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5/10 AA line check 5/10 AA line check

11-27-2022 , 06:15 AM
V(SB, covers) early 20s grinder, plays poker for living.

Utg limped Utg +1 limped and Utg +2 limped, hero(3700) raised to 80 with red AA on button, SB called, utg+1 and +2 called.

Flop(340) 278r
Check check check hero bet 200, only Sb called.

Turn(740) K no backdoor flush
Check, hero bet 450, SB raised to 950 hero called.

River(2640) 5
SB all in and covered hero, hero has about 2500 left and folded.

Is turn a call ? any merits just get it in on turn?
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11-28-2022 , 08:55 AM
I'm honestly already concerned after the x/r on the turn. Since the small x/r looks strong and if you call the raise he can ship the river with less then ps left.

Even if he is a pro I don't think people go crazy here in a mw pot. Would he really play oesd like that? And once you etsbalished that he is bluffing enough on the turn you have to make an assumption on how often he is bluffing the river. Because if he bluffs the river at a high frequency and you fold on a blank might be costing you money. On the river you see that the hand got somewhat out of control since the pot is already bigger than 250 bb and he is shoving another 250 bb into you and you beat zero hands that do this for value, so especially this deep I'd just muck the turn. If you have enough reads to continue obviously just call, but as stated above you should already have an idea what to do on the river.
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11-28-2022 , 10:20 AM
Quote:
Is turn a call ? any merits just get it in on turn?
The biggest mistake you could make on this hand would be getting it in on the Turn. When he check-raises THAT turn, you’re only beating his bluffs—so if you Get It In, he’ll fold everything in his bluff range and call everything in his value range, but everything in his value range has you crushed. So shoving over his check-raise is very very very bad.

My general advice is that this is a 2 street of value hand, so you should be planning on checking the Turn or River. (I would check the Turn, just because, once the K hits, SB has so many fewer worse hands that he can call with—he’s not calling you again with 98, for instance.)

As played, though, I don’t think your plan to call the Turn while folding to a River shove is bad. The “if you called the Turn you MUST call the River” line of thinking (that you sometimes hear from commentators) is so dumb—your play is fine.
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11-28-2022 , 10:37 AM
If you’re going to fold, it’s the turn. When you call, you have to expect him to blast the river. The board is pretty good for your hand (but his likely calling range), I think this comes down to A) what are his bluffs and B) what’s his value range OTT? I would assume his value range is 2 pair+ and his small C/R size is heavily skewed to value.

If I’m being honest, I would probably call the turn in real time and then tank fold the river, but I think folding the turn is probably the best play. Remember, you cbet against a ton of people and he called with the worse possible position knowing it could get raised behind him - he has a reasonable holding.
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11-28-2022 , 02:47 PM
You prolly want to mainly check the flop this multi-way. The sb flatting the raise is indicative of medium pairs so this flop x/call is concerning.

I don’t think we can fold turn to the minclick and I like the bet on this card.

River is going to be very dependent on the dynamic between you two. His range is 88/77 and hands that block those sets. If you have a tight image and are known to make big folds then I would call here. He’s a pro so he will for sure have bluffs but a lot is dependent on what he thinks you are likely to do with Kx/AA…
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11-28-2022 , 03:20 PM
When pro called next to act out of the SB for 80 vs a button raise it's prbably gonna be mostly PP's. He's likely (depending on accuracy of reads as usual) 3betting kings and AK. I don't think he flats K8s pre or most two pair combos (even sc's). Also the king hits our range and he only minraised; it doesn't seem like he thinks you have air and is bluffing but I think if we called the turn we have to call off the river. Whether or not we flat the turn has a lot to do with our own image too. If he sees you as a tight player, I would fold, and if he sees you as a slag I would snap the turn and river.
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11-28-2022 , 07:00 PM
Flop bet is fine multi-way with your exact hand, although you will be checking often. I think a split strategy is fine on this board. Bet with your overpairs, sets, two pairs, best top pairs, and best draws for a bigger sizing. Check the rest. You have a good hand, can get called by pairs and straight draws, and want to thin the field here.

I don’t like the turn bet. You’re not airballing flop with like AK or KQ often multi-way, so the K actually doesn’t help your range that much. I check back here and call a ton of different rivers and sizings.

When all the money goes in here, in a single raised pot, 2.5k+ deep, and you have a single pair of aces, you’re losing the vast vast majority of the time.


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11-29-2022 , 07:35 AM
I'm someone who more or less fits the description of villain. If I flat pre in that spot I am basically 100% setmining vs weak opponents. Against decent ones just 3b or fold. T9s, what his main bluff should be is very borderline, but under no circumstances call sb pre. 56s even less so. I imagine him playing the same strategy. When he calls limpers mostly call behind and it's often really hard to get to sd with the best hand/get value with strong holdings being out of position to 3 players. So you can only play really decent hands profitably, and those might as well 3b. I think, no matter the stack depth, you are better off just mucking 88/77- and 3betting the rest unless at least one but rather two villains are horrible.

The bottom line is against described opponent I would fold anything but sets ott. It's very close though, mostly because you have two outs to stack him. Other than that you have very little/0 equity. Can't really blame you for calling, river fold is good, overall well played hand. I think you kind of beat villain in this pot, he barely got a thousand out of you with most likely a set vs AA on the driest board one can imagine, so his setmine looks quite bad in the long run. Obviously other two limpers might have been complete fish, who just missed now which would make his play okay, but against you it's definitely losing.
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