Live Poker. Effective stacks are two hundred big blinds. Villain just sat down and I have no read on him. He looks young.

Villain opens to $40 from UTG+3, folds to hero in BB who makes it $140 with AKo, Villain thinks for about 12 seconds and raises to $340.

What should hero do and why? What is the plan for remaining streets?


Input is much appreciated. Thanks!

This is pretty nitty, but I don't hate flatting pre. We are underrepped, stacks are deep and will be hard to play OOP post with akward stacks (~10spr if he flats the 3b). SPR is only 3 if we call. One bet and we basicallly are committed-Prob get flamed for this, but I think I muck this pre.

Also I prefer a small 5b/fold to ~580 over flatting the 4b.

In conclusion
Fold to 4b>5b/fold>>Flat 4b
Flame away

Here are my thoughts:

1. I don't mind flatting this initial raise instead of 3 betting against an unknown 200bb's deep out of position. We don't know his tendencies in a 3 bet pot, and it will be hard to get value from worse often. I don't really mind the 3 bet either for obvious reasons. We're raising for value, and taking the initiative. When we flat though, the scenarios for getting multiple streets of value from lesser Kings and Aces and his air range are plentiful.

2. When we get 4 bet, our options pretty much all have drawbacks. If we 5 bet, most of the time we're only getting action from AA, KK. If we 5 bet, and get 6 bet, we've forced ourselves to probably get it in against a dominating range. There is a very good possibility that QQ and AK will fold to a 5 bet, but I think since he's in position, he may flat with those hands instead of fold.

If we flat the 3 bet, we don't hit a pair often enough for the flat to be mathematically sound. Unless we have reads on our opponent, of which we don't, we don't know whether he will always Cbet, or only Cbet when he has a hand. We don't know if he likes to get to showdown, or if he's apt to bluff and spew. It's also going to be difficult to get value when we hit our hand most of the time. If he has JJ,QQ, or KK, and an ace flops, it's going to be one street of value most of the time, and often it will totally freeze our opponent. If we flop a king, we're only going to get action from another AK, and AA, and maybe one street from lesser pairs. Being out of position, without a lot of good options to win a big pot, isn't great 200bb's deep.

So, I guess I like a fold even though its nitty. This is mainly because he's an unknown, we're out of position, and 200bb's deep. If you add it all up, a fold isn't horrible. I like a 5 bet second, and a flat 3rd.

If we knew he had a wide range for 3 betting here and we had solid reads on his play in 3 bet pots and post flop tendencies, my analysis would be totally different. Flatting would go up, as would 5 bet get it in, thus folding would go way down.

ya I like folding here against an unknown

flat his raise pre.

3betting with AKo is nice when there is dead money and/or your in position. In this situation, you have neither.

As played, sigh fold

I posted same thing, from, blind, except i flatted and got beat by kj for two pair. Everyone flamed me for not 3 betting pre. I dont think any of the three options is a mistake in a vaccuum.

What do you expect Villain is thinking about you? Do you look young and internetty? The more you look "feisty", the more I think the 3bet and then proceeding with the hand by calling or 5 betting is necessary. Because he just joined the table (and more so if you look young and feisty) I think he'll be more likely to be getting out of line against you, thinking you are testing him early in the game.

I think against a typical unknown live player, a 3bet with AK is profitable from anywhere and with any stack depth. In my experience, players call 3bets waaaay too wide, and are straightforward to play against postflop (in or out of position). Maybe this guy looked tougher than typical, but I have no qualms about 3betting AK OOP 200bb deep against your typical 5/10 NL live player.

His 4bet sizing was on the smaller side also, which I think makes it easier to justify calling, which is what I would do.

Why is 5bet folding appealing? Aren't we unnecessarily turning a hand with some value into a bluff? Wouldn't it be better to wait for the bottom of our 3betting range to occasionally 5bet/fold?

With no reads I think both flatting and 3betting are both equally good and I'd probably 3bet as a default. If villain was in earlier position or we had a read that he was either good or tight then it becomes a clear call. How villain sees you is worth noting as well (how old are you?).

Facing the 4bet I think it's close between folding and calling. In a vacuum I'd assume his value range is only AA/KK and without knowing his frequencies I doubt it's going to be a profitable spot to continue OOP even if he does have some random garbage. Sure it's exploitable, but there's not existing history or dynamic yet that allows him to exploit it and of course you won't continue to 3bet/fold against this same villain in the future.

I am 34 yrs old. And I pretty much look my age. So I don't know what that says about me to him.

The weird thing is it looked like for a second he was going to fold, and then decided to 4 bet. Then after the hand, someone told me that the villain is kind of known to be a maniac.

But the problem with calling in this spot is that I feel like I am going to get outplayed a lot and I'm not really comfortable 5 betting. So I really think flatting and under-repping is the best line.

I think flatting is a mistake.

+1

Flat pre.

3-bet. Fold. Std. If he's 4-betting a random 34 y/o man light with no reads then he totally fuqqed up this hand (unless you're his mark and he's setting you up to spaz AK/QQ/JJ for 2k later).

With no reads or previous dynamics, I dont really think you are underrepped at all given stack sizes and the betting action. He is probably going to put you on a TT-QQ and AK range quite often and proceed accordingly.

With no reads or game-flow dynamics I think you have to fold this to the 4 bet.

I'd prob be much more likely to 3bet since he just sat down, most people hate to stack off light for 200bb in their first orbit so a triple barrel with air will get through pretty often vs his weaker value hands. Obviously there are exceptions but I feel like this is generally true vs most live players.

By flatting the only times we get big value is when he hits the same top pair with an inferior kicker, which doesn't happen all that often. Either we c/f sometimes, subject ourselves to a bit of a guessing game calling down with ace high OOP, or if we hit our hand and he has a pair smaller than TP we get maybe one street of value before he shrug-folds.

I guess, he meant flat the open raise, i can't see how it could under rep our hard to flat call a 4bet oop with AKo

Isn't it 2006 strategy here to raise/fold here with no hand history? Everyone getting really into the hand and while I like all the input and analysis seems really standard

I like a flat pre if its HU or looks like it will most likely be HU. Keeps our hand under repped and allows villain to Value town himself a whole lot. Also we can proceed on lots of boards we don't connect on and decide if pot can be picked up with some aggressive lines and scary board textures...

It's completely situation dependent. Table image is huge here.

On the occasions where I flat, it's because I'm trying to keep dominated hands in and keep the pot manageable OOP.

3b PF is fine, as played facing a 4b vs a unknown I think folding is fine