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5/10 stupid pot odds 5/10 stupid pot odds

04-28-2013 , 08:49 AM
v1: middle aged white guy, not a solild player, will bet big if he has a perceived monster... such as check raise huge with a-10 on a a-a-9 board... $2500

v2: older asian guy, has not been active, had a shorter stack initially, but then bought in to the 2k max... $2000

hero: probably perceived as decent to solid, haven't shown any bluffs and haven't played too many hands... $3800

9 handed, 2 limps from early to mid, v1 limps, hero sees k-j spades and decides to bump it up to 50, expecting to either take it down or go heads up with v1...

v2 is the SB surprisingly reraises to 180... folds to v1 who decides to flat... an obvious non high pocket pair poorly played...

hero decides to call given the pot odds... correct? not 100% v2 definitely has aa or kk but very aware of the possibility...

flop: j-3-7, one spade

v2 bets 250, v1 folds... hero calls... is this horrible? again, i feel like pot odds demand a call plus it could be a cbet...

turn: 2 spade, giving hero a flush draw too... v2 bets 375... hero calls...

now hero is pretty certain v2 has aa but again, pot odds right? should we be discounting the 3 remaining k's as outs? i'm quite certain the jacks and spades are clean outs...
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04-28-2013 , 11:06 AM
I think you should fold to the 3 bet pre flop. You got one of the best fops you could hope for, and still know that you are way behind. Then you pick up a draw on the turn and now are throwing good money after bad. KJ is a hand that is going to dominated a lot in these situations, so one pair is just going to give you RIO. In addition, I think you assume too much about villain #1 and what his call preflop means. He could also easily have a hand like AJ+, 88+. You are in rough shape against these two villains ranges (villain #2 sounds like he has AK, JJ+ from description). Fold pre and you don't encounter these situations.

As played, call turn and hope to suck out
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04-28-2013 , 04:12 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rbenuck4
I think you should fold to the 3 bet pre flop. You got one of the best fops you could hope for, and still know that you are way behind. Then you pick up a draw on the turn and now are throwing good money after bad. KJ is a hand that is going to dominated a lot in these situations, so one pair is just going to give you RIO. In addition, I think you assume too much about villain #1 and what his call preflop means. He could also easily have a hand like AJ+, 88+. You are in rough shape against these two villains ranges (villain #2 sounds like he has AK, JJ+ from description). Fold pre and you don't encounter these situations.

As played, call turn and hope to suck out
This. /thread
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04-28-2013 , 04:34 PM
I'd call the 3bet, call the flop, and call or ship the turn- depending on a lot of things.
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04-28-2013 , 06:32 PM
I know kj is the poster child for rio. But it was only 130 and the pot was 450. Pot odds 22.4%. Too good to pass up is why i called. Plus i feel it is a good idea playing against opponents when their hands are face up, in the case of v2 and we are both deep.

However i'm here to listen to other opinions. Do others feel it is an open shut fold pre?

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04-28-2013 , 06:41 PM
Regarding v1's range. I have seen him limp and fold to a raise many times. To limp for 10 and then cold call sb's 3bet of 180 makes me think pocket pair that has to see the flop. Otherwise i have no idea what he is folding all those other times. It's not like he played every hand.

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04-28-2013 , 10:06 PM
You will almost never catch me calling a 3bet with KJ.
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04-29-2013 , 10:23 AM
I mean, as played, I would say flop is actually worse than pre (against this villain) even though you flopped top pair. That just illustrates the point. You need two pair or combo-draw-type hands to continue. Would be less terrible if V2 had more money, but then would he go crazy with an overpair (to justify the implied odds)? You need to know the answer to the question "how deep will villain go broke with one pair?" before you even proceed.
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04-29-2013 , 01:41 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by IronedSheik
I mean, as played, I would say flop is actually worse than pre (against this villain) even though you flopped top pair. That just illustrates the point. You need two pair or combo-draw-type hands to continue. Would be less terrible if V2 had more money, but then would he go crazy with an overpair (to justify the implied odds)? You need to know the answer to the question "how deep will villain go broke with one pair?" before you even proceed.
Are you saying we shouldn't call if he won't go broke with one pair, or we should call if he won't go broke with one pair?
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04-29-2013 , 03:28 PM
The former. Though you don't need him to go broke exactly. Obviously if you knew he would never go broke with an overpair you could float, etc., too. But the float/raise after a turn bet is gonna be low-leverage at best.

