Quote:
Originally Posted by TimeBomb
Dgaf posts are always good, but I think this is the first time I strongly disagree with him. For a hand that ended up being against bad players we need to keep our thinking a bit simpler. Sb doesn't need to jam with only prems with this much dead money, and rec players aren't usually thinking about ranges or anything other then superficial details like hand strength and a poor understanding of pot odds and if you would bluff here. If we flat the 1k and only utg+1 calls is he really going to outplay us? I'm not saying its an easy spot, and folding to the 1k might be better then making it 2.7k but I think giving bad players credit for deep thinking, especially in a pf spot is a significant leak. I've talked a ton of poker with a lot of the reg fish/whales and their hand analysis was rarely deeper then "my hand was to strong to fold" or "I thought he was bluffing" and "if I hit my card id win a big pot". Your advantage over these players is that you know what they are thinking, and they don't even consider this or even think of what you are thinking. That being said, playing 500bb deep makes this hand super awkward, I think even at 300bb I just rip it pre and win the hand about half the time with a lot of dead money.
TB- what range are you giving sb? It's the second hand dealt to him, 3 dudes just limped, he popped it to 60 (from the sb mind you), bb made it huge, everyone called, and now he stuffs his 100bb stack...
If we flat the 1k and utg+1 flats, no way the pros behind fold imo...
And no, I don't think utg+1 is going to outplay us in a traditional sense- but he might accidentally do it by 5b AK pre and getting us to fold, or by 5b QQ or KK (or a super sneaky AA) and getting us to call. He can also accidentally outplay us by just flatting a bigger pp pair pre and winning the post flop dough on brick boards by simply not folding/maybe just betting when checked to him...
The only marginally profitable way to continue after sb shoves imo is to flat and basically set mine/fold, and that takes extreme discipline with a starting hand as strong as JJ (and there are some fundamental problems with doing that imo). And then when you consider the possibility of UTG+1 re-raising, and the horrible and confusing spot we are put in when that happens and we are at the top of our now capped range, that sways a flat to -ev/the 2nd best option. Imo.