Quote:
Originally Posted by Mlark
My thought is, if v is ever weak here raising lile AT or something like that, do we fold out a lot of worse hands that would continue if we jam?
I admit I'm sometimes chicken-$hlt in spots like this, so take this FWIW...
Our hand is strong, but only going to improve about 40% of the time, if we see all five cards. A lot of turns are going to suck, especially if we're still 3 peeps when we get there. If we know it's going to be all but impossible for us to fold on anything but a four-flush/four-straight run-out, I think I want to raise now, if only to push V2 out of the car, and get this HU with V1.
We're not deep enough to raise anything less than all-in, so we might as well jam and pray.
For the same reason I don't want to risk letting an opponent catch up when I've got a strong but vulnerable hand, V1 could be doing this with a worse hand for value, worrying about you or V2 being on a draw.
If you jam, and either opponent already has you beat, we still have a 40% chance to boat up. If we fold out the dumb end of the straight, that's awesome. If we fold out a lot of hands we were beating, so be it. Worse value hands that will call seem at least as likely as better hands that will send us a gift basket for jamming.
If you jam, it'll be for more than half of their stacks. V2's going to spend a minute thinking about he'll be pot-committed to over-jam the rest, and the split equities from having to beat you in the main pot and V1 in the side pot if his hand is no good or he doesn't get there. He should know you're not jamming here as a bluff very often, if ever.
So...jam. Hope V2 folds. Hope V1 didn't just bink the Mlark lottery.