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5/10 Live - Overpair facing overbet on turn 5/10 Live - Overpair facing overbet on turn

05-31-2011 , 12:57 AM
The villain hasn't been at the table too long (maybe 1 orbit), he bought in for $1000, the table max is $1500. He seemed to recognize and start chatting with another player who I felt was a regular, so I'm under the assumption that this guy is also regular. I play 2/5 and was just taking a shot (but they don't know that), I had about $1550 at the start of the hand.

Villain - UTG+2 ($900)
Hero - SB ($1550)

Hero is dealt JJ

Pre-flop ($15)

2 folds, Villain raises to $60, 4 folds, Hero calls $60, BB folds
Note: Standard open raises seem to range anywhere from $40-$80 at this table

Flop ($130) 568

Hero checks, Villain bets $90, Hero calls $90

Turn ($310) 568T

Hero checks, Villain bets $400, Hero ??? (Villain has about $350 behind)

My hand is likely under-repped at this point, but I feel his range could easily have a lot of sets/bigger pairs. I'm feeling with him being committed with that bet, the best play is probably a fold. Any thoughts?
5/10 Live - Overpair facing overbet on turn Quote
05-31-2011 , 01:00 AM
I fold. It's so likely he's probably taking that ridiculous sizing with his stack cause he has a very strong but vulnerable hand and he doesn't want you to draw out on him. You beat Tx or some sort of hand that has a lot of equity against you but without reads on the guy you can't put a lot of the pair + draw stuff into his raise to $60 in EP range
5/10 Live - Overpair facing overbet on turn Quote
05-31-2011 , 06:14 AM
Read dependent.
5/10 Live - Overpair facing overbet on turn Quote
05-31-2011 , 12:52 PM
How old and what race is the villain?

Note: I am completely serious.
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05-31-2011 , 01:04 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jasons0147
How old and what race is the villain?

Note: I am completely serious.
He is a white male, mid 20s. FWIW im also a white male, 24 yrs old. I tend to go with the read that young guys playing this high are often online players/pros.
5/10 Live - Overpair facing overbet on turn Quote
05-31-2011 , 01:14 PM
100bb deep I just ship the turn expecting to see Tx/Two overs type hands quite often from a player like you described with his bet sizing. Change the person to an old man or a woman and I fold pretty quick.

Also assuming that someone is an online player or a pro because they are young/wear headphones/play often is a horrible idea imo.

Hand becomes interesting (but obv plays much different) 200bb+ deep. I also am pretty happy 3betting here with these stacks.
5/10 Live - Overpair facing overbet on turn Quote
05-31-2011 , 01:39 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jasons0147
100bb deep I just ship the turn expecting to see Tx/Two overs type hands quite often from a player like you described with his bet sizing. Change the person to an old man or a woman and I fold pretty quick.

Also assuming that someone is an online player or a pro because they are young/wear headphones/play often is a horrible idea imo.

Hand becomes interesting (but obv plays much different) 200bb+ deep. I also am pretty happy 3betting here with these stacks.
Are you just getting it in over a 4bet? I agree because we are OOP, but disagree because I feel like we are essentially turning our hand into a bluff.

Maybe not a pro player, but I tend to assume that guys at this level are going to be somewhat good until they show me otherwise. Of course after a few showdowns/orbits, I'll have a much better grasp of someone's particular game. That really goes for most ages though. For younger players I expect to see some lighter 3-betting/bluff raising going on a decent amount of the time.
5/10 Live - Overpair facing overbet on turn Quote
05-31-2011 , 04:38 PM
I think at this level you assume they are somewhat bad until they show you otherwise. he could have AT or some combo draw. Just chk raise all in. It is just 90bb effective to start.
5/10 Live - Overpair facing overbet on turn Quote
06-01-2011 , 06:59 PM
6x open seems pretty nitty and non-online playerish.
5/10 Live - Overpair facing overbet on turn Quote
06-01-2011 , 07:32 PM
Agreed that:
*3-8xbb open raises are standard at $5-10 games that allow for 150-200+ buy-ins, AFAIK.
*profiling race/age/gender help, but certainly not set in stone! Though, there isn't much else to go on at this point.
*don't assume that young guys are good. Most of them probably just still live at home and have enough money to afford to gamble. Also, I believe a lot of them have enough testosterone and ego for it, as well.
*best to assume that they are losers till much information to the contrary.

As for what to do facing turn bet?

It seems pretty clear that he wants you to fold, and if he's not committed, then he certainly appears to be. Whether he's semi-bluffing or bluffing, I highly doubt it. He has other options with a semi-bluff in that he could take a card since he's in position. In either case, he has just as little information to go on as you do, so it's kind of suicidal to just blindly barrel here.

Yes, your hand is under-repped, but I think that's somewhat irrelevant only because I don't see a reason for this guy to just punt here, and for the most part, all you have, relatively, is a bluff catcher. Would you ch/r all-in on the turn with Ace high here? In this hand, with the information you have, I think that's all you have, unfortunately.

Honestly, I'd just fold. Things could be much different as your reads progress, but this is all you have to go on ATM.
5/10 Live - Overpair facing overbet on turn Quote
06-01-2011 , 07:48 PM
I don't really like 3b'ing and just getting it in as a default because that's not so standard live. However, I don't mind making an exception in this spot only because you have little to no information. I think this is one place where it's OK to have to pay for it.

Normally, I wouldn't want to have to 3b out of the blind with many big hands facing a lone EP raise. I'd rather keep my hand disguised, trap, and not offer him implied odds.

At the same time, I hardly see anyone, even for 100bbs, stacking off with AK, JJ, etc. Most regs tend to be pretty tight and straight-forward, and I have hardly noticed many willing to bluff off a stack with little to no equity.

If you're uncomfortable having to fold on flops/turns like this, then maybe you're better off 3b'ing? In that case, I'm not likely going to consider folding if he wants to get it in pre or on the flop, especially given that he's got 90bbs to start and opened to 6bbs.

I really don't know which is better, flatting and having to fold often, even with an overpair on a board like this, or 3b'ing, getting it in and finding out that his range is like always QQ-AA only. I don't know how often we will get a good flop vs a bad flop. But it seems that flatting and playing OOP vs simple aggression can be extremely difficult, at least with these stack sizes and no information.

Hmmm, thoughts?
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