mind that's the ONLY hand that beats his hand...

As mentioned earlier - it hard to imagine him playing the FD..unless he's making a move with AT or KT (but I would expect him to do that on the flop).

so..
if he's got the straight - we're a 3:1 dog
if he's got 2 pair - he's got a 10% chance of improving.
against JJ - we're screwed.

I think he check/called the flop to make sure a didn't hit.
If you call, I'd expect to see 89 - or something like that.

If you had bet more on the turn - then you would have had better odds to call and hope to boat up.
As played, I think you have to lay it down.

not folding this 200bb deep when his range has so many different value and semi-bluff hands. Also big LOL at him not raising QQ/JJ in this spot AND not popping it up pre.

What do you think you are drawing dead to? You have 10 outs vs nut hands. Call.

not finding a fold in this spot

+1

how can you fold here?

easy call.

Is that Queen a diamond? Pretty easy call if it's not with the sizing you chose on that turn. He's shoving KQdd AQdd on you a lot of the time. You're not crushed by any made hand unless he was playing JJ for set value oop deep of which given your reads you've stated is unlikely.

you're 930 deep

call