Villain and I are both regs at 2/5 and have played a ton together. We both view each other as competent and respect each others game. Villain is a buy more loose than hero, but not a maniac or anything, but can make moves. Neither are scared money at 2/5.

List for 2/5 was insanely long, so hero decides to take a small shot at 5/10 as there are several huge donators at the table and no waiting list.

Effective stacks - $1100ish, villain covers.

Several limpers and hero opens AdQs on the button to $45, which in retrospect was way too small for 5/10. Villain calls in bb, mp calls.

Flop, 3 players - $150ish

Ac Qd 4d

All check, hero bets $125, villain calls, mp folds.

Turn, HU, $400

3h

Villain checks, hero bets $325, villain tank calls.

River, HU, $1050

9d

Villain shoves for $550, hero...???

Snap call given that were getting ~3:1 or is this not quite so easy given villain played it just like a draw.

You said he's competent so it's unlikely he's drawing on the turn.

Your post didn't say what the river card is but he's like never bluffing here.

I think you'll get showed a slow played set of 4s a lot that feels you might check back the river with AK when the draw hit.

So in conclusion, you're beat when he has a set and you're beat if for some awful reason he decided to draw on the turn oop and getting terrible odds.

Just cry and muck and let someone else bluff catch a crappy spot like this. Do start taking more notes on him if you are confused on a spot like this tho...

Sorry, I fixed the river... 9d.

You need to be good ~25% of the time to call here. I don't think you are. His line is consistent with AX or K10. I doubt he turns something like A8 or KQ into a bluff here since he sees how good odds you'll be getting, plus he has showdown value. Against bad players you could call here, because sometimes they'll have like AK or AJ here (it's like they play the hand normally, then on the river their mind goes blank and they say "I have top pair, only 1/2 pot sized bet left, I'll just auto shove for no reason"). But against a competent player I just think this is a flush more than 75% of the time.

On 2nd look he might turn an AdJ hand in to a bluff like 10% of the times IF he knows you fold to flush out rivers like every time.

If he does wake up with a random hand that you beat here, he played it horribly.

Think about it, he has to have called a HUGE turn bet oop either drawing to a flush or hoping a flush hits on the river so he can bluff you off with his random hand. Not very likely to me so I'm just gonna go with 44 or KdJd / JdTd that got there anyways.

unless he can turn aj into a bluff i think you have to fold here. if he shows a bluff take note and adjust accordingly

You play with him a lot, how does he play draws? Would he raise otf with a fd? How can anyone say he has a set of 4s when be would try to protect against draws. He doesn't have Ad hero has it so you have blockers to the nut. If he's competent does he shove with the non-nut fd as hero could be proceeding with Axd also. I really want to call

Oh I didn't see the Ad from hero, in that case there's like no bluffs.

You slow play the set cause hero only has 1 combo that's drawing AdKd.

Oh wow, I didn't notice hero has the A. Well that actually changes quite a lot. He has either K10, KJ, 35, K3, ect, A9o or A9 suited, and a rare AK/AJ/A10/KQ shoving river for no good reason.

This a tough one because he would never be calling the turn with just a lone flush draw, but he could call if he had a pair + FD or gutshot + FD. I think I make the crying call here now that I see he can't have AX. Call and hope to see an occasional A9 or AK.

Think I fold here. Pretty unlikely that villian called two streets just to jam the bluff card with u priced in IMO.

Also, as rounder said, u guys play together a ton, u don't have info that could help you out here?

I think that's terrible cause you need at least 25% times to catch this bluff to win and the chance of A9 AK is like 3% at best.

Without the Ad for villian, it's even less likely for him to run a bluff.

Random AK imo checks and cry call the river and be happy with 2 streets of value.

Villain is certainly not putting you on a flush, therefore, it's a perfect card to bluff with
If he is described as "capable of making moves", I can find a call here.

you said you played tons of hands together yet you didn't give any hands in the notes?
what are villain tendencies?
does villain c/c draws?
does villain c/c flop + turn bets with value hands then all of sudden turn his value hand into a bluff???

anyway we only know villain is looser than hero and competent
which opens up alot of different kinds of interpretation

i believe his most likely range is kj/10j

competent villain shouldn't bluff this river card when you pot commit yourself on the turn

seems like a fold

in order for a competent villain to bluff this river, he has to put you on marginal hands for barreling turn
or unless you often fold to pressure/scare cards

otherwise this is standard fold

I think you have to fold here. A few reasons:

1. c/c, c/c, shove is usually an unbalanced line towards very strong hands without further reads
2. Your turn bet represents a lot of strength. 3h is not a likely card for your to barrel, so from villain's point of view you are either continuing to bet a strong draw like AdXd, or have TPGK+.
3. Villain shouldn't be bluffing river very often because of #2 and because you could have the flush yourself.
4. Villain would be valuebetting here because betting for him is better than c/c. Your range has strong non-flush components (AA, QQ, AQ, AK) some of which you might check back on this river, and also has flushes in it. If he plans to c/c, he will let some of your worse made hands check back, but you will bet all your flushes for sure, so if he has a hand like KdTd or JdTd he has to bet.

Villains tendencies are important, but so are your own. Remember, villain has reads on you.

Have you ever double barreled with a flush draw? Even if you have, it was at 2/5 where, admittedly, you are comfortable and not scared money. This is a shot @ 5/10, and, maybe in villains eyes you'd play a draw more passively. Vil can now call our turn bet with a plan to bluff shove the river with a hand that has showdown value.

It's definitely spew, but if he's good and not scared $$ its possible.

Swimmin:

He is definitely capable of bluffing a scare card like the river. He has seen me make some huge calls at 2/5 and make big semi bluffs with draws 300bb deep +. He may view me as being a little bit nitty in this session, as 5/10 is obv not as comfortable for me the way 2/5 is.

Villian has to read u for AK or better and he chose to shove with u essentially pot committed. I think this is the most important info. Unless u think he might do this with A4 or A3, its a fold. With those hands though he prob gets it in sooner.

Any results for us?

Shrug call, if u planned on folding to d river bets on flop and turn could be smaller.

Results:

Hero calls, villain says, "dammit!" (???) ... then flips over 5d 6d. He called off the turn bet because he hit a redraw to the oesd, then binked the flush. Hero mucks.