5/5/10 (straddle) Bike, $1150 effective

Villain - middle aged African-American male w/ sunglasses. Semi-loose pre, opens a decent amount of hands. Seems to play straightforward postflop, hasn't shown down any bluffs. He called me down with TT on 732-J-A run-out when I flopped a set, otherwise no history between us.

OTTH

Hero w/ AQ in UTG+1
Villain in UTG limps
Hero raises to 40
SB, Villain call

Flop [135]: AQ2
Checks to Hero, who bets 70
SB folds, Villain raises to 170
Hero calls

Turn [475]: 8
Villain bets 300
Hero calls

River [1075]: 5
Villain jams for ~675 effective
Hero?

When he XR'd me OTF, I range him on 3 combos of 22, 2 combos of A2s, and KJ, KT, and JT. Frontdoor clubs get there OTR, so I'm only beating the 2 combos of A2s, losing 6 combos of flushes and sets. I need to be good 27% of the time, so this is a fold.

Above thinking correct, or am I missing something?

He may not even jam A2s OTR, and could possibly have more flushes. This seems like a fold OTR, the real question for me is whether we should just jam the turn. You're 55-45 vs that range, 40-60 if he folds A2s to a jam (he should), so I'm guessing we probably shouldn't and should just call any river that isn't a club, but the more non combo flush draws he has, the more we should just jam the turn to deny equity

Really feels like a set of 2s, but I'm either 3! flop or shoving turn over his bet.

I could find a fold OTR.

Turn sizing is pretty strong too, and we have the Ac which really scares me, so I might even let it go there knowing he likely shoves OTR. You say he likes to open pretty wide, so you have to consider what he would limp in EP, which makes me want to discount hands like JTcc and KJcc which would open.