Villian - 30s pro ranges from nit to the aggressive end of tag. Rarely gets it in bad/pays off light but knows how to pot control/induce when he thinks he is ahead. He recently left bigger game and is just playing this until he can get into a bigger must move game. Villian recently won't a big pot when he flopped the nuts and a fish tried to bluff him. Stack ~3.5k.

Hero - Playing Lag like usual. I have played a lot with villian so we both know each others games very well. The only 2 times I have gotten it in with villian I was bluffing. Stack 2.8k.

Pre - I raise $40 utg with AKh and villian raises to $150 from mp. Folded to me and I just call.

Flop (315) - QJ10 2h. I lead 200 villian thinks for a bit and calls.

Turn (715) - 4h. I bet 500 and villian calls pretty quickly.

River (1715) - Q. I?

I flat pre because folding and raising both suck. If I 4-bet a normal size villian will 5-bet AA/KK and fold his air (not huge part but it is there). I am not really sure what he does with JJ and lower. If I click he will just flat a ton and outplay me. On the flop I don't think villian will lead AA/KK all the time and won't necessarily raise with sets. Turn I think is standard after lead. River is meh because I still have around 2k. If I stuff I think I look fos but villian doesn't hero a ton. I think villian is almost as likely to call an all in as he is to bet less than boats when checked to. I think a blocker bet is standard here but I think this may look super strong to villian.

2 questions: do you have a history with leading into villain in spots like these? and do you have AhKh or AxKh?

I like the way you played it, now c/f or b/f 300, whichever you think will make it less likely for him to turn stuff into a bluff.

I agree that turn is standard, but against an opponent with a lot of history (esp considering he's owned you previously) you don't have to play it standard. I think I would overbet 800 on the turn and jam nearly any river because you there are so few flushes in his range that you look FOS, and if he did get cute and 3b a 67hh type hand then he will stack off. He will most likely call with AK or a set, and may even jam those. You have a laggy image, so use it.

I don't lead often, but when I do I usually don't have a very good hand. That being said it is kinda hard for me to have air here. Villian also knows I am likely to c/r if I had a hand I liked and I also don't think AK is in my range but obv pretty much everything else is (I don't fold a lot to 3-bets).

Yes I am suited so I made flush (yay...).

Why bet 300 into 1.7k pot?

1500

I have about 2k behind, do you like 1.5k better because I kinda think this looks stronger.

You should have sized your bets so u can shove here for less than the pot. As played I'd bet 1500 or so and feel pretty good about it. I'm not too fond of your flop bet, I'd just c/r tbh, freerolling AK is worth so much here. I like lead with any other big hand though.

Why'd you bet an awkward amount on the turn? Your turn sizing leaves you with an awkward size to get stacks in. If you started turn with $2500 and the pot is $700, then putting in $600 on the turn leaves you a PSS on the river.

I personally bet $600-700 OTT to set up stacks on the river.

As played, I think it depends on how often you think villain will recognize a block and raise river as a bluff. I'd probably be bet/folding $1000 OTR.

Seems like a standard shove. B/f 1000 is not a good choice.

Hmmm, if you were a little deeper, a b/f would be the optimal line IMO. Here with the stack sizes the way they are, however, I think shoving is fine, and you'll be ahead more than %50 of the time V calls.

Agree with the others though, sizing on turn should've been larger considering our stack size and thinking about a river shove.

Is anyone open to the idea of ghey betting the river to induce? Say betting like $300 to snap off a shove?

Where I play I think a lot of people are becoming familiar with the bet/fold line, and seems like smallish river bets will induce some bluffs.

I suppose I could have set hand up for a river shove, but I was afraid breaking from my standard 2/3 pot sized bets would set off bells. On the river, I don't think I can ever induce villian he will only raise with what he thinks is the best hand which will be pretty much only boats.

For value.

Ok then yeah bet 300/fold. You're beat here a lot

you don't have much air because you led out two streets into a board that hits any 3bet range pretty well.

he has a lot of KK/AA/AQ which doesn't want to play for stacks. he also doesn't have much air. the only bluffing i'm worried about is if he turns KK into a bluff here. so i don't like inducing.

i think any bet you make looks somewhat weird because there isn't much you should be getting value from. so bet some amount that gets looked up by AQ half of the time and sometimes by AA/KK (because hey, you might have JT), and makes turning KK into a bluff look stupid.

so 1050/fold.

Could you have T9 here? That is like the only bluff I can think of that would raise utg and lead three streets. Seems pretty terrible to me to have any leading range here. C/c, c/c, c/r way way better.

I like c/ring flop with the flush freeroll.

I just bet a normal valuey size on the end, even if it is awkward, especially with your rep. I don't think I can b/f on the end with this stack size regardless.

I kind of like a chr OTF, feel like we can rep weaker sets/semi bluffs and get him to stack off much lighter than if we donk

river sucks, in reality this is just about the worst possible board run out for you

villain has JJ here or AA/KK. I'm betting like 525 here and hoping he can't fold AA.

If he ships I really don't see how we can call, I mean our hand looks like AK or JJ/TT and if he has AA/KK he has blockers to the straight.

b/f like 500 to get value from straights, sets and maybe AA/KK.

if he raises youre never ever ever good, don't care what kind of odds we're getting.

yeah this is like exactly my thinking

i agree with this.

Yeah I think betting small on river is best, although if I cr flop I am never getting stacks in with AA/KK. Against just about any other player I would c/r, but this guy is way too likely to check back flop.

I think the big thing is you are trying to rep some sort of weird draw and get him to ship it in with two pair or a set. Also I mean realistically your #1 goal is to get it in versus his most likely hand: AK.

Some people do stupid stuff when they flop the nuts, like flat a flop bet. If you put in a massive chr and ships all of a sudden you are free rolling for all the monies.