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5/10 @ Borgata: OESFD 5/10 @ Borgata: OESFD

07-31-2011 , 09:44 PM
My stack is ~$900. This is a must-move table, so I didn't reload yet after losing a small hand a few hands ago figuring I would be moving soon to the main game. CO just sat down and bought in for $2k. She is an Asian woman in here late 20s/early 30s, and the only other thing I know is that she has a black card, which means she is likely a regular.

Villain posts $10 in the CO. It folds around to her, and she makes it $35 to go. I am on the BTN, and have 64. I call. Loos-ish player in the SB calls as well. He has been calling a lot of raises with marginal hands so I put him on a wide range here.

Flop ($135): T75

Checks to CO who bets $65. I make it $200 with my OESFD. SB folds. CO thinks a little and calls.

Turn: ($535): T752

Villain thinks for a second and makes it $325.

I have ~ $565 left. Should I shove? Call? What kind of range should I be putting villain on here with no history/reads? Thoughts on other streets? Thanks for the help.
5/10 @ Borgata: OESFD Quote
07-31-2011 , 10:41 PM
u want to be 2k deep here with this villian i know who villian is and it sucks cause if 2k deep u can take either line adn it be correct but i think in this spot its a fold she is gettgin like 7 to 1 on a call
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07-31-2011 , 10:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rays champs in 08
u want to be 2k deep here with this villian i know who villian is and it sucks cause if 2k deep u can take either line adn it be correct but i think in this spot its a fold she is gettgin like 7 to 1 on a call
Yeah, lol, I thought about needing more chips just about then =).

As to folding - isn't our equity good enough to commit even if we know she can never fold? What range do you put her on here?
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08-01-2011 , 12:09 AM
3bet preflop with less than 100 BB imo. I also raise flop bigger and just shovel the turn when I do get to the flop, or flat, but flatting (both pre and flop) is tougher with no reads.
As played, I think you have to fold.
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08-01-2011 , 12:11 AM
fold and be sad.
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08-01-2011 , 12:16 AM
I'm calling here getting correct direct odds. Looks like you have 0 fold equity, so shoving isn't good. You ned to call $325 to win $860. All 6 of the non-spade straight outs are good, and if all 9 flush outs aren't due to a set (for the sake of argument) 7 don't pair the board. So you should have 13-15 outs. We are 29% to win against TT and 31% to win against AsAx.

So we are between a 2.2:1 and 2.5:1 dog. You are getting better than 2.6:1 immediate odds, so this is a correct call even if villain won't put in another penny on the river.

Unless villain will play a better flush/combo draw like this. Seems like a weird way to play the nut flush draw or 89ss, but we don't have any info on her so that probably isn't a very big part of her range. I'm calling with the intention of stacking off on the river with the flush or straight with these stacks.
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08-01-2011 , 01:32 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MarineCorpsDuck
I'm calling here getting correct direct odds. Looks like you have 0 fold equity, so shoving isn't good. You ned to call $325 to win $860. All 6 of the non-spade straight outs are good, and if all 9 flush outs aren't due to a set (for the sake of argument) 7 don't pair the board. So you should have 13-15 outs. We are 29% to win against TT and 31% to win against AsAx.

So we are between a 2.2:1 and 2.5:1 dog. You are getting better than 2.6:1 immediate odds, so this is a correct call even if villain won't put in another penny on the river.

Unless villain will play a better flush/combo draw like this. Seems like a weird way to play the nut flush draw or 89ss, but we don't have any info on her so that probably isn't a very big part of her range. I'm calling with the intention of stacking off on the river with the flush or straight with these stacks.
well articulated. basically same as far as just the turn decision.

However, I think that the CR on the flop is bad even if it's bigger. since I don't think she is folding a good ten against this stack, and there's a chance that her range may include a lot less sometimes because of the wetness of the board. you can get to the river for the same price by CC 2 bets (unless she over bets the turn).

Oh, and BTW it seems like she basically played the hand really well against your specific hand. So I think we can add she knows a thing or 2 to the things we know about her.
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08-01-2011 , 01:49 AM
I dunno I think it's a mistake to assume that you are good 100% of the time that you hit on the river.
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08-01-2011 , 02:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Penguinz21
I dunno I think it's a mistake to assume that you are good 100% of the time that you hit on the river.
So than you would say that it's an easy fold as played. but otherwise, CC flop and turn, and call it a cooler if you're beat when you hit the river...
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08-01-2011 , 02:58 AM
Sizing of flop raise was off bc we left ourself with a weird stack size on turn...
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08-01-2011 , 04:28 AM
How has nobody mentioned the fact that OP does not have an OESFD, but rather a OESD/FD? The former implies two of your outs are to the nuts (SF), which does make a difference if she has an ace high flush draw.

Call turn and fold unimproved on river.
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08-01-2011 , 08:15 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Penguinz21
I dunno I think it's a mistake to assume that you are good 100% of the time that you hit on the river.
+1

Flat, for sure, if you're stuck... How else to get unstuck? Seriously, I don't hate flatting.
Fold might be best.
Ship if you have nothing better to do with whatever you have behind because I really doubt you have FE, and it's unlikely 6 high is good.

