Not my hand personally but thought it was a really interesting spot to discuss.

8 8 OTB ~$1900 Eff

HJ opens $40. Hero and V in the BB call

9 7 6

Checks to Hero who bets $80, BB x/r to $200 HJ folds Hero calls

Turn 4 (Pot $525)

V bets $500, Hero calls

River K (Pot $1525)

V makes motions toward betting but checks. V has approx $1200 behind.

Hero???

Link to Vlog below, HH starts at 15:25

https://youtu.be/N1Hf9kyJW6c

Reposted in medium-high stakes NL. Admin please delete

Bad call on turn. Overestimates fold equity.

River is an obvious bet if you're going to call turn to bluff the heart, derp.

Aint high stakes.

Once the flop gets check raised the turn call is really bad.

He blocks T8 but should assume this player has 2 pair+

We have the 8H so we block a combo draw of something like Ah8h so he rarely has a combo draw if ever.

That means we beat nothing.

I can get on board with the flop call, but once the turn bricks - we cannot call the turn.

As played river is a pretty standard bet but really think this is a high variance play, and I don't expect it to work all that often. It will be fine if he plays in this pool a lot, so he isn't extremely easy to read as he now has a few bluffs in the range.

I like his vlog, but I also agree that fold equity is prob a bit overestimated here after the turn bet. Unless I missed it, I don't think he addresses the possibility that villain could have stuff like JT/AT type hands as well. When we hold red 88 I would think there is a good chunk of FDs in villain's x/r flop + bomb turn range, so that should factor into how often we should think that we can reliably bluff on heart rivers (although to be fair, it also prob prevents us from losing the river bet on those bluffs since the OOP villain will just likely be shoving the river himself).

easy shove show 8h only

Fine in theory, but vs good players, you're getting called off at a high rate, as you're now capped to 88 or Ah8h.

Hero should probably not have too many A8s in range.

This was another thing I was wondering about. Do we think both villains are going to think hero makes a preflop 3bet with this hand on the button fairly frequently? If we can't rep Axs very effectively then we really are repping a pretty narrow range on that river.

You guys are trying too hard to put thoughts into villain. Just based on results he obv isnt thinking enough about anything.

Which makes bluffing even worse. Therefore turn call is terrible.

Which means we should probably not even bluff river which sucks because that was our plan, meaning our entire plan was dumb.

Basically. Watched the vlog. Villain had the bottom of their range otr and still called, so he overestimated his FE. If the flush hits, villain is still betting their small amount of flush combos. If it doesn't, do we really think they're folding 2p+ enough of the time to make a bluff +ev? I think it's clear the answer is no.

You need them to fold quite a bit, and vs an unknown who c/r and pots turn. I think you have absolutely near 0FE.

It's borderline fish to call the turn.

How much money does V need to have behind for this to be a profitable call with 0 FE And how often do we need to get that stack?

After a certain stack depth, I think you actually have FE on river, but probably not a whole lot on the flush draw, I think more on the straight. Which again, means this is a super fish play.

Part of the reason I like ppl like staples and neemes and they have had good followings is that they're good but definitely not great and at least once a video you see them make a mistake.

I think turn is awful and he's obviously talking strat after the fact and knowing results

I think it's very useful information to beginners, some intermediate players and overall people who are much better than them and are in the same player pools. It's good information for everyone. I wish somebody would vlog in my player pool.

Strat is getting somewhere, but it's not good enough. Need to be deeper for starters.

I think hero's range at river is T8hh, A8hh, 88hx, AThh, TJhh, QThh, A5hh. GTO wise, hero have 6 value combos and 3 bluff combos. That is properly balanced.

What sucks in live poker as he mentioned are people are sticky. People don't fold sets/2p regardless run out.

I have gotten snap called with 45dd on 7h6h2h5c9s river with a big river bet. I was bluffing. That was frustrating moment.

Correctly estimating FE in live poker is pretty important as well.

That's a pretty optimistic range.

This hand is horrible all around. Don't like villains C/R sizing (pretty sure you can eliminate flush and/or combo draws).

HATE the turn call. We aren't even getting odds on river being a Heart to bluff at. Plus if we do hit straight its a scary ***** board... it's not like we get him the pile to rest in at a very high % when that happens.

Guess you have to stuff the river now as played.

What did villain have? 97/67/910?

I don't think turn is that quite awful with a plan. It will work against some players. I would probably take exactly the same line if I think V is the right one who has a fold button.

His mistake was probably overestimating FE.

It was not just probably.

Very villain dependent, small 3bet flop and jam turn is good, as is flat flop and jam turn. I don't think calling turn is very good, our hand is going to be obvious or a 4straight if we hit, villain outdraws us a lot ~25% of the time when we are actually ahead, and will still have hands he probably won't want to fold, like sets and 2 set combos when we try to bluff and he doesn't have hearts. Finally, we have a hand that has decent equity on the turn vs villains range

22-JJ, Axs, 67s+, BBs, 8Ts+, KQo, AJo, AQo to the flop,
66, 77, 88, T8s, 67s for 11 value hands on the turn,
8 Axs flush draws, 3 K+Ts flush draws for 11 strong draws on the turn

when we jam 1700 into 1025 they need to call 1200 to win 2725, so they need 30% equity to call, and with JTs they have 29% equity so they will most likely fold most of their flush draws to our jam.

Our jam needs to work 60% of the time to be immediately profitable, so even if they always bet all their good flush draws, we can't jam any two cards. But specifically with 88, we have 25% equity vs their value range.
Which when we solve 2725*.25*(1-X)=X*.75*1725, where X=Fold Equity, we need 35% FE to make jamming break even. Which works out to roughly 4.5 combos, so if we can put 5 bet/fold hands into villains range, jamming is better than folding. I think we can find them, and I think calling is bad for the reasons above.

I don't think your range of villain is even a little accurate

The only question is which is worse, Vs riv check or heros turn call with the 88h. If hole cards were reversed it would have been a much cooler hand heading to the river.

Sweet, what do you feel is an accurate range?