5/10 1.8e
Hero HJ QQch open 25
CO pro 75
Hero call. (Rolled 50/50 call/4bet)

165)
965scd
X
60
C

285)
T965scdd
X
300
C

885)
T9654scddh
X
450
Hero?

Feels like a mando defend, also feels like villain has a lot of thin value for this size and not enough bluffs.

What’s the play?

50% 4bet is too much pre with QQwhen you are almost 200bb deep. It is more like 20-25%.

Your hand is a bluff catcher on both the turn and river. It is up to you to range villain and to know what he will tripple barrel. He could have barreled diamonds. Also QJ, KQ, KJ, all pick up straight draws on the turn.

If you can determine whether villain is over or under bluffing here, you can go with either a call or fold. Otherwise, it is like a 50% call 50% fold on the river.

You need to slowplay some sets/two pair/straights to strengthen your calling /raising range on the river.

Villains turn pot size is really interesting. It is almost as if he is saying he has 2 pair plus (or nothing). I don't think this sizing should be a thing for him when you have a lot of nutted hands in range. I would definitely use this showdown to gain information about villain. If he is potting turn with AA/KK I wonder if he is bluffing enough. But if he plays all gutters and open enders like this then he is probably bluffing too much.

If we are folding QQ here getting 3-1, I think we are over-folding.

Agree with Mlark that turn sizing is very strange - why so polar? And H block's most logical semi-bluff QJ.

I feel like V has plenty of JJ and 88 he might play this way. Obviously V can have us beat here but I think it's MDR call.

Agree not enough bluffs on a board that hits your harder, yet he doesn't X/back river. I'm leaning fold.

I'd skew towards a 4B pre ... HJ vs CO pro.

Interesting turn and river bet. The problem I see is that he shouldn't expect you to call the turn bet and fold to the river bet, so it looks as if he is going for value.

You certainly have a bluff catcher here, but I also don't see any natural bluffs for the villain other than QJ which we block or maybe KQdd. Not sure what to make of his turn sizing - why would he go so big then bet half pot on the river? I think on this board we're still uncapped - I also think his river sizing is more value heavy. I think calling vs folding is extremely close here - maybe vs a tough/creative villain I'm more inclined to call.

In general this looks like turn he is protecting and river he is value betting.

I fold turn vs abc player and call turn and river vs tough pro.

Is it possible this guy is playing JJ or 88 this way, double blocking the nut straight?

It's a weird line, because there wouldn't seem to be much in our range that JJ or 88 could target for value.

Other than turning one of those hands into a bluff, maybe he's barrelling with some Qx holding, most likely AQ/KQ, which we heavily block. Any reads on V might help.

If he's bluffing to get us to lay down an over-pair, that's pretty ambitious. Assuming we're 4B'ing AA/KK pre, he's only targeting QQ to fold, as I don't see how JJ is folding very often.

I think I'd be letting this one go. Feels like he's got AA/KK.

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Interesting hand.

Preflop, we are probably deep enough to 4bet/fold with this specific hand. Theoretically, we may not be balanced, but it is virtually impossible for V to realize it (such spots occurs just too rarely live). Calling is totally ok anyway.

Postflop, what I find really suspicious is that V seems to take a polar line on the turn, but not on the river.
River looks very much like a value bet to me, and the only value we beat is JJ.
If we call, it is mainly for info imo, which might even be worth it if we play regularly against this V.
Value-wise, I lean towards a fold.

Then again, V is very unlikely to have the absolute nuts (while we could very well have it), and indeed it seems he's somehow pot-controlling on the river.
So, if we want to be wild, we might even think of turning QQ into a bluff and shove, but it takes a lot of guts, and a fair amount of FPS too...

If we are folding here then we are calling with sets only or T9s+ only since KK and AA pure 4bet pre.

Vs half pot sizing im calling here without more info on V besides “pro”

I like it, though I certainly don't play this high, and @Hyperion 's posts sound more like the online-equivalent level of skill vs normal live 5-10, to boot. Just pointing out that effective stacks to start were 1,800, and V after this river bet has put in about half that already. Not sure FE is there.

Also, wouldn't we be betting out on this river, if we were trying to represent something nutty? Isn't most of V's range just checking back after their big turn bet didn't kick us out?

I'm folding AP, and then finding another table, lol.

Yeah, FE is not huge, but we'd still shove for 3x the river bet, so more or less a "regular" raise.

Honestly, I do not expect V to ever check back on a blank river, so I wouldn't lead out with the nuts here.

RESULT:

Hero calls vs KK

I just felt a bit too high up in my range to fold. But damn I really don’t think villain has enough bluffs to justify the call :/

Sorry, I somehow misread the HH, and thought the nut straight would have a J in it. I doubt CO is getting here with 87s, so he's repping big over-pairs, or TT/99/T9?

I dunno. I would have preferred to 4B pre from OOP with QQ. The way we've played this hand, we might have some straights, some 2P, some sets, and perhaps a few but not very many over-pairs. His line looks pretty strong, when he's triple-barreling into that range.

Now it seems like the only strong value he has that we beat is JJ. I suppose he might have some bluffs, but they would all seem to be un-paired over-cards, which we heavily block, or some pair he's turning into a bluff, like 88.

His bet sizing on turn looks more like JJ/88 than unpaired over-cards or bit over-pairs, and our hand is fairly under-repped, so I guess we should call, but I'm not fist-pumping here.

It depends. You can't lump all pros in one bucket. Some are extremely aggressive with bluffs and some aren't. I know pros that would be very inclined to barrel the turn with any diamond draw and with QJs, KQs, KQo, KJs, which they likely will 3bet 100% preflop, while KQo might be a fold at some frequency in GTO realm and some of the suited hands might be flats at some frequency. Then they are going to be very likely to fire the river with a range that contains a lot of air. The question is, is this one of those aggro pros? Then you can count combos to see if it is a profitable call, but it is likely going to be a profitable call. I would pay a lot of attention to his sizing tendencies. See if you notice him vary his sizing when he bluffs.