Overall the game is playing with a typical "live" dynamic (i.e., too loose passive preflop, big bets on the river are rarely bluffs, etc.)

I am stuck a little but nothing significant. Villain is a young Russian internet player, but for whatever reason, he is playing loose passive preflop per the overall game dynamic. He can read hands reasonably well and is capable of bluffing. He is stuck quite a bit, and definitely not playing his A game. In general, he is playing too many hands preflop, and playing them too passively.

I am playing a little tigher than most preflop. Normal aggression post flop. I caught Villain bluffing in a smallish pot about 45 minutes ago.

Villain has $1500. I cover. Game is seven handed.

Preflop

Villain limps under the gun. One MP caller. I raise to 75 with AT.

Villain calls. MP folds.

Flop ($160)

998

Villain checks. I bet $125. Villain CR to $325. I call.

Turn ($810)

T

Villain checks. I check.

River ($810)

7

Villain bets $525.

I think that every street except preflop is debateable. I called the flop CR because I have been seeing a lot weak flop CRs in live games lately. I expected to bet most turn cards, but decided to check behind once I improved because I thought that repping a missed diamond draw was the only way to get another bet out of Villain if he was behind. I planned to snap most rivers, but the 7 turned the river into a close decision in my mind because Villain definitely had some Js in his range.

I think i check back flop although that may be a little results oriented, and i just fold to the CR.

i would raise smaller pre, like 60ish. i would take same line (like the thought process). sucky river, seems like JT, but i prob hero call because villain is possibly tilting.

I was thinking kinda the same, except I bet turn and check river. Board is so drawy why not get value on turn, especially since 10j is possible. If ace comes on turn I don't mind the check.

I would check flop and probably bet or raise a turn bet by villain. We have some SD value on turn and this line seems credible to an overpair or a 9.

As played I would have folded to the flop CR.

Dirty river card....god I hate it when that happens.

Checking the flop would not credibly rep a 9 or overpair from me. I would bet overpairs and 9s on the flop here better than 90% of the time.

You have more Jacks in your range than he does.

fold flop

I think that this is a fair point. I certainly didn't expect him to show up with JJ here, whereas I certainly could have.

Are you suggesting that this makes the river a fold if I believe that Villain has his head on straight?

why? you really want to blow up this pot with an overpair? by checking back on the flop you: pot control, induce, get value from small pairs later, etc. i would for sure bet/call with 9x, or AX.

your AT high on the flop is likely the best hand, but can you stand a c/r? (i guess you can since you did bet/call......). you have position and get to decide how big you want the pot to be. why are we inflating with A high?

on the river, what two cards can he have after his flop c/r that don't connect with this turn/river? i think after catching the villian bluffing within the past hour, you should give him credit here and fold. ie, he's less likely to bluff you since you caught him recently.

i don't think he's turning KT / QT into a bluff on the river. the hands that he could be bluffing the river with are stuff like: 45, 34, A4. not enough combos for you to call profitably here.

Chili,

It is very possible that I misplayed this hand, but I really disagree with most of what you wrote.

Most of the points you are making would counsel in favor of never making a continuation bet with any hand when you miss the flop, which I'm sure is not how you play.

I am not simply inflating for the sake of inflating. As you pointed out, I am likely ahead on the flop on a drawy board against a Villain who has been playing a lot of hands post flop. If we were deeper, pot control might take precedence over charging draws, but we really aren't that deep.

Also, if I check behind on the flop, Villain is likely to assume that Ax is a big part of my range, and that may cause him to get sticky with hands like 77, 66, etc. (this was one of the reasons you advocated checking behind on the flop with an overpair -- note that it cuts against me when I don't have a pair).

It's easy to be results oriented after knowing that I was CR'ed, but as a matter of fact, a CR was not at all likely here. Frankly, I can't think of a single hand other than 9x that Villain would CR for value here. [FWIW, I would like his play if he CR'ed with 9x here.] With these stack sizes, I thought a CR with random diamonds also was very unlikely. A CR from Villain here is either (a) 9x, (b) air, (c) a combo draw that is content to get it, or (d) an attempt to freeze me up on the turn so he can get to showdown with a hand like 66, 77, 67 or 78.

I really disagree with you as to Villain's bluffing range range on the river. If he showed up with a diamond draw, it was going to be JT or 67, nothing else. I don't think that he would have risked getting 3-bet on the flop with a random diamond draw.

Maybe you believe that the river is an even clearer foldf if I take hands like A4 out of the equation.

Yeah, basically this river isn't a green light for villain to just fire with air since it's pretty unlikely he would expect you to fold QQ-AA and certainly not JJ, JT. Your turn check was a pretty clear indicator that you had showdown value. Also I would expect villain to fire turn again with AJ/KJ and not to limp/call with Jx pre. Ime when people c/r flop and then give up, they are done for the entire hand. So he either filled up on the turn or binked the river. All this is contingent on him not being tilted out of his mind and realizing that he is repping pretty thin with a really weird line. If you think he's just super spazz and fps then shrug call but in the long run it should be a bad call.

Your flop call does not equate with what you think villain's range is. Especially if you believe he thinks you will 'freeze up' on the turn with an overpair(ie less fe against a pair). He would have to have air a ton and always give up on the turn. If he continues just a small % with his air, always with a combo draw and 9x or better and sometimes c/c with his pairs your flop play is not good.

rococo-
certainly i c-bet with air plenty, but when cr'ed on this flop with no pair / no draw, i'm gonna give up. but a lot of times when i'm c-betting this flop heads up i can't beat Ace high and am fine to bet/fold (or i have 9x or 8s full). i'm not saying i never bet QQ in this spot cuz i do, but i do check it back sometimes too.

we know that ace high is often the best hand here on a paired board in a heads up pot, but i'm not comfortable playing a big pot by bet/calling the flop with ace high in a single raised pot barring some extreme meta that was not posted in the op.

so i guess my answer is akin to something limon has said: it's tough to give an answer about the river play when i wouldn't have put myself in that spot on the flop.

cbet flop is fine- but def fold to raise, fold river

This seems like another hand where op had a read and went with it (when he called the flop c/r). This is completely fine IMO and a legit part of live poker. Having said that, these hands usually make for poor threads because people can't get past the part of the hand (the flop call here) that would be horrendous without a read...

Pre seems a little big in a vacuum, but w/e, there are def table dynamics that can make it right IMO.

To c-bet flop or not is very image, history, meta dependent. If you are a pot controller in general and c-bet here, anyone decent will punish you. If you are not a pot controller and/or have a wide pfr range, the c-bet is good and not exploitable IMO.

I would bet turn small (repping a beast). The board is too wet to give a free card and he's not going to bluff a river brick often enough to make it worthwhile.

River is not a good hero spot IMO (unless you have another read).

I guess the flop was read dependent because most of the time I would not call a CR in that spot.

Maybe you are right about the turn. I certainly thought that his range included a fair number of hands with a J or a 7.

River I still believe is close. I pretty much have signaled to Villain that I have a one pair hand here a lot, which makes it an enticing bluffing spot for him.

Def agree... However, you have also kind of signaled to him that you think he is fos and you aren't folding (by calling the flop c/r). Also, the obv draw on the flop (the fd) missed, so it's not like you "can't beat anything."

I agree it's close, I just lean towards folding (without a read) based on what he should be thinking.