Quote:
Originally Posted by submersible
what? im talking about betting 87 on the flop. you told me you need to bet 87 on the flop or you wont have any bluffs on an ace turn. that doesnt really make sense to me. youre going to have all of the broadway gutters and flush draws, and if you still want more bluffs use some of the underpair type combos.
youve played several hundred hours vs him and youve played a few multiway 3bet pots where he cold called. then you factor in how many different flops there are, how many turn and river permutations, and how many showdowns he would need to see before he'd be able to even guess that you dont have bluffs on some run outs and idk what to tell u. theres just absolutely no way even if he was hyper observant that he's going to pick up on this in any reasonable time frame.
it just feels like you're not adjusting to him playing something like 1.5% of hands here and this being multiway. btn may literally never fold the flop if his range is only pairs lol and you have a hand that more or less can't barrel. are you going to bet a T turn if you think his range is 99-QQ? like yeah here you get absolute gin run out to put the money in on as a bluff, but how often does that practically happen? you can maybe bet 4 6s, 3 7s, 3 8s, and 3 5s (5s probably a huge torch) and 4 Aces if you're feeling super frisky so like 65% of the time you're xfing and the rest we have rather unappealing (and potentially decently -ev) double barrel spots from equity / removal standpoint. reads also suggest this guy is probably not going to overfold. it just doesn't really seem like a hill to die on from a logical standpoint, and solver outputs are showing that to me from a theoretical standpoint.
I was talking about on turn, 87 has the same equity as an underpair, 2 outs, and underpairs that you have at low frequency are often viable low frequency bluffs when they unblock folds.
Yes, there are tons of different flops. But there are K high flops. There are boards with an A and K on them. Those will come up tons. The flop doesn't need to be the exact same. But again, this is a pretty moot point. I am trying to be maximally exploitative vs villain. Maybe he won't play on this texture enough for him to be able to pick up on the meta aspects. All I care about is that I think he overdefends vs flush draws on flop and turn, doesn't give himself enough board coverage for the A or K on the board to justify a flatting range pre, and overfolds to the river because of the leaks in his range.
I am adjusting to villain who is playing a narrow range, but because that range is weak and unbalanced towards hands that will not call 3 barrels. Not a GTO range.
Betting close to range, IE 1/4 pot cannot be that bad when I have ass loads of Kx, KK, AA, and I have all the best Kx, KK, AA and villains have none of it.
It's not a question of whether this is a hill to die on because solver mixes check here sometimes. If jamming is more EV than checking, then I jam because it makes more money, period. I wouldn't do it just for the sake of balance.
This isn't your typical player who going to cold call AK and isn't showing up to river with less than Kx or the nut flush draw. This is a player who probably plays his 6 combos of TT mainly like this, maybe some JJ, QQ. I would guess he would flat AK maybe 10% of the time if ever, maybe fractional amounts of KQs, KJs, KTs, but as I have seen him play those as low frequency cold 4s, I know these have to be somewhat discounted. He has the better part of 6 combos of TT here and less combos of Ax and Kx. He has a fold button.
Not all your bluffs have to be high equity bluffs. You need some hands that are low or no equity which unblock folds. This hand does that well.
Also, if we want to talk about balance, I am going to have 3 combos of AA, 3 combos of KK, 9 combos of AK, and fractional amounts of 9x, 99, 77, A9s. At equilibrium, I would need 1 bluff for every 1.86 value combos I jam. All of these hands are potential jam candidates, siggestinf I need at least 8 bluffs.
If I only 3bet 87s and 76s 25% of the time, I can only have 1.5 combos of those hands. QsJs is 1 combo I don't have pure that is nice because it doesn't block TT but does block AsQs and AsJs. I may need to turn other low SC flush draws into bluffs as well as lower pocket pairs I could have like 66. I don't know exactly where the threshold is, but I know 87s is going to be one of the best bluffing candidates on the river, and I can't have it unless I bet the flop and the turn. And I really dislike anything with a T in it because I believe villain does not fold or cold 4bet TT nearly as much as he should.
Keep in mind, I am not a maniac. I have good preflop ranges. I have give ups. When I jam, I have value most of the time. But I play in a way where I try to get all the money in pretty often and I am not afraid to do it with bluffs. I think I do a pretty good job of being a nightmare to be against. My image is not that of a spewtard.
On another note, today villain also cold called a 3bet only to fold to my 4bet with KK (I was the original raiser). I ended up stacking someone who cold called the 3bet and over calld. Villain declared he had QQ and held his hand after folding, later showing 1 Q. There was one Q on the board and it seems likely that the guy I stacked had a Q, so it is unlikely villain actually flatted then folded QQ. More likely I think it was AQs he cold called and then folded. At any rate, I still think it's only one combo of AsQs, maybe AsJs that I really had to worry about on river, and I think there are more PPs less than K that villain had on river.
