fwiw I like villains play a lot against thinking aggro regs. however if he didn't know you I think it's best to bet-small/call-a-raise as it's probably gets more value/could still induce.

if he's really a decent reg I doubt he's folding any flushes on the river after checking. even to 2x. 2x pot would probably fold out sets and straights, but I think he's still calling flushes.

at least he should be.

As played, I like V's river check.

Not to be results oriented, but I wanted to comment on your turn line. Any reason why you aren't raising here? It's such a wet board and there are a lot of bad rivers for you. Is your intention to flat his river barrel if a blank hits? I feel like you could have used being in position better throughout the hand.

Betting for value seems insane. What are you hoping to get called by?

I like bet/folding small as merge if villain isn't foldy OTR. And overbetting pot as a bluff if he is (written before seeing results).

Villain's x/c range that hero beats:
99-JJ: 12 combos
86, 85, Q8: 19 combos
Possibly 89, 87, A8: 36 combos (need to significantly discounted)

Villain's x/c range that hero loses to:
88, 66: 6 combos
79: 16 combos (somewhat discounted)
7xhh and 9xhh where x != A: 13 combos w 79hh repeated (also somewhat discounted)

Betting small (1/4-1/3 of pot) increases villain's likelihood of calling w his 8x combos.

A big river bet usually folds out any non-flush holding (and also probably the few 7high and 9high flushes in villain's range) since hero's hand looks so much like a flush draw.

River seems a clear check, but you missed such massive value by not raising or backraising the flop. Backraising there would look so incredibly full of **** i wouldn't be surprised if he 4bets 87 or calls with any pair.

really really disagree with this, but you can read the rest of the thread if you want to know why. this deep with a good image people just don't spaz like that.

check back. he has more hands in his ch/c or ch/r range that beat 55 than don't, and I don't think you're getting the hands that beat you to fold.

If you wanna bluff gotta overbet. Might be cool for your range since he basically never has the nuts and you do.

although this hand has been discussed to death, something popped into my head and i played around in pokerstove,

q: does having the 5 increase or decrease our equity vs likely holdings?

lmk if you guys were surprised too by the result

Theoretically you need call stats on this guy to throw in with a stove to weight out ur value on river. In game I'd prob be going like 90% feel in this close of a situation.

+1

sick bump

Betting this river makes no sense. You get called by a super narrow range of hands that you beat, and some of those hands fold anyway. If you're betting, the only logical (though not valid) reason is as a bluff.

read the thread.....it was a bluff. also, sick bump lol

Wasn't my bump but after I responded I did read the thread and saw it was a bet turned into a bluff. Just a big money burn imo. Check back and cut losses when you're beat and realize you weren't getting paid by anything you have beat if you win at showdown.

I think it's a good bluff. You get a ton of folds from better. Just happened to run into the combo FD part of his range that decided river was too thin to value bet.

Havent read results but if hero bets river its as a bluff right? like expecting him fold 88/66/Straights as you rep XhXh?

I like checking back or bluffing personally. Bluffing has to be huge though, like 2k or more and I am a big nit in game so I check haha