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/ NL: AQs 3-Bet Pot 00 Deep / NL: AQs 3-Bet Pot 00 Deep

08-15-2014 , 10:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ThaNEWPr0fess0r
This is much better than your first post, but you still didn't assign him a range... You just said that "we have 55% equity" which may be accurate, but It would definitely be hard for OP to learn anything from that.

Worst case scenario is that his range in this spot is like only sets and AA/KK. We definitely don't want to bet getting it in here with a flush draw against that range. Now... If he's c/ring 99-AA, sets, and combo draws OTF and folds 99-JJ when we jam but calls with the rest, then we may be okay.

The point I was trying to make was that even if we are 60/40 against flop c/r range I don't think this is a snap decision one way or the other. I mean, are we just snap getting it in here with AA-QQ? Seems like set mining against us would be highly profitable this deep.
If you make something seem more trivial than it is then you're automagically more enlightened and more superior and can instafeel better about yourself. Works better than Jerry Springer for a few MHFR posters.

I think we can largely rule out AA-QQ from his range. It would almost always 4-bet, especially this deep. AND we have blockers to AA and QQ.

As for the range he calls our jam with...

Generally... he CRed for 1/3 his stack deep in a 3-bet pot.. I don't think he's folding. Unless he's superaggro and was cold-stone bluffing. I don't even think he's semi-bluffing as I have the good hearts and I doubt he flatted my 3-bet with KhJh or 65s. His raising of my c-bets was NOT in 3-bet pots - there's less bluffing in 3-bet pots even for aggro guys. When we get called we're basically hoping he has 99-JJ (so we have overs) rather than a set.

Last edited by Olaff; 08-15-2014 at 10:39 PM.
08-15-2014 , 10:46 PM
I know this is unenlightened heresy but is calling an option?

Pot = 1200 To call = 440 Direct = 2.72 : 1
Implied + Pot = 1200 + (2000-660-150) = 2390 5.43 : 1 We need 4:1 OTT of course, so seems +EV.

Commitment considerations: we're 150+660 in then out of 2000 which is $810. Would be pretty bad to fold in terms of commitment..

Since he CRed in a 3-bet pot deep, he will likely stack off when flush comes in even though flush coming in is obvious. The problem of course is that we definitely expect him to fire turn which we'll likely brick and then have to fold as we no longer have any kind of odds to continue chasing our flush which makes this whole heretical idea unattractive.

Another interesting question is how many people would CR 99-JJ here as opposed to people who would only CR sets?
08-16-2014 , 12:19 PM
If I'm V and you keep folding to me, then I'm going to be CRing a lot more than just sets and over pairs.

As hero, I'm 3b! shoving this flop against this V almost always. He's been abusing you on flops. Unless you plan on just waiting for sets, you have to play back at him. Since you like to fold to this V, I'm a little worried he may have flatted us with a monster preflop to keep us on the line, but there are so many other hands that we have great equity against.

Flatting really only has merit IF V has a worse draw that he'd shove on turn but not call off with on the flop. I doubt that. Also, it makes stack sizes awkward and if a brick comes then we hate life when he bets.

So, it seems to be that folding and calling are both bad. Now, we have two overs and the NFD against a V who loves to CR our C-bets. I don't see how this is anything other than a shove.
08-17-2014 , 12:17 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DUCYdonk
He's been abusing you on flops.
From description: "Has raised my c-bets a couple of times." You jump to the conclusion of abuse while it's only a possibility. You seem prone to overadjusting. So if I raise your c-bet twice you will spazz? I'd love to play against you
08-17-2014 , 01:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Olaff
If you make something seem more trivial than it is then you're automagically more enlightened and more superior and can instafeel better about yourself. Works better than Jerry Springer for a few MHFR posters.

I think we can largely rule out AA-QQ from his range. It would almost always 4-bet, especially this deep. AND we have blockers to AA and QQ.

As for the range he calls our jam with...

Generally... he CRed for 1/3 his stack deep in a 3-bet pot.. I don't think he's folding. Unless he's superaggro and was cold-stone bluffing. I don't even think he's semi-bluffing as I have the good hearts and I doubt he flatted my 3-bet with KhJh or 65s. His raising of my c-bets was NOT in 3-bet pots - there's less bluffing in 3-bet pots even for aggro guys. When we get called we're basically hoping he has 99-JJ (so we have overs) rather than a set.
If I were Villain I not entirely sure that I would think a 4bet pre would be the most profitable line. I mean, you are 3betting a CO open from the BTN. Looks like a steal. I might flat and let you barrel off or whatever (possibly even c/r the flop).

