5/10 e1k

hero CO 4h4d open to 25
SB reg to 110.
Hero calls

HU
(230) Flop KhJs9h
x x
(230) Turn 3h
SB bets 80. Hero calls
(390) Riv 5c
x hero bets 800 all in?

Kinda weird little spot here.
Im mostly folding this preflop to the 3bet but like to have baby PP in there at a low freq.
flop might just be a small bet? but i also dont think hes really gonna 3bet and XF Khi very often if at all so my bet doesnt really do anything there so i x back.
Turn getting 4:1 with a pair and a FD pretty hard to fold.
River I just feel like im losing the show down 90% of the time... East bluff with AQo here with a heart. then my next weakest hand is like 22/44/66/77 here i think... Not sure if this size is better than pot. I dont really have too much KQ/KT played this way so i think im repping a set+ for value here so polar seems good and puts QQ/TT/AJ in the cage a bit.
Thoughts?

I don’t think there is any fat value you can represent with your line in position on this board texture. And I think the overbet is a bit much, regardless.

I can check back some FD otf

Your opponent likely didn't have much of a hand. He's probably not checking flop and betting so small on turn with any sort of value.

You probably could have accomplished the same thing betting half pot. In fact, your pair is beating a lot of his A-high and Q-high hands, so you can just check back here a lot.

Out of curiosity, what better 1P hands do you think V has here, that you're trying to fold out when you jam? Do you think V is betting turn with 66-88?

Facing a 4.4x 3b by the sb, I’m folding 44 preflop. I agree with docvail, your river overbet folds out few worse hands, just AJs and QJs and some AJo, maybe 88 and QQ, and you can fold those out with a half-pot bet.

You lost me at Q-high hands… he’s 3betting from the SB pre so he’s not gonna have any Q-hi hands that we beat…
I’m trying to fold out QQ/TT/AJ/QJ/JT

I like betting flop small because you get some better hands like 55/66 to fold and stuff like Ac8c that has good equity but hate this board will often let it go.

But once you check back I would just fold the turn as it's difficult to represent a lot of hands on this line.

I guess if villain doesn't think that deeply and would just shrug fold AJ or QQ because you bet big and the board is scary it's not terrible.

Many will play a 3B or fold strategy from the SB. I know I do. Depending on a variety of factors, it's not inconceivable that he might 3B from the SB with Q8s or some worse suited Qx that flops an inside straight draw, possibly with a flush draw, and a range advantage here.

If you're trying to fold out all those hands you list above, what sorts of hands do you think you're repping, when he checks to you on the flop, you check back, and then you just flat-call his 1/3 pot turn bet?

There's three to a straight and two to a flush on the flop. You're probably not checking back on the flop with 2P, sets, straights, or flush draws. You'd almost certainly be betting all of those hands.

The flush draw comes in on the turn. You're almost certainly not just flat-calling the 1/3 pot turn bet with a flush, if you checked back on flop. Your turned flushes want to start building a pot. Even your slow-played straights, sets, and 2P from the flop will want to raise here, at least some of the time, both for value / protection, and as a semi-bluff.

All of those hands in your list above are pairs + draws on the flop, and are likely to c-bet flop at least some of the time. A lot of his flop checking range is going to be flush draws that get there on there on the turn. He's probably not betting 1/3 pot on turn with a flush after the flop goes x/x. He's probably not betting 1/3 pot with any of his other value, giving you insanely good odds to call and try to out-draw him.

The river is a brick. V checked flop, bet small on turn, and is now checking to you again after you called turn. He clearly doesn't have a flush, but you almost certainly don't have it either. Your jam is polarized to the nuts (a flush) or nothing, but the way you played this, I'd be more inclined to believe you have nothing, not the flush.

Every hand you say you're trying to fold out beats your nothing, and is probably going to call. You're probably not folding out very much that beats you here, and everything you're folding out would probably fold to a much smaller bet.

He's probably not calling a 40% pot bet with A-high or Q-high, both of which you beat, nor is he likely playing 66-88 or A5 this way, and even if he did, he's probably not hero-calling your jam with those hands.

In fact, I'd argue you'll get MORE folds from a smaller bet, because it looks so much like thick value, with no bluffs, whereas your jam allows you to have a ton of bluffs, including some ridiculous air-balls.

Preflop is very marginal.

Turn ditto although I suppose there are bluffs.

If there are bluffs, do some of those give up on the river? You have a smidgen of showdown value and have been given a very, very cheap showdown which it is tempting to grab. But if you bluff, which is also an option, I'd rather go big with something blocking a nuttish hand. You are risking a lot here (although you may create an image as somewhat wild)

If you want to use this river sizing I would build my range around hands containing the ace of hearts so stuff like AhQx would make most sense. Blocking the 4h is quite close to irrelevant given the preflop action. I don't think this 2xp river sizing makes much sense as our flushes likely wouldn't choose this size. I could see possibly using this sizing as an exploit to just fold out range if you think opponent never has a strong hand through this line, which some players just never have anything better than one pair when they check the river. As others mentioned using 3/4-1p as sizing probably accomplishes similar result while risking less. I would also be careful because good players will check river with stuff like AThh AQhh and other Axhh to go for xjam so occasionally you just get snapped by the stone nuts.

seems like a good river spot to go thin and a terrible river spot to bluff tbh. you're doing a great job repping the bluff

Looks fine

Flop stab seems good vs players with enough air in their check range to XF flop a good %. But in reality I think people tend to cbet the air more often than they should, and the x range is more SDV hands that will XC flop, like QQ/TT/AJ/KT/T9/AQ. So then we might have to bluff 2 or 3 streets if we start that OTF? It doesn’t sound terrible.

Yeah I think you're right. I think it's only good if you plan on following through with double or triple.