Yes this is a very gambly spot, but flatting the 1k is going to be profitable in several scenarios where 5b can only be profitable when everyone folds. I agree with 3 betting so big being the crux of this hand.

ehhh, I see rec players cold call really absurd stuff in utg1s spot at these stack depths and he's the only one we have to be remotely concerned about. I agree that 2.7k is a pretty massive mistake but min5b has a lot of merit and I am never ever folding here given the price we are getting. Absolutely agree that 3b sizing is too big. I like 160ish personally.

Yes. When someone with 100 bbs makes it 6 bbs and you make it 25 bbs, you are basically telling him, "Hey man, just so you know, I am never folding this hand if you wanna go all in at any point." This strengthens your opponent's range considerably moving forward (should he 4b shove or just take a flop and re-evaluate). He won't really bluff the rest of the hand and he won't really bluff-catch too light either--> you've just sucked almost all the value out of your JJ by playing it at the bottom of your range as opposed to somewhere above the middle (assuming you 3b/iso in position a reasonably wide/balanced range in general when stacks are deep enough/sizing is small enough that it doesn't commit you).

And then ofc you need to always be thinking about the 500 bb stack behind you...

A+ thread. I'm with dgaf. Very good analysis!

OP why you bite the Ice Man's name tho?

rarely do i say this but this a very good post.

Dgaf posts are always good, but I think this is the first time I strongly disagree with him. For a hand that ended up being against bad players we need to keep our thinking a bit simpler. Sb doesn't need to jam with only prems with this much dead money, and rec players aren't usually thinking about ranges or anything other then superficial details like hand strength and a poor understanding of pot odds and if you would bluff here. If we flat the 1k and only utg+1 calls is he really going to outplay us? I'm not saying its an easy spot, and folding to the 1k might be better then making it 2.7k but I think giving bad players credit for deep thinking, especially in a pf spot is a significant leak. I've talked a ton of poker with a lot of the reg fish/whales and their hand analysis was rarely deeper then "my hand was to strong to fold" or "I thought he was bluffing" and "if I hit my card id win a big pot". Your advantage over these players is that you know what they are thinking, and they don't even consider this or even think of what you are thinking. That being said, playing 500bb deep makes this hand super awkward, I think even at 300bb I just rip it pre and win the hand about half the time with a lot of dead money.

question op. just to clarify, utg is a fishy armenian w/500bb and utg+1 is a fishy businessman also w/500 bb? do the tag pros' stacks cover also?

At some point in the Op it says there are two fish in the hand. I was confused too, but pretty sure it's sb fish, bb op, utg (or utg+1) fish, pro, pro.

TB- what range are you giving sb? It's the second hand dealt to him, 3 dudes just limped, he popped it to 60 (from the sb mind you), bb made it huge, everyone called, and now he stuffs his 100bb stack...



If we flat the 1k and utg+1 flats, no way the pros behind fold imo...

And no, I don't think utg+1 is going to outplay us in a traditional sense- but he might accidentally do it by 5b AK pre and getting us to fold, or by 5b QQ or KK (or a super sneaky AA) and getting us to call. He can also accidentally outplay us by just flatting a bigger pp pair pre and winning the post flop dough on brick boards by simply not folding/maybe just betting when checked to him...

The only marginally profitable way to continue after sb shoves imo is to flat and basically set mine/fold, and that takes extreme discipline with a starting hand as strong as JJ (and there are some fundamental problems with doing that imo). And then when you consider the possibility of UTG+1 re-raising, and the horrible and confusing spot we are put in when that happens and we are at the top of our now capped range, that sways a flat to -ev/the 2nd best option. Imo.

You don't flat AA here?

This illustrates a pretty serious thinking flaw. This board is really good for us because AK missed and the number of QQ combos is reduced. Unfortunately most Armo's will fold AKo pre so your equity is still not good but this board is better than almost any non-set one.

Fwiw I think pre is marginal between all three options, math works out to needing the fish to have a limp/call $250 range of wider than 25% or so for 5bet to be better than folding and call is probably slightly better than either at that breakeven point. Unfortunately I don't usually get to play in games where fish limp/call 25bb pre with 25% of hands but I know they exist.

wait what!?

Just flat the $60.

Sb range is kind of irrelevant as long as description is good and his range is going to be more then top 10 hands. I'm sure with so much money in the pot he is ripping much wider then ak/1010. As for the rest of the time, sometimes everyone else folds which is best case, and sometimes we get other calls. Utg+1 and pros call then we are prob just set mining, although I think we can still be good on some boards since pros shouldn't have better hands in their range. We don't have pro stack sizes, but I can't really see how that should matter given how much money will be in the pot it really shouldn't sway our decision at this juncture. Honestly utg1 really confused me with this hand he doesn't seem too aggro pre if he just flats kk pre (or maybe he's a little better then we give him credit for.

Fwiw assuming pros are 5k deep how much worse is this for us vs just getting utg+1? Also at what depth should each pro call/fold 1k pre? Its not like they are getting immediate odds to set mine, and what if last pro has like A4s and decides he can profitably ship? This isn't a snap 750 in pre spot IMO.