Quote:
Originally Posted by discgolfing
Well, my first argument against betting would be the fact that there are so many other players in the hand. Having an overpair 5 ways on a super wet board with no real backdoor equity is imo not a spot where we're thrilled to start piling chips into the pot. Checking controls the pot size and disguises the strength of our hand.
My main argument, though, is the psycho to act behind me. If we bet and she calls (which should happen relatively often), this can induce more calls which will set up a lot of really awkward turn decisions for us. Whereas if we check and induce a bet from the psycho (which should also happen relatively often), we can shove over her most of the time and feel great about it.
I did decide to check.
V1 bets $210
V2 calls $210
V3 folds.
V4 folds.
Hero ???
I know I just said that my plan most of the time was to shove over her, but obviously I can't just shove over V2 given how deep we both are. How should we proceed from here?
I don't like c/jam with JJ here, because if as you said you induce a bet from psycho, there's too much left to shove over the top if it's HU, and if it is multiway and you shove, she's calling often and others with their draws are well justified to call as well. There is a huge equity difference in such a pot holding AAh, KKh, or JJh because JJh 1) often can't backdoor a 4card flush and win; and 2) don't block someone bricking their draws but hitting a higher pair.
I also don't like a jam given precisely what happened, ie the bad player doesn't put money in, other more reasonable players do, but since you didn't bet you have no idea how strong their hands are...
Lastly, I think you should strive to almost always focus more on the players acting last in pots like this(whether they are good or bad), than the bad player that might sit to your direct left in this case but doesn't close the action. Usually the bad player here won't put you in a difficult spot because they are not able to put everyone on correct ranges and act in correct analysis of ALL remaining in the hand. Depending on their tendencies the bad player is more likely in a multiway pot to actually act predictably and telegraph their likely holdings, even if they are "unpredictable" in the way they play. It's the good player that has position, closes the action, that is able to handread, that could take advantage in a multiway raised pot drawy flop like this that could make it super difficult for you with what is a medium-strength hand. As well as choosing to protect my hand/valuebet/define their range/whatever, you should be focused on how your action is perceived by the stronger players in the hand with good position who can either be induced into a mistake, or play more straightforward and define their hand to you, or prevented from stealing the pot, etc etc.
I don't know if all that helps, I'm tired and rambling a bit.. ;-)