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Originally Posted by ChaosInEquilibrium
I don’t see this board as a particularly great one for our range (compared to the rest of the field) so, in theory I don’t think we’re supposed to have a leading range. I choose to not have a lead here in 5/T because I don’t lead boards 5-ways unless they board gives me a significant advantage.
That said, I can see playing a lead here as an exploitative adjustment.
First thanks for a good reply. I'm just isolating part of it.
So, well, yes. exploitative play should be about 95% of what we consider and GTO maybe 5%. But even so, I'm not sure GTO would be that divergent here.
Shouldn't the hand theoretically play more "honest" as it gets more multiway? As mentioned one reason is because you shouldn't expect any particular opponent behind you to bet here unless you're behind. Another is that bluffs are much less likely to succeed, and at equilibrium 4 players collectively shoulder the burden of keeping the 5th honest.
Therefore, statements like, "in theory I don’t think we’re supposed to have a leading range," seem tailored to a 2- or 3-way pot against unexploitable play, not 5-way. Likewise (later):
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Originally Posted by ChaosInEquilibrium
You probably have the weakest range on this board, out of all players, because you have the widest preflop range.
On this flop, against excellent hand readers, this will matter a bit, e.g. 2nd limper might consider BB's range if pondering leading with a middling hand like a four. It won't matter anywhere near as much as it would HU or 3w. (No huge insight there.)
In fairness you were also carrying this discussion through to the turn play, and HU vs a good opponent obviously GTO matters more. However, at this point everything in the hand has been so cattywampus that GTO's practical value is limited. Bad preflop call, 5-way action, etc. -- you might play 1000 hours with this opponent and not get in another spot that's all that comparable, let alone enough sample for him to judge frequencies.
(Not to assume CO is good since that's not stated; just that he would need to be observant for our weak range to matter here.)
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In fairness I'm way out of my league theorizing re: GTO in 5-way pots so if I'm wrong in anything above, all ears.
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Let’s forget SB for the moment, since he’s an irrelevant short stack from everyone’s perspective.
(Aside: Why short-stacking can be profitable... but OK, ignoring him.)
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My reaction (from COs perspective) to seeing a flop donk bet followed by turn check-raise would be that my opponent is clicking buttons, making random weird plays. It’s such a strange line after all. I’d never fold a hand as strong as AK to this weird line.
That makes me feel validated for clicking weird buttons to confuse good opponents.
I suspect many live unknows really will fold TPTK to an unknown (to them) taking a weird and very aggressive line. I would. With a true XR Hero would be unmistakably declaring that he can beat a one-pair hand, specifically, "Aha! I tricked you because you thought I hated that king, but I really love my hand so much I hope
you like that king and will pay me off!" AK is just a pretty bluff-catcher now, so the usual factors of bluff catching on the turn apply: pot odds, observed barreling tendencies on the river, and other reads.
Not sure if you were really talking about that hypothetical where SB checks, since you said XR.
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As played after CO raises, Hero's considering a weird backraise, much more likely to get called. Maybe that's what your comment was referring to as pushing buttons. But we can't really ignore SB because we have to beat his hand for all the money in the middle. Generally I'd assume an underbet range is weak kings, heart draws, and
maybe an occasional straight draw. But here his stack size and the remaining round to play weights it heavily toward the draws. Is he really going to sweeten the pot then fold the river with a weak TP? No, but he'd like to see the river card cheap and then fold his misses.
Against that range we probably do want to raise to knock CO out and draw on the river/show down. But his miniscule underbet has really messed up our planning.
Once we decline to raise and it comes back to us, just dump it. Two players have something they like (even the draw taints our outs badly) and we're just spewing money.
Last edited by AKQJ10; 07-29-2021 at 04:20 PM.