Not going to say my hand here, question is more about bet sizing and what my value/bluff range should look like here.

Villain is a pro in his early 30s, somewhere between a TAG and LAG. Sometimes he makes big moves, always goes for max value. Sometimes he makes huge deviations too, huge folds, huge bluffs, huge hero calls. I think he is very live read heavy. I think his 3bet range in this hand is mainly going to be KQo+, AQo+ (maybe AJo), KJs+, ATs+, maybe A5s, and TT+.

Hero's image is solid (tight for the table), mostly stick to standard ranges pre, have talked solvers/GTO with villain, villain and I have a lot of hours playing with him. He has seen me put in an occasional big bluff.

5/5 with 10 straddle, 9 handed, hero is 2k effective stack in UTG+2, opens to 30. Folds to villain who is a pro in his early 30s (covers), who 3bets to $130. Hero calls.

Flop ($275)Q43 Villain bets $150, hero calls.

Turn ($575) 7 villain bets $350, hero calls

River ($1,275) 2 villain checks. Effective stack $1,370.

I am not sure what villain's check range looks like. Knowing him, I think he would still be trying to get value with QQ, AA, KK. Not sure what he does with AQ.

In the moment, it feels like a spot where it is really hard for me to have a good bluff in this spot. Looking at a solver, it's stuff that would be fairly uncomfortable getting to the river, particularly because I have to float flop. JcTc, some missed K high flush draws, 55, A4. I should have some missed backdoor nutflush draws too, but those mainly check back.

Also, should I have two sizes here? 60-80% for AQ and maybe a KK I once in a while might not 4bet, maybe QQ as I block top pair, and jam for 65, A5? Other thought is just check back AQ and jam better.

I just feel like this is such an imbalanced spot where villain will have so many give ups and I will have so few bluffs. I wonder if he even folds AQ if I jam because he won't give me credit for creative bluffs, but maybe I am overthinking it. In theory it seems like a great bluff spot, but I definitely have to float flop and turn fairly wide to have bluffs.

So, what size(s) should I use with what value hands, and what should I be bluffing here, if anything?

V's hand looks like a give up or KQs / QJs that doesn't see anymore value. I would expect AQ to go for more value, especially being between TAG and LAG.

You claim standard ranges mostly for yourself so will cut out all the marginal hands that get to this river:

Value hands are sets, A5, 56, AQ, KK (discounted as mostly 4-bet), AA (discounted as mostly 4-bet). I would go all in with these. PSB basically.

Bluff catchers are 88-JJ, QJs, KQs. Strong enough to check back but will lose some of the time.

Pure bluffs are JcTc, AcJc, AcTc. I would go all in as we have nothing.

Bluffs with nut blockers are 55 and 66. I would go all in as we block nuts and might not have the best hand.

So I'm pretty polar here, betting all in with bluffs and value and checking back middling hands.

Yeah, I think the hard part is floating flop wide enough, JcTc, KcJc, KcTc, at least at some frequency. I mean, JcTc is drawing extremely thin vs any real value bet. Basically in there to bluff out his bluffs that are actually higher SDV, and once in a blue moon hit something good.

AcJc, AcTc is a little more obvious flop float, but still uncomfortable. I might just be folding these against most players, but against a villain like this that will actually have double barrel bluffs and river give ups, maybe I need to make sure I am calling a little more theoretically sound ranges on flop in position and not just overfolding.

66 and 55 are interesting in that they have SDV, but the seem to have good blocker effects. You would expect his river checking range to mostly be beat by 66 and 55. As far as blockers go, I am not expecting this villain to have 65 much if at all, and not checking A5. If he had those hands, he would jam I am pretty sure, hoping I have a set. So maybe in theory those hands are good, but if in practice they don't block hands in his check calling range, they might not be that great.

Your first raise is too small, but maybe that's the norm? I don't think you should be bluffing here. I don't think he's folding anything that beats a bluff.

I can't imagine a hand you'd play this way. I mean, you are a solid/tight player opening UTG+2 and flatting a 3bet, then check/call flop/turn. V is probably confused and checks most of his holdings on the river.

Yes, I suppose nut blocking doesn't matter because he checked river and would have likely shoved with the nuts.

My bet size is fairly standard, a lot of players use 3x, some 3.5, some 4 when straddle is $10. If the table is really reg heavy and not very splashy, not a lot of recs, and the blind/straddle is strong, I even raise to 25 sometimes.

I can have 65, Ac5c, sets at the top of my range. I can also have AQs, KQs. Maybe also some middling bluff catcher type pairs like JJ, TT, 99.

The hands that I get to the river with and bluff are not so obvious, which I have been trying to hash out. They almost have to be hands that want to get A high to fold, like some J high and K high clubs. Because it is pretty reasonable thay villain would double barrel with A high and give up river. Villain is definitely capable of bluffing.

