5/10 turn decision - Page 2 - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

I agree ^^.

But if we know V is going to shove all rivers, what are the blank rivers that would make hero more likely to call? And what rivers would make hero more likely to fold?

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03-24-2015 , 04:50 PM

#28

nrc

stranger

Join Date: May 2014 Posts: 6

Quote:

Originally Posted by SecondChance

This is so untrue.

Just because YOU fold all worse doesn't mean other people do.

And sometimes, it's a good thing that 9x folds. Ever hear of suckouts?

lol. If you shove with JJ, villain with 9x folds and you think that is "sometimes a good thing" because he would be drawing to 5 outs, you are bad at poker.

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03-24-2015 , 07:19 PM

#29

The Muffin Man

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Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 2,023

Quote:

Originally Posted by SecondChance

Regarding the hand, easiest shove in the world, too many draws and you're crushing his range.

I'm curious what you think villain's range is here.

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03-25-2015 , 03:49 AM

#30

SecondChance

adept

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 974

Quote:

Originally Posted by nrc

lol. If you shove with JJ, villain with 9x folds and you think that is "sometimes a good thing" because he would be drawing to 5 outs, you are bad at poker.

Do you know what the word "sometimes" means? Even though, on average, he will only suckout 10% of the time, "sometimes" it happens. Furthermore, you're also not including the fact that there is already a ton of money in the pot, so even if he had 30% equity, it would be a break even call.

Making a call with 10% equity isn't the worst thing in the world, and sometimes, it doesn't work out in your favor.

Especially, when he pretty much always checks behind his 9x if he doesn't hit, yet puts you all in for 500+ more when he does.

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03-25-2015 , 03:51 AM

#31

SecondChance

adept

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 974

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Muffin Man

I'm curious what you think villain's range is here.

Lots of 1 pair hands raising to get money from draws+see where you're at, taking advantage of position.

Most 2pair/sets/str8s would raise flop, with a fd out there.

I'd say you're ahead 70%+ of the time here, easily, if not 80%+

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03-25-2015 , 04:17 AM

#32

daniel9861

veteran

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 3,389

Feels like his range for raising is flopped straight and FD's w/ no SD value which are hands that kinda make sense to shove on most rivers. Don't really expect 2pair to flat flop and raise turn so small and I would think sets also raise flop with the board so wet and a player to act behind. Pair + gutter most likely just peels turn again in position. So maybe like discounted sets flopped straight and FDs w/ no SD value is his range here w/ FDs bluffing river 100% of the time unless it rivers a weakish top pair.

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03-25-2015 , 10:43 AM

#33

The Muffin Man

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Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 2,023

Quote:

Originally Posted by SecondChance

I'd say you're ahead 70%+ of the time here, easily, if not 80%+

Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. Mind giving us a list of hands that we can put into pokerstove?

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03-25-2015 , 10:45 AM

#34

The Muffin Man

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Join Date: Dec 2009 Posts: 2,023

pgcounty, do you hold the J

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03-25-2015 , 08:30 PM

#35

SecondChance

adept

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 974

Quote:

Originally Posted by The Muffin Man

Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. Mind giving us a list of hands that we can put into pokerstove?

The problem with pokerstove is that it weights all hands as equal possibilities. For example, even though 55, 77, 99, and 22 are all "possible", most of the time they'd be raised or folded on the flop, therefore, must be heavily discounted.

Whereas, hands like 98, 9T, J9, A9, TT, 88, 66, 56, 78 are far more likely to take this line, and therefore, are much more heavily counted. (Not to mention, there are far more combos of these as well)

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03-25-2015 , 10:17 PM

#36

daniel9861

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Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 3,389

You can discount combos in pokerstove by specifying certain suits.

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03-25-2015 , 10:21 PM

#37

Renton555

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 5,905

Greater than 70% equity is a laughably absurd assumption. SecondChance, either you play in the best games on the planet or have the most aggressive spewy image on the planet, or a combination thereof. Your tendency to project your game dynamic onto the OPs of threads in this forum is misleading and generally harmful to the discussion.

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03-25-2015 , 11:22 PM

#38

TimeBomb

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 1,676

Quote:

Originally Posted by Renton555

I actually generally agree with second chance on this one. While I don't think we are 70% on this turn, I just can't believe vill has it most of the time here. Also the times vill is doing this with a 9 I'm sure he shuts down on river.

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03-26-2015 , 12:06 AM

#39

SecondChance

adept

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 974

Quote:

Originally Posted by Renton555

Maybe. Or maybe you just can't read obvious lines. Big hands almost always don't slow play that flop and frankly, there aren't that many of them.

A call on a drawy flop in position+then a raise on turn=almost always to get free showdown/charge draws.

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03-26-2015 , 03:02 AM

#40

Midnight Cowboy

grinder

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 549

Quote:

Originally Posted by DGAF

Isn't this a spot where people like to "take control" of the hand?

Agreed...villain's line reeks of strength.

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03-26-2015 , 04:52 AM

#41

SecondChance

adept

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 974

Quote:

Originally Posted by Renton555

Also, minor note. If you read my post, it says AHEAD 70% of the time, not that I think we have 70% equity. Just fyi

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03-27-2015 , 01:41 AM

#42

SABR42

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 23,076

I don't like the flop sizing. Surprised no one has mentioned that.

As played it's pretty easy fold. Your line looks like an obvious overpair wtf are you expecting here? It's really that easy to trap people ITT? Please play in my games.

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03-27-2015 , 09:17 PM

#43

Jules22

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2003 Posts: 4,156

We really want to pile it in here with a pair of jacks?

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03-28-2015 , 01:02 AM

#44

TimeBomb

old hand

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 1,676

Quote:

Originally Posted by SABR42

75 into 110 looks fine to me, always better to bet on the larger side on wet boards. I don't see how raising pre and firing twice is an obv overpair nobody ever thinks I have one when I do it. Where's your game?

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03-28-2015 , 01:34 AM

#45

Renton555

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 5,905

When they don't think you have an overpair they usually respond by calling, not raising.

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03-28-2015 , 08:09 AM

#46

grant2

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 9,530

If I'm playing good, I can fold the turn. I feel like "competent" players almost never float/raise wet flops like that.

If you decide to call the turn, then you at least have to also call a brick river otherwise the turn call is just throwing money away.

If you decide to call the turn, pushing is probably a better option. Villain push on the river is rather polarized, but raising the turn makes it more likely you can get value from the portion of the villain's range that has showdown equity (i.e., the hands he'd check behind on the river ... 88, A9, etc.)

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