Villain is a decent live pro who plays a mix of no-limit and $20/40 limit. He's pretty TAG and usually plays solidly. I'd describe his play as above average for a live reg but I don't consider him very dangerous (capable of sick deep bluffs or huge laydowns). I think he can be a bit stationey in small and medium pots because of limit play.

Hero is a no-limit specialist who plays TAG/LAG. I'd say hero is solid but tricky and capable of showing up with weird hands or taking unorthodox lines for value. Villain respects hero's play. Biggest pot I've played vs villain was when one time I overlimped AA in EP and backraised villain's big iso-raise after several limpers, and villain shoved AKo pre for about 180BB pre and I snap-called obv.

The hand: Hero has about $5K, and villain covers.

Folded to me on the button and I raise 88 to $25. I'm opening a very wide range here on the button. SB folds and villain defends his BB.

Flop 422 (pot $55)

BB checks. I bet $25.

I bet small here because it's a super dry garbage flop and I'm trying to induce a call. Villain calls pretty quickly.

Turn 6 (pot $105)

BB checks. I bet $60. Villain thinks a bit and calls.

River 5 (pot $225)

BB checks. I bet $150 pretty quickly. I'm trying to rep a polarized hand and get called by any pair or ace-high. I also beat 65/64/54 which are all possible. Villain can't really have an overpair except maybe 99. I think he always 3-bets TT+ pre so my hand is essentially as strong as AA.

Villain thinks a while and raises to $450.

What is he repping? Given stack sizes I think he's raising 44/22/66 on the turn to try to build the pot, so it seems like the only boat he can have is 55. Since it's pretty hard to have exactly 55, doesn't he have 3x a lot? 33/A3/43s/53s?

Hero now raises to $1500. Thoughts?

hmm have to think about it. 3b river doesnt come to mind as often as folding does. fwiw, Id check back river.

good post

I think his hand is more weighted to stronger hands (boats) than weaker hands (just a 3) because you've made a larger river bet that he's decided to raise. You bet 45% pot, then 57% pot, and now 67% pot. You're right that this larger bet is a more polarized bet. You're repping AA at the very lowest of your range (I understand your hand is about the same as AA) upwards to straights and boats, or a complete bluff. It's hard for him to have the higher straights unless you think he's willing to float the flop OOP with those hands (assuming with backdoor flush draws) and try to take the pot away later. Probably not, given your description.

So if he puts you on that polarized range, he'll just call unless he has a boat himself. Unless:
Have you seen him raise in spots like this before with just a 3 (or a hand of equivalent relative strength) where it's unlikely he'll be called by worse?

You claimed before that you don't think he's capable of sick bluffs or huge laydowns. So you don't think he's bluffing, and you don't think he can make a big laydown. So why are you trying to bluff what seems to be a strong hand here?

I understand your thin value bet, although if you want to get called by just Ace high or a small pair, you should bet smaller, closer to half pot, less polarized. This will also save you money if you want to balance your river thin value bets with your river bluffs in the future. Assuming he's an observant player.

I don't think $1K more with a 3 would be a "huge" laydown.

I like the river bet, I think I just fold now given your description of villain.

It's true that your range is a lot stronger/has more strong hands than villain but he doesnt have THAT many naked 3x in his pre range and certainly his raise range on river is a lot more weighted towards strong hands. Even if he DOES raise other boats earlier which is not always true, 3 combos of 55 and 1 combo of quads is more hands than no combos of 3x that raise folds this sizing.

Earlier I said your range is wider and can have more boats/strong hands; that makes me think he's less likely to bluff or value raise thin making his raising range a bit too strong for my liking.

I've played people who'd fold boats here though lol.

Gotta bet this river 100% of the time vs described villain

How often does villain see you triple barrel?

How do you know he is chr'ing the turn if he flopped/backed into a FH?

I don't know the villain, but I agree with 11t, what makes you think he is raising OTT with boats/quads? He doesn't seem like the type to x/r bluff the river, or the type to raise/fold the river (with a hand like 3x, or A2 etc).

I think this is a cool line, but I don't like it based on reads. I dont think villain is capable of laying down a boat and is hero calling a straight.

I think the river bet is fine, but once he check raises after playing passively, I don't see what a 3b does for other than allow villain to fold out worse and shove better. So unless you really think you can get him off a lone 3, I don't like that play.