You have about 3.4% to flop a made better hand against AKs+/KK/AA if that's villain's range. SPR is about 3.7 after the flop. So you need him to go broke when you hit OESD without a FD (and, needless to say, any K or J outs, some of which may be removed).
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04-29-2013 , 03:32 PM
Fold pre if you are posting this hand.
fold flop unless you have a plan for non K,J turns
ott, call and shove are close. I am definitely shoving against young kid but not sure about this villain.
If J are outs, how come K are not outs for u unless u put him on KK lol
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04-30-2013 , 10:04 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by IronedSheik
I mean, as played, I would say flop is actually worse than pre (against this villain) even though you flopped top pair. That just illustrates the point. You need two pair or combo-draw-type hands to continue. Would be less terrible if V2 had more money, but then would he go crazy with an overpair (to justify the implied odds)? You need to know the answer to the question "how deep will villain go broke with one pair?" before you even proceed.
i agree with you. i thought this particular hand had some close to bad calls by me and just wanted verification... i still think the preflop call was ok because i was not hoping to flop tp but combo draw and there was a lot of money in...

however, i think i got confused when i did flop tp no draw and he bet not the biggest amount...

i think i should have folded the flop...

however, he was an older asian guy and i think he would have trouble folding his aces if i did hit jin on the turn...

this is my takeaway... pre call debatable, flop call bad, turn call/raise ok...
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04-30-2013 , 03:01 PM
FWIW, I like call rather than jam turn since your flush is backdoor.
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04-30-2013 , 09:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rdnatm
this is my takeaway... pre call debatable, flop call bad, turn call/raise ok...
Mistakes compound. Making a mistake early in the hand (even a debatable one) snowballs to causing very expensive problems later. The fact that you were willing to call this flop proves that preflop is a giant mistake as well.
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05-07-2013 , 10:11 PM
First time in MHSNL, I play 2/5 and usually post in LSNL so take my opinion for what its worth, but I am surprised that no one suggested just overlimping pre with KJs. This is a perfect hand with which to see a cheap multi-way flop. After that I would take the same passive calling line as OP, only be in a cheaper, possibly multi-way pot and an opponent might still be in with a dominated flush draw as well.
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05-08-2013 , 09:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rbenuck4
Mistakes compound. Making a mistake early in the hand (even a debatable one) snowballs to causing very expensive problems later. The fact that you were willing to call this flop proves that preflop is a giant mistake as well.
you're right, the flop is a clear fold, i really don't think ak and a cbet is in his range given his age and tight image...
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05-08-2013 , 09:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by iluvsheesh
First time in MHSNL, I play 2/5 and usually post in LSNL so take my opinion for what its worth, but I am surprised that no one suggested just overlimping pre with KJs. This is a perfect hand with which to see a cheap multi-way flop. After that I would take the same passive calling line as OP, only be in a cheaper, possibly multi-way pot and an opponent might still be in with a dominated flush draw as well.
limping would have been ok but the idea was to isolate the other villian and take the pot down regardless of the flop... however, v2 messed up my plans by getting aces!
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05-09-2013 , 12:44 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Haru
Fold pre if you are posting this hand.
fold flop unless you have a plan for non K,J turns
ott, call and shove are close. I am definitely shoving against young kid but not sure about this villain.
If J are outs, how come K are not outs for u unless u put him on KK lol
if we're calling with KJs than we have to call flop. shouldn't call pre unless we are sure that villain is either a huge donk or has a super wide 3 bet range and flopping top pair is a good thing.

why would he shove turn? is villain ever folding better?
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05-10-2013 , 03:08 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by bamboo6386
if we're calling with KJs than we have to call flop. shouldn't call pre unless we are sure that villain is either a huge donk or has a super wide 3 bet range and flopping top pair is a good thing.

why would he shove turn? is villain ever folding better?
nah, I am not calling pre against this villain, and even if we call pre we should not call the flop without future plan.

Think about this, when he c-bet against 2 people on such a dry flop, he is basically repping QQ+ and what we can beat is a bluff repping this. I don't think this v2 is valuebetting worse mayyyybe TT and TT only. Your reasoning is tilted toward the value of hero's hand. If you call his cbet, are you just hoping that he is gonna shut down ott and otr? are you gonna keep calling his double barral or triple barrel? He could be bluffing, but given reads he has better hands than ours too often.

If I happened to call otf while thinking that v2 is betting with AA~QQ most of time, I need more than my equity for K,J turn. If we shoves turn on 2s, we are basically repping JJ,77,33 which is hard to rep, but our line is quite standard if we actually have one of this. Hero's image is also good to rep strong hands. We have enough equity if he fold decent % of time that could imply that shoving>calling.

That being said, I need to know that he is capable of making big folds. There are other cards that we can shove "as a bluff". Ts,9s,8s,7s(if 7 on the flop is not s) are the best cards to shove, T,8,7 are the next cards. As turn also if he checks As turn. Ax turn is also possible to think about. Those cards give us better chances to rep 2pairs, straight, trips so that he folds more often.

Anyway, thats what I will think about when I face 3bet vs this villian although I fold pre nearly 100%. He raised big enough that I can confidently fold even when v1 called. I rather have lower suited connecter, no gapper so that we get paid off more often when we flop trips,tps or monsters.

p.s. raising pre is totally fine.

Last edited by Haru; 05-10-2013 at 03:14 AM.
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05-12-2013 , 06:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rbenuck4
Mistakes compound. Making a mistake early in the hand (even a debatable one) snowballs to causing very expensive problems later. The fact that you were willing to call this flop proves that preflop is a giant mistake as well.
^This

In summary: fold pre. fold flop. As played, call turn + pray.
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