Villain is a good TAG regular in the game, one of the best players currently at the table given that some of the other good regs moved up to 10/25 which is running now but only goes occasionally. No history between me and Villain. I have been playing TAG, and since I play 2/5 and 5/10, Villain likely perceives me (probably correctly) to be a weaker player than him.

Effective stacks ~ $2k.

Villain limps UTG. UTG+1 limps. I overlimp OTB with A7. SB completes, BB calls.

Flop ($50): J82

Checks to Villain. He leads for $40. Folds to Hero, who makes it $120. Folds to Villain, who calls.

At this point I am heavily discounting 2pr+ as he should be 3-betting me here with those hands. I am putting villain on a 1-pair hand, or a hand like Tc9c that decided not to 3-bet. There is some possibility that he decided that he has a decent post-flop edge on me and chose to float OOP, but I don't have a strong basis for this.

Turn ($290): J82A

Villain checks, Hero ?

I was kind of planning on barrelling blank turns to put pressure on the 1-pair part of his range. But now I have showdown value against part of his flop calling range. However, if I check back I can't represent much on the river, and will be forced to either bluff-catch or sometimes fold the best hand.

Thoughts on the plan for turn/river?

200, call/evaluate river if he raises

You can't really do a mistake on this turn as both checking and betting are fine in your position. I like betting a bit more for thinnish value. Also this deep you might get good implied odds if he raises while the villain might be willing to chase a worse flush more.

If you check and the river is a club, villain will lead and you will raise. Your hand will pretty much look like it is. Also you might have to bluff-catch against a range that leads the river after a turn check which might be as strong as the calling range on this turn so yeah, bet. Check the blanks behind obv.

IMO if you check back the river bricks and he has no showdown value I don't see him taking a stab very often since people are more likely to give up in limped pots. Betting the turn is moreso to induce a possible check-raise from his bluff range than for value against a jack since there likely isn't a ton of Jx in his range. Plus like Imaginary F(r)iend said betting is never bad since you get to build your own implied odds this deep.

Sizing-wise I might even pull the ol' 'Same bet' and put another 120 out there, if he thinks we're a weaker player he could easily read that as a bare jack that's scared of the ace but doesn't want to check and make him way more likely to spazz.

If you check back, and the river bricks, You can call any non J river, and a Q or 7 is less than ideal but you will still call. You're liable to get a bet out of a J if you bet big or catch a T9/smaller FD bluff. If river clubs, he might try to steal with T9 and will bet out with smaller flush, you will raise and he will call, unless he goes for C/R which would cost him his stack...

If you bet the turn, he will probly fold his 8 or J and T9. Yet the bonus for this is, if you bet 150-200, def 200 Max tho, he will chase his combo FD further and then probly get stacked when club hits. It all comes down to how often you think he will check raise and that boils down to how often is he superslowplaying a set, J8?! or has AJ/A8 here. Getting check raised here is really awful, it won't force you to fold, but you get a 600$ river card instead of a free one vs. a monster hand... If you feel that he will C/R less than 20% of the time, betting and checking down river w/o a club, maybe B/F the A on the river (chk down the 7) should be good.

The turn is a bet,

Problem with checking the turn, is your hand looks like a flush draw imo, and you won't get paid on a club river.

Also, he can still call with a J or smaller flush/combo draw, so you are still getting some value, while keeping your hand disguised.

Also, I think you very, very rarely get raised on this turn, because anything that can raise now, should have 3-bet on the flop except exactly AJ.

I checked behind, thinking that:

a) I have no need to protect
b) I have showdown value against Jx
c) I don't want to get c/r-ed by AJ
d) I might induce on a blank river

River was a blank. Villain thinks for a little and bets $145. I snap-called since I had already mentally decided to call most bets on the river unimproved given that I under-repped my hand on the turn. He showed KK. I guess he thought I had a Jx and was trying to go for thinnish value. Still not sure if I played the turn right, thanks for your feedback. I was planning on betting the river myself for 1/2 pot if he checked, as at that point his hand looks like a Jx that I can get some value from.

bet turn. do you think villain put draws in your flop raising range there? if so, i would think that he expects you to barrel that Ax a fair bit.

i dont know what villains utg limp range is or what he usually leads with in that spot. i would guess that his flop bet/call range consist mainly of Js or draws and against both those categories a turn bet is good.

there are some merits for checking i guess. but the fear of being checkraised by AJ shouldnt be one of them. there are not many combos left of AJ and even when he shows up with them i really doubt that we would ever checkraise since the A really doesnt change his hand strength vs your range + you are deep as well. the merits would be potcontrol and still getting one bet in the river whether its by him bluffing a missed draw or him calling a vbet w a J since you line looks weird.

I guess checking with the intention of calling or betting river if checked to is ok. If the club misses, we still get 1 more bet in either way (whether we bet turn or not). Going for value on both turn and river is too thin without improving.

I just like bloating the pot when I'm drawing to the nuts, but that's a personal preference .

bottom line is you gain very little info/value by checking...betting gives you value from worse, more info on his hand, and many more options on the river