villain has lost some big pots in a leveling war i did not understand. he is acting maniacally, and complains of people beating him to be donks, but i think there is some chance he is just acting. at the time i thought the "just acting" chance was ~25%. his play is on the stationy side.

hero is a relatively new weekend warrior at the game. he splashes a ton in small pots, and progressively less in larger pots, but will still felt without the nuts. has been seen over last ~3 hours as either bluffing too much or on an absurd run of cards; hasn't shown down after aggression. about two hours ago was seen calling down a river overbet by someone repping a flush with a medium pair.

villain is at 2.5k, hero covers.

4 limpers to hero on bb. hero raises to 70 with AA, villain calls, others fold. (perceived range here is 20% if villain is in fact clueless, and 5% if he is just acting.)

flop is 1073. pot is 200. hero bets 150, villain calls.

turn is 6. pot is 500. hero bets 350, villain calls.

river is 8. pot is 1200. hero bets 600, villain ships for 1.2k more, hero folds.

check/fold river

everything got there. what are you hoping to get called by there? AT? Don't think villain is thinking that you're triple barreling AK.

agree on check folding river

I think it's well played on all streets. Has he noticed you bet/folding any recent hands? I also don't hate check/folding.

River bluff is terrible, rest of the hand is good.

Played fine.

Edit: wait, river bet wasn't for value?

river is definitely for value.

after doing some math i'm ok with any line on river (b/f, c/c, c/f). i thought villain is betting almost his entire range (single pairs and air for bluff, rest for value), but for a large bet which we cannot call (we are good probably less than 40% here). he can definitely call with single pairs given dynamics, though will fold many times also.

suppose we are good on river 35% of time, of which a quarter will pay our river bet.

so .35*1200+.35*.25*600-0.65*600 > 0 for bet fold. but if we are good 30% it's much more c/f.

c/f - doubt hes calling wide enough to justify the times your bluffing.

River bet is spewy, I think it's fine if its the 5s or 4s but the 8 just improves far too many of his hands and makes him fold too many worse hands. In fact vbetting the river is probably worse than check-calling since he might check back a lot of 2 pairs but never fold them to a river bet, not to mention he'll probably turn a lot of pairs smaller than a T into a bluff when checked to but either shove or fold those to a river bet.

Its def a fold. I'd c/f river... gross.