Game is 9 handed, 5/5 with mandatory 10 and optional restraddles. Time rake.

V1 is a retired recreational with plenty of money to gamble with. $2,600 effective, about same stack as hero. Limp calls fairly wide, but can include things like AK. Limp reraises some premiums like QQ, maybe JJ+, also sometimes just raises strong hands. Capable of folding but also capable of hero calling. Capable of bluffing too and leans towards smaller sizing on bluffs.

Hand history: I have gotten villain to fold a lot from bluffs, but he did recently call me down with top pair weak kicker on a double paired board (middle and bottom cards were paired). He raised my cbet on flop and I called with open ended, he checked turn, I lead river for 2/3 pot 1,200 into 1,800 and he tank called, but I was standing in standup game while he was sitting. He had JT on T9933 and I had J8s.

V2 is a tightish reg/rec type. Haven't seen him show many if any bluffs. $2k stack.

Folds to V1 on button who limps $20, folds to V2 $10 straddle, hero on $20 straddle checks with Ac4s.

Flop $70:6c4c3c

V2 leads for $25, Hero calls, v1 raises to $100, v2 folds, hero calls.

Turn $295 6c4c3c6h hero checks, v1 bets $125, hero calls.

River $545 6c4c3c6hTh hero checks, v1 bets $125. Villain has $2,230 behind. Hero?

Analysis:

Flop seems relatively uncapped, turn it is unclear. My read on the river is that he is capped. I don't think my hand is good, considering a big raise.

I expect Hero to win some of the time by just calling. Maybe villain has worse 4x and some other weak bluffs.

I don't think a river raise is very credible or that you can rep a flush. 6x is more plausible.

I'm also not sure what better hands you are targetting that you expect to fold - like 55, 77-99?

I think I fold turn.

Agree that your hand is hardly ever good on the river.

Cannot really tell if V is capped, some people might take this line with a boat.

However, assuming he is capped but not bluffing, what could his range be? I'd say baby flushes, some combo of 75, some big pair with a club, like JJ-KK ? Maybe 99?
I am not sure how much of this range is the described V wiling to fold on the river.

just dont think he really has weak hands that he's going to bet ip. if he's oop i could see him doing some weird blocker thing with hands that aren't worth a bet just because he doesn't want to check and face a bet but here he's ip. if he's got a weak hand he can just check and show down. that would dissuade me quite a bit from bluffing here i think. with that said im not entirely sure what he has when he takes this sizing scheme so i could see an argument for calling but like idk, i think this is incredibly under bluffed and you have the most likely card he could find a bluff with.

backraising flop is tempting but i think its hard for us to rep many axcc given pre

idk man i guess id just fold although i can see why you'd want to raise (his turn and river sizing and with Ac if he doesnt have a boat he may find it hard to call, we do also have quite alot of boats here given we x btn straddle). i dont think the recent history of bluffing matters too much for this decision. im just not sure what the bottom of his range is otr to actually value bet despite the sizing looking weak.

I dont mind the play. But people hate folding aa-qq it seems at all stakes. I think your size was too big though. Pick a size that gets what you want to fold. Here the difference from $600 to $1000 is small on hands that will call. So why risk the extra $400?

yeah peoples heroing frequency goes through the roof when they do something weird or wrong earlier in a hand imo. i think you're trying to make a straight or like jc2c or a6 fold (from our sizing - we're trying to fold 60% of his range in a spot we dont think he has many / any bluffs and prior to results id be surprised to see objectively thin value bets) all of which seem optimistic

it reminds me a bit of the patrick wcg hand at aussie millions forever ago

What are those value hands?


I feel like it's fine to bluff a bunch of money on this hand with the Ac ... but this line isn't it.

If we raise, or even backraise the flop and then keep playing it as we would with the nut flush ... I think it's fine. But I don't see you playing Ac2c this way post flop, so it seems bad to have this blocker.

64, 66, 44, 63, 33, flushes.

Part of what factored into my decision was having the 4 blocker blocking boats myself. The Ac seemed decent as well in that it blocked flushes too.

Pair and nut flush draw would be a disaster to fold.

If you wanted to play it aggressive, i see nothing wrong with re-raising the flop and not folding. You have the nut blocker and for 100bb you can't make a huge mistake doing this. Verses his actual hand you were 50/50 - although you didn't know that at the time, but even verses most of his holdings you aren't doing that bad. You also have a lot of fold equity. The turn would be pretty bad if he just called, and i'd be checking the turn a lot - so gonna be hard to win this hand with pure aggression on the turn card.

What would you do here with the the nut flush?

The river raise makes no sense, and for that sizing - he's never folding. As played i'd just check fold, you got to see the river for cheap, and you hold the card that he would be bluffing with. He has a better hand almost always, and i'd just fold.

uh getting in 37x pot otf (even more so when there's 2 straight flushes) isnt ok or good or something you cant make a huge mistake doing lol.

you can probably rep like maybe a2cc, a7cc, a8cc, 75cc, 52cc given pre and then becomes even more discounted when u just flat the flop lead compared to ~20ish combos of the Bare ace. would not recommend

i mean river raise is fine he probably reps like 15 possible combos of value (some form of discounted 33, 44, 66, 64, 63; i dont think you get put on flushes here) and its a complicated bluff i just think if guy has a hand he doesn't think is best he is going to check behind otr and its fish in weird / non standard spot so hes probably not going to understand ranges / nuance here at all. like his river bet initially and the b/c are wild. betting with KK twice after the 6 pairs after raising mono / straightening board into 2 in limped pot is absurd

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NfpQXH_3gPQ - the hand it reminded me of

I'd raise the flop - as played OTR I'd just fold but I don't hate raising in the moment given his small bet size. These live games are so unbalanced that it's really player/game dependent - I think in theory we always like attacking small river bets when we're lower in our range, but people are so exploitive in these games that it could be really good or really bad. The fact that this guy called with what he did must mean it was a terrible play given he called with what is the middle of his range and you made a massive raise.