I know with his flop bet, if he checks turn, and I bet, I can still get all the money in by the river. The board isn't super wet either. After his turn bet, I can still get all the money in by the river if I just call. So I think it makes sense to just call really strong hands in position rather than just raising them on the flop/turn. I could work in a raising range too, but solvers seem to do that at lower frequency. Not saying solvers always have the best strategy, but in this case I think the strategy would work well vs this particular villain.

Vs a weaker villain that has less river give ups, but a fair amount of bluffs/over cbetting, I might exploitatively raise flop or turn more with bluffs for the fold equity.

All the analysis above I like . I agree with OP that he doesn't have many bluffs by the river. But I think it is more important that H can rep a lot of value here, as all SDs have completed and we have sets too.

So that said, what are V's 3b! pre hands that get to the river this way?

3b! hands that x/c: AA/QQ.

Bluffcatchers: KQs, QJs

I think he bluffs his AcKx and maybe his JcTc.
I think he bet/fold his AQ and KK for thin value.
I think he bets and goes all the way with his A5s. He especially cannot miss value with his wheel that blocks the nuts. I'm not sure what he does with AA. Maybe b/f.

H is compressed to Ac5c, Ac2c and AQo, AcQc, straights and some sets. H has very few bluffs that get to the river this way I think.

For me, V cannot check/call with very much but his bluffcatchers and this is really only 6 combos before accounting for H's blockers. H, by contrast can rep way more value when wheel completes on river.

I like a river jam if H has 5x or Qx. For me this is more important than how many legit bluffs H can have. At 2-1, V has to fold everything but AA and QQ. So I want to block the top of his range here: A5s and QQ.

I don't like jamming with Qx on river. When he checks, there is a good chance he just has something like AK, AJ, KJ, and AQ is just going to be good. There is a small chance he is checking with AA, or KK, and still calls me. If I have a hand like JcTc, KcJc, KcTc, these hands probably have just about 0 EV if I check them back, but they can get A high to fold, so they make more sense as bluffs.

I think the tricky part is identifying which spots and players to be mixing these super light floats on the flop with 0-1 overcards and nothing but 2 backdoor and a dream.

Interesting spot, I'd just go small, you have a decent amount of valuebets and very few bluffs. I think KQ+ is good enough to valuebet. I wouldn't bluff A hi, let alone weak pairs, he has lots of giveups here so I'm just checking back to win sometimes. Afaik in these spots he should be overfolding tons on the river. His good hands and the good bluffs can just ship river easily and the rest of his range that checks is just deadwood so to say. He has some weaker Qx, maybe JJ-TT or some A4-A5 type stuff that can bluffcatch river, but it's mostly giveups and there's not much you can do about it. In practice even if you have 0 bluffs he will call off at least Qx vs a smaller sizing.

So, that makes sense to an extent. It is hard for him to call me, so maybe I bet small and hope for a crying call. But because he is going to be folding so much on this river, I think we may leave value on the table by not having bluffs here that will get him to fold. Specifically the K high club and J high club floats.

This is such a specific spot though, I feel like it is hard to identify when you are going through it. Generally in spots like these I am just saying, look, I am not going to float those weird GTO backdoor hands on the flop, and if I get to a node where I have no bluffs, oh well. Because it is hard to tell if it is going to be a spot where he is going to have a lot of double barrel river give-ups with A high or he is just going to be value heavy and calling with double backdoors is torching money. I think I would feel pretty silly on the turn if I had to fold JsTs... like why did I float this nonsense? lol

Or if I did float JcTc and he just jams on the river... I am probably again thinking why did I float the flop lol

But then with a set or 65, I am basically just like... sigh, I am never getting called here.

You say you can show up with 65s here. Can’t you also show up with 76s that had a backdoor flush draw on the flop but turned a pair? For that matter can you also have 54s?

This is not a good thought process, weak-tight kind of. That's why fit or fold players are so easy to play against. Imagine you only call flop with pairs and frontdoor draws, maybe AK and he checks turn. AK feels like a hand with SDV, and then you have A2s and A5s, 8 combos of bluffs at most, but even those don't necessarily raise pre, or call the 3b. So when you stab and he can comfortably snapfold stuff like 88.

When you contemplate floating the flop you seem to imagine bad scenarios only. JT is very borderline, but it could still turn a decent pair or a huge draw on basically half of the deck. Even when it doesn't he should check sometimes, then you have a printing bluff spot, especially if you don't get credit for light floats. If you think he don't slow down enough on the turn then ofc don't float him, but that is an adjustment that has to be based on a read, not the default.

This being said having a nutted hand IP when OOP goes 3b b b x is kind of sad no matter how much trash you float. You're up against a giveup like 75% of the time and your chance to get paid was probably him betting river.

At table, will look at this in detail later.

Quick glance, bluffs likely need a K in your hand and/or clubs. K♣︎ J♣︎, K♣︎T♣︎

J♣︎T♣︎, 6♣︎5♣︎ as well.


Just have to make sure you can show up here with value hands as well. Hands that that you would bet with.


If you always check back AQ or slow played AAÂ…..you canÂ’t bluff this.


Hard to have much different sizing than a jam here.



Also, if you donÂ’t float this flop with backdoors, IÂ’d add that to your arsenal.