I'm not sure about you guys, but do we really expect 99-JJ to c/r the flop? Might as well c/r with total air right? The sizing to me also seems suspicious if he is c/ring 99-JJ. Although this guy is in his 40s, and 40s guys definitely like to overplay their hands to "find out where they are at". Interesting spot, I'm definitely interested in hearing the outcome.
08-18-2014 , 12:10 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by ThaNEWPr0fess0r
I'm not sure about you guys, but do we really expect 99-JJ to c/r the flop? Might as well c/r with total air right? The sizing to me also seems suspicious if he is c/ring 99-JJ. Although this guy is in his 40s, and 40s guys definitely like to overplay their hands to "find out where they are at". Interesting spot, I'm definitely interested in hearing the outcome.
That's the problem with "duh, instashove!" line of thinking. If we really think about it he's overwhelmingly CRing for value here AND maybe 80-90% of that range is sets which crush us, not over pairs. And if it's sets we have no FE and we're simply getting it in crushed.

Which is why.. I ask this. What do you think about flatting the raise and simply shutting OTT if we don't bink our heart? We have implied odds to flat.
08-18-2014 , 01:36 AM
if you don't think you have any FE, you are deep enough to flat with implied odds. You need 4:1 odds to hit the flush but you are only getting 2.73:1 pot odds. So you'll need to win an extra $600 from V to make calling OTF EV neutral. You would be betting $600 into a $1,640 pot, giving V 3.7:1 pot odds. Obviously, having V call more than $600 becomes +EV. Please double check my math, it's late.
08-18-2014 , 02:20 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Olaff
Yes. Why not?
What happens when he 4bets? You turned your hand with excellent flopping equity into a bluff and you have to fold.
08-18-2014 , 02:26 AM
If you are unsure what to do here, I think you might be playing too high brother.
08-18-2014 , 02:34 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Olaff
That's the problem with "duh, instashove!" line of thinking. If we really think about it he's overwhelmingly CRing for value here AND maybe 80-90% of that range is sets which crush us, not over pairs. And if it's sets we have no FE and we're simply getting it in crushed.

Which is why.. I ask this. What do you think about flatting the raise and simply shutting OTT if we don't bink our heart? We have implied odds to flat.
Sets would be the absolute top of his range and we still have 32% equity (or so) against the flopped nuts. It's really hard to flop the nuts, and it's really hard to flop sets.

This guy has been bullying you all session. If you're not taking a stand now when are you? When you have the nuts? Would you fold Aces?
08-18-2014 , 10:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Olaff
"Some math or something".............. you're doing it wrong.

Jam Amount = 1630
Pot = 1200

Stand to win if called = 1630 + 1200 = 2830 and you should by multiply .45 by 2830.
The amount of dead money in the pot is 320+220+220=760. We haven't matched the additional $440 yet, so you can't include it, unless you also take it out of the jam amount. So, 760+1630=2390, or 1200+1190=2390.

And I did this **** while high

Quote:
Originally Posted by ThaNEWPr0fess0r
This is much better than your first post, but you still didn't assign him a range... You just said that "we have 55% equity" which may be accurate, but It would definitely be hard for OP to learn anything from that.
Maybe OP can put in some work himself and play around with a couple of ranges, instead of asking this forum to do all his thinking for him.
Quote:
Worst case scenario is that his range in this spot is like only sets and AA/KK. We definitely don't want to bet getting it in here with a flush draw against that range. Now... If he's c/ring 99-AA, sets, and combo draws OTF and folds 99-JJ when we jam but calls with the rest, then we may be okay.

The point I was trying to make was that even if we are 60/40 against flop c/r range I don't think this is a snap decision one way or the other. I mean, are we just snap getting it in here with AA-QQ? Seems like set mining against us would be highly profitable this deep.
Sure that is worse case, against OMC, not some 40 year old semipro TAG who has already raise our flop cbet a couple times and is doing it now in a good spot.

Set mining isn't profitable against our AA-QQ, because of the times we bet/fold our air, or hit a flush by the river, or set over set villain.
08-18-2014 , 11:17 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Olaff
"Some math or something".............. you're doing it wrong.

Jam Amount = 1630
Pot = 1200

Stand to win if called = 1630 + 1200 = 2830 and you should by multiply .45 by 2830.
08-18-2014 , 04:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by UCDLaCrosse
What happens when he 4bets? You turned your hand with excellent flopping equity into a bluff and you have to fold.
If he 4-bets then we fold or flat. 100BB deep I'd fold, 200BB I might flat.

But what you said is faulty logic, by that token we should never 3-bet JJ or TT because we have to fold a good hand if we get 4-bet. You never 3-bet AQ? Makes me wonder what do you 3-bet?
08-18-2014 , 05:47 PM
We seem to have drifted off the OP into the sidelines and personal comments.

I'm going to lock this.
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