[MID] 5/10 4! AA and runs out a bit dicey - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

Two Plus Two Forums Poker Strategy Live No-Limit Hold’em Cash

[MID] 5/10 4! AA and runs out a bit dicey

Post Reply Subscribe

...

06-15-2023 , 09:24 PM

hyperknit

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2016 Posts: 2,692

5/10 e1k
Mp loose bad reg opens 30
BTN LAG pro to 100.
Hero SB AsAc to 250.
BTN calls.
HU
(540) flop Td6d4d
Hero bets 135. BTN calls.
(810) Turn Ad
X v bets 300. Hero?

So if I call here then the pot will be 1.4 and we have 300 left?
But does jamming actually do anything? He’s never folding a diamond so there’s no equity denial achieved (I guess I push him off his chop equity??)
I can maybe get value from TT but is that actually gonna be here? I doubt it
Calling and x river feels like the definition of reverse free-roll?
I’m really lost in this spot. I think he bet too big. It he bets 200 or even 150 I think he makes my life much tougher.
What do u do?

Quote

06-15-2023 , 09:34 PM

madlex

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 17,464

Unless I'm missing something, you're getting the correct odds to call and draw to 10 outs?

Quote

06-16-2023 , 12:43 AM

hyperknit

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2016 Posts: 2,692

Quote:

Originally Posted by madlex

Unless I'm missing something, you're getting the correct odds to call and draw to 10 outs?

I agree that calling>folding

Quote

06-16-2023 , 01:56 AM

hyperknit

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2016 Posts: 2,692

What about betting turn really small again? I don’t think he gets to just fold all his non-diamond hands getting 5:1

Quote

06-16-2023 , 02:27 AM

Mlark

old hand

Join Date: Dec 2022 Posts: 1,689

Check call turn. Even if board doesn't pair, I probably still check call river. The bet is just too small. If anyone is going to have bluffs on river, it is going to be this "lag pro."

Quote

06-16-2023 , 09:32 AM

madlex

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 17,464

Quote:

Originally Posted by hyperknit

What about betting turn really small again? I don’t think he gets to just fold all his non-diamond hands getting 5:1

The argument for betting the turn in any fashion is that it removes a potentially difficult decision. But only with our actual hand.

That's one of the HHs that looks very interesting but probably isn't worth spending much study time on. We're getting to the turn with a 75% pot bet left and the actual turn card probably eliminates half our range. We can't have AKdd/AQdd/A5dd anymore and AA went from 6 to 3 combos. What's left are the other 3 combos AA, KK, QQ and whatever else you decided to 4bet with.

Quote

06-18-2023 , 11:57 PM

hyperknit

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2016 Posts: 2,692

RESULT
hero XR turn all in and villain tank folds?
I can’t think of a single combo that tank folds here tbh. TT is priced in… no way a diamond can fold here with that price in a 4bp. Idk

Quote

06-19-2023 , 07:04 PM

madlex

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 17,464

Jacks no diamond maybe? Assuming he ships QQ+ pre.

Ax no diamond might be another possibility, even though the only reason to call flop with that hand would be a read that he can take it away from you later.

Quote

06-19-2023 , 08:22 PM

AKQJ10

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 13,299

Quote:

Originally Posted by hyperknit

RESULT
hero XR turn all in and villain tank folds?
I can’t think of a single combo that tank folds here tbh. TT is priced in… no way a diamond can fold here with that price in a 4bp. Idk

Given your read, could it be something like 98cc? Seems like he saw value to floating your flop downbet planning to bluff most turns if checked to. Seems like it would have worked if the Kd turns instead of the ace. I'm not giving much credence to the tanking unless it was several minutes or you have some other read it was sincere.

At a flop SPR of 1.5 against this player profile, you have overabundant license to call down on almost any runout, don't you? So the question is how to get money in best. It's hard to imagine a river bluff of $300 into $1400, but XC turn XC river might be your best line.

Quote

06-20-2023 , 10:42 AM

#10

DEKE01

adept

Join Date: Apr 2020 Posts: 905

Quote:

Originally Posted by hyperknit

I can’t think of a single combo that tank folds here tbh.

Sometimes when I've been running an air bluff and get caught vs a big bettor, I work on my meta game to bluff in my next big hand. I'll tank fold, but before doing so I'll pretend to count outs, stand up, count chips, remove my hat, point to players that were in the hand, ask for Vs stack count, anything to prove I'm having a difficult decision. All of that is to convince a table I'm having a difficult decision. I'll do this when the table has yet to figure out that I'm bluffing more often than not.