Yes, but I still feel like those hands have a lot of SDV vs villains river check range.
Well said.

Of course I have value hands here, that is not hard. All sets and straights for sure, KK if I have it. Will probably never have AA at this depth, always 4 betting. Also, 65 is the nuts my dude.

~~~~

Okay, so just to be clear, the consensus is pretty much play like the solver vs this guy in this spot. Float KT, KJ, JT with a backdoor flushdraw on the flop, call those hands that picked up clubs on the turn, use these as bluffs on the river.

Let's say my jams are Ac5c, 65, 77, 44, 33, QQ, KK. I am going to say I have 9 combos total here because some of those might fold or 4bet pre, or raise on an earlier street. About a pot sized bet on the river, so need about 4.5 bluff combos. KTcc, KJcc, JTcc. I probably need some A4 and 76 as well or I won't have enough bluffs.

If I throw AQ in here I would need a couple more bluffs. 55 also can also work.

Personally, I'd rather have AA in my calling range rather than KK. KK is much more vulnerable. Obviously at a very low frequency.

I am not a fan of that play at 200 straddles deep. You could make an argument for it at 100 facing a large raise when you are in position. But this deep I am always going to 4bet aces.

KK is almost always a 4 bet too, but facing a SB 3bet which should be very strong, sometimes KK can just call.

Villain has a fairly balanced 3bet range, so I have a polar 4bet range to counter. I'd rather have the AA protecting my 4bet bluffs than my calling range.

Ok, had time to sit down and read.


I'll have to run this through PIO to be sure, but I think you can jam most any Ace here as well. The only Ax he should be check/calling with is AQ at a low frequency. He should be jamming most ever other Ace at this point. That's assuming he's semi balanced.

Depends what your and his actual ranges are IRL, but if pretty close to common solved ranges, I wouldn't be surprised if the solver is jamming just under half of your hands here. His check here opens the door pretty wide.

Probably able to jam most any A or K in your range, since he checked and that's pretty good blocking his range.


The robot overlord is pretty savage in spots like this.

I'm interested in the solver output, but I don't buy villain bluffing everything unpaired otr. In villains shoes I know I have tons of missed hands, this 3b b b line is easily overbluffed anyway, the river is a pretty big brick, A5s got there but the other 95% of my bluffs are left unimproved so I'm not very excited to pull the trigger here. Also live people often decide if they are willing to call river on the turn, so they either get here with a bluffcatcher planning to snap the shove or they folded that on the turn. H and V have some history that wasn't described very thoroughly but against a random guy at 5/10 I kind of hate bluffing this spot.

Curious what your polar 4bet range is.

It's not over bluffed when V only has so many A and Kx hands here. Which also block hero's calling range.


You'll be losing a ton of value not shipping this with A and Kx. Obviously not every one all the time. But most at a high frequency. If you're hero and he ships it for a pot sized bet here....what are you calling with?

The last sentence is backwards. We don't want to *not* take unexploitable lines with villains we don't have info on. The "random" guys are the ones we take equilibrium lines against. That's the whole point. I'm not sure why everyone wants to play exploitative poker against people they don't have history with.



Everyone seems to think they can play every hand......hand by hand.....in a vacuum.....and pick out the best exploitable line in that very moment......and then turn the switch back off and do it all over the next hand......that's just not how ti works and why most don't move up in stakes.

This is my thought (although it's 5/5, but similar to 5/10).

Also, H is UTG+2 in a straddled pot. H, how wide are you opening here? How wide are you calling a 3bet from this player?

Are these in your range: Ac5c, 65, 77, 44, 33? Seems wide for a true TAG from early position vs good players, but I do understand opening things up.

Position dependent, but in this position and stack depth, probably something like AA, AKs, KK 67%, QQ 33%, JJ 25%, AKo 50%, TT-99 10%, A5s 50%, A4s/KQs/KJs/KTs/AJs/ATs 25%, 87-65 10%.

Actually vs this villain I am thinking about going a little less heavy on the 4 bet folds and a little heavier on AKo and QQ+ because I have noticed he 5bet Jams some mid pocket pairs like 99, 88.

Vs regs with light/polar 3bet ranges I think I might be over 4betting actually, especially considering the game is unraked, pay for time, and a lot of my studying has come from raked 6 max charts, so I should have more calls than in a raked game.

Ac5c is going to be mixing 4bet and call, 77 probably a pure open, partial fold. 65 partial open, partial fold, low frequency 4 bet. 44, 33, low frequency opens and calls. This is 200 straddles deep. Also, again, I studied raked ranges so much I maybe should be wider pre.

Opening ranges generally from this spot are something like 77+, A9s+, A5s, A4s, AJo+, KQo+, K9s+, QTs+, J9s, T8s, T9, 98-65 mixed, 66-33 mixed.

Also, never said I was TAG. I try to be fairly balanced. But I am tight for the table, a lot of which plays their lower pairs, suited connectors, suited gappers wide even from earlier positions, against 3bets, as a cold call to open raises, etc.