In the future, fold or 3b pre. Otherwise, reload... though, just as likely, fold/3b pre.
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08-01-2011 , 08:21 AM
Don't play 64 suited, it's only going to lose you money and put in horrible spots like these.
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08-01-2011 , 12:54 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by joethebeard
well articulated. basically same as far as just the turn decision.

However, I think that the CR on the flop is bad even if it's bigger. since I don't think she is folding a good ten against this stack, and there's a chance that her range may include a lot less sometimes because of the wetness of the board. you can get to the river for the same price by CC 2 bets (unless she over bets the turn).

Oh, and BTW it seems like she basically played the hand really well against your specific hand. So I think we can add she knows a thing or 2 to the things we know about her.
I was in position, so there was no CR.
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08-01-2011 , 01:25 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Setsy
I was in position, so there was no CR.
my bad. still would rather flat twice. but as played def call turn...
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08-01-2011 , 01:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by chilidog0425
How has nobody mentioned the fact that OP does not have an OESFD, but rather a OESD/FD? The former implies two of your outs are to the nuts (SF), which does make a difference if she has an ace high flush draw.

Call turn and fold unimproved on river.
This seems to make the most sense to me because if you do hit (especially the str8), there will be way too much $$ for her to fold a set or an overpair even to your river shove so you get to win the same amount if you do hit and lose less when you miss.

And I would have 3b/or fold pre as well with 90 blinds
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08-01-2011 , 01:31 PM
For me is fold. The biggest problem is we have no idea if when we hit on the river we will have the best hand. I guess villain might play hand like As3s this way.

If we knew that villain doesn't donk his draws call is reasonable cos we have enough odds to do that (esp we are likely to win more on the river). Never shove, we have basically 0 fold equity.

Btw, It would really suck if we call, blank on the river, check/check and villain shows 89 (which is quite possible);]
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08-01-2011 , 02:03 PM
Call turn, fold river unimproved.

If villain is who I think it is you have no FE so shoving is bad but you have 100% implieds if you hit as she will pay you off. She will be 3betting most of her sets and better FDs OOP on the flop so I think the flush is good even on board pairing cards. Her range is mostly good one pair hands here.

Including implieds, you are essentially calling 325 to win 1100 (325 call, to win 535 pot + 565 that villain will put in if you hit) so you need 23% which you have easily if you give yourself all your straight + flush outs, so calling turn folding river UI is +EV.

Also preflop is really bad with your stack size against this villain - you want to be 2k deep at least.
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08-01-2011 , 02:20 PM
I feel like because we started the hand with only 90 BBs we shouldn't be worrying so much about the bigger flush draw. If we were deeper I would be more worried. Of course villain could have a flush draw, but it seems pretty unlikely...unlikely enough that I don't mind getting the remaining ~34 BBs in with a rivered flush.

I think this is especially true if villain is going to pay us off on the river with sets and over pairs when we hit. We have the direct odds against a set/overpair/etc. If you add in $340 in implied odds we're now getting 3.7:1 on our $325 call. We are between 2.2:1 and 2.5:1 dog, so getting 3.7:1 is a pretty decent overlay for the few times we're up against a bigger draw.

Getting 3.7:1 with implied odds means we have to win about 21% of the time. If our flush and straight are both good, we are about 29%-31% to win (against TT and AsAx respectively). That's a difference of 8%-10%. That's a decent cushion, and, going back to my original point in this post, I think we are shallow stacked enough that we should go with it as played. Meaning that if we aren't going to go with it here, we should play it differently pre (fold/3b) and/or on the flop.

I don't disagree with the feedback for the other streets. But once we get here like this, I feel like we have to call and get it in if we improve.
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08-01-2011 , 02:22 PM
i'm calling turn if i think the villain never takes a line like this with big spade cards.

we're really only losing on a turn call if villain is doing this with random spades (since they just about all beat us) at least 45% of the time or something like that, maybe even more...

it's probably ok to call. plus you get tremendous tilt equity if you call and rip off a straight.

guess tilt equity is irrelevant on a must move though
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08-01-2011 , 02:30 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by too eazy

guess tilt equity is irrelevant on a must move though
Not if villain follows you to the main game
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08-01-2011 , 02:39 PM
For those advocating a 3-bet PF, can you explain why you think this is better than calling IP?

On the flop, when I raised my plan was to either a) get it in on the flop or b) shove turn when checked to. I did not plan for a stop-and-go from her, which was my error in planning. I still haven't heard a lot of thoughts on her range for doing this, but would love to hear what range people assign her for this line.

Also, for people advocating calling flop/turn rather than raising flop, why is that a better line?
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08-02-2011 , 02:40 PM
I don't know her, but I would expect to see a lot of Tx/overpairs waiting for that safe turn card before putting in more money. I expect her to have one pair pretty often and I doubt she's ever folding. And yes, you're too shallow to flat.
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08-03-2011 , 04:52 AM
flat, flat, ship.

Jloc- I read this thread and immediately thought of your line recommendation from...

http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/11...e-card-913292/

Last edited by DGAF; 08-03-2011 at 05:00 AM.
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08-07-2011 , 10:35 PM
So you're comin around to it finally, eh?
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