Quote

06-20-2023 , 03:21 PM

#11

Slap My Jack

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2006 Posts: 3,158

Quote:

Originally Posted by hyperknit

RESULT
hero XR turn all in and villain tank folds?
I can’t think of a single combo that tank folds here tbh. TT is priced in… no way a diamond can fold here with that price in a 4bp. Idk

If he's really a lag pro (prefer the old skewl definitely not ironic term "smart lag" personally), shouldn't he be able to get away from QQd/JJd/99d/etc here some of the time?

Quote

06-20-2023 , 03:39 PM

#12

javi

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2008 Posts: 8,233

Your flop bet kept him wide so I'm guessing he just had air. Next time call

Quote

06-20-2023 , 04:42 PM

#13

pokerfan655

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 1,387

I think your flop sizing is terrible for this texture. It's a 4b pot - if we ship he isn't folding his big pairs nor his big diamonds. As played on the turn - just c/c and fold river unimproved.

Quote

06-20-2023 , 06:21 PM

#14

djevans

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 5,053

Dude had air most likely and used the diamond as a scare card. I doubt he does anything else if you call turn so jamming is probably the best play.

Rest of the hand was fine - I might bet flop $200

Maybe he rips river if you check call, check? You never really know in this game - for all you know he had a diamond and you got him off the best hand.

Quote

06-21-2023 , 09:53 AM

#15

OmahaDonk

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Apr 2011 Posts: 4,934

Calling is probably the right play vs a good player but if we raise we give him a chance to make a huge mistake like folding a diamond or calling with a set. I would raise and see what happens, it’s not like call turn fold river is attractive.

Quote

06-21-2023 , 10:11 AM

#16

AKQJ10

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 13,299

Yeah now I'm starting to lean more toward X/jam.

I definitely don't think you should fold any street at this flop SPR and with a premium bluff catcher if you don't fill. On one hand it's unlikely but slightly feasible you induce a river bluff. (It's correct to bluff some rivers getting 6:1 at LHE, for example.)

Otoh it's unlikely but slightly feasible you get value from a set, knock out 88 with a diamond, or prevent a chop on a fifth diamond. (If you XC the turn, seems plausible he'd sigh-call your weird donk bluff to win half, no?)

So all those scenarios are remote but I guess the accumulation leans toward XRAI.

Quote

06-21-2023 , 10:12 AM

#17

Yogurt Daddy

adept

Join Date: Nov 2022 Posts: 1,022

Quote:

Originally Posted by pokerfan655

I think your flop sizing is terrible for this texture. It's a 4b pot - if we ship he isn't folding his big pairs nor his big diamonds. As played on the turn - just c/c and fold river unimproved.

4bet pot is the reason we keep cbets small. We don't need to make large bets to get money in by river. 25% are pretty standard cbet size for 4bet pots.

You also never c/c and then c/f unimproved unless you know the V very well.

Quote

06-21-2023 , 10:15 AM

#18

Yogurt Daddy

adept

Join Date: Nov 2022 Posts: 1,022

Hand is played fine.

You can bet super small on turn if you want. Like 10% small. This is all you'd bet with your nut flushes and Q high flushes as well.

When you check turn, you can c/c or c/jam. Either is fine.

Basically never folding here or river without some pretty convincing reads/history. We are playing 100bb in a 4b pot with set of AA. We just die here when we are beat without compelling reason not to.

Quote

06-21-2023 , 11:21 AM

#19

ChaosInEquilibrium

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2019 Posts: 3,341

Why are you check/raising into a polarized range with a hand that needs no protections versus Vs bluffs?

V either has a diamond and you have 20% equity.

Or V has an air bluff like JJ/QQ no diamond or a low equity bluff like black KQ and you have 95%+ equity.

Versus a range of air/value, we want to call turn with our bluffcatchers.

I simply cannot understand the rationale to raise turn and let V off the hook with his bluffs.

Edit: Reading your analysis, I guess I can see the rationale to jam if you think V can have TT. But I’m not convinced that V would bet the turn with that hand. It’s a bit of a nonsensical bet.

Quote

06-21-2023 , 11:36 AM

#20

AKQJ10

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 13,299

Quote:

Originally Posted by ChaosInEquilibrium

like black KQ and you have 95%+ equity.

KQcc has 17% against us hot and cold. 10 of the 17 comes from a diamond falling on the river.

Quote

06-21-2023 , 11:51 AM

#21

ChaosInEquilibrium

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2019 Posts: 3,341

Quote:

Originally Posted by AKQJ10

KQcc has 17% against us hot and cold. 10 of the 17 comes from a diamond falling on the river.

Thank you, I missed the chop outs. His bluffs have between 10-17% equity depending on whether he has a gutter. V range is still mostly polarized to very high equity and low equity hands, although not quite as extreme as I suggested.

Quote

Post Reply Subscribe

...