The key here is that your bet "repped a polarized hand and get called by any pair or ace-high." If villain is competen, he will realize this and still call the $1500.

I probably just flat his cr on the river. I have a tough time folding.

Any thoughts of checking the turn?

Why are we bluffing a live station pro whose range has ALOT of 3s?

I think he may have air here 20 percent, but that is way too low to be plus ev...
I don't think this guy is one to c/r w less than the goods? I think he calls w a 3 and may well 4bets better.

Metagame matters a lot here. How much river hist/showdowns have yall had together?

Wp, now fold.

yeah this

Raise to 40+ pre vs described villian and fold on river. I like the line but not vs this villian, I find limit players to be unresonably sticky especially in hu pots.

I don't think he's tricky enough to slowplay a boat on the turn OOP because he'd want to build the pot.

I don't think he's bluffing very often (although it's a non zero chance). Once I 3-bet I don't think he can call with a straight though. It's $1050 more and I have a solid image vs him.

Your open was small. Maybe he doesn't think your range is very strong. Raising the turn with a boat prob isn't getting max value hence calling and x/r river.

Not many boats or straights in your range. You are repping hands like aces up which his range is still ahead of. I think the issue is your value range is behind his x/r range . Maybe I am missing something? Seems like a snap with a 3.

I have like no faith in people folding a 3 here.

I wouldn't classify this as spew but without a history of villain trying to turn a made hand into a bluff we are basically trying to get him to fold a lot of absolute value hands that are pretty strong and I'm unsure how good that is.

Op, it seems like you want people to say 3b river is best, and I'm sure that's what you did and that it worked. However, with the info you gave us, 3b is spewy. You said he can't call with a straight. But he can because you are tricky and good and therefore you have a bluffing range. Also your line isn't consistent with a boat+ imo. You would have bet bigger on flop or turn this deep. And would you really bomb 3b all your boats this deep? Hoping to get called by what???

Anyways, glad it worked (assuming it did), and maybe there's info not itt that makes it ok or even best. But from what you gave us, folding seems clearly the better option.

I think all my value bets here are sized the same way. My bet sizes are based more on board texture than my hand strength. I could have anything from 77+ for value. I also could have boats like 42s, but probably not 42o.

Are you saying I'd 3-bet smaller with a boat? That might be true, but vs someone who plays a lot of limit I think in general bigger is better so they don't go "lol pot odds."

I like a bigger raise pre on the button, 40 would be standard for me as others have said. I'm usually betting more like 2/3 on the flop but on the whole I think the play works ok until the river. I think the bet on the river is fine but I'd usually fold to the river CR in this situation myself. I don't like the 3bet - don't see the described V calling your 3 bet with worse or that he's very often folding better when he's getting about 2.3-1 to call your 1K raise.

a plyr w/ his profile is folding 0% of the hands he raises the river with,
esp. w/ your perceived image; he's not spazzing out,
thats the only scenario in which this play works, and that's not whats happening here.
he has a hand. there are gazillions of random combos that he would never fold, and it's so unlikely he has air, which is all you beat, really, that and 77, which he is never playing like this. I can't even think of a hand he could turn up with to have turned into a bluff?
it's the perfect spot to not turn your 88 into a bluff.
...or we can pretend V has a different profile, or tendencies than he really does??

If you had what you are repping, you would be getting paid off here w/ your image, right? if you had it.
youre not really repping a hand that V thinks he doesnt beat. If you had a boat, you are getting his monies here. therefore this has gotta be a long-shot bluff, imo.

Actually my image vs him is that I've always had it lol. I don't think I've ever showed down a bluff vs him yet (beyond a standard c-bet or maybe double barrel), but have shown weird value lines like the AA overlimp and backraise.

'solid but tricky'

he might also not appreciate how much insane strength your river 3-bet is trying to rep?

If he tanked, you gave it a good shot.

Not sure if I should post results yet. I did throw a curveball.

If he never expects you to have anything on the turn (which he shouldn't), why would he c/r his boats? He can't "build a pot" if he thinks you have air and/or not enough to continue. He wants you to either value bet or bluff the river, so his line makes sense with boats.

Plus, if you think he's bluffing, can't you just call his c/r? Him turning 99+ into a bluff seems beyond terrible. I don't see any point to re-bluff; it just seems like you're turning this into a dick-waving contest for no reason.

Eh, seems spewy. I'm not convinced he always raises boats on the turn or that he always folds a 3 to your 3b.