5/10 e1K
8 max
Hero UTG QcJc open 30.
BTN LAG calls
BB fish calls
3 ways
(95) flop Ac6c3d
X hero bets 40. BTN fold. BB calls.
(175) turn Qd
X hero tank x

As soon as I x v snap bets 175 in the dark.
(175) riv 2c
V bets 175. Hero tank raises to 930 all in.

Is this river raise too thin?
Obviously I’m raising all my Khi flushes, and I was thinking I could raise the naked Kc blocker for my bluffs. But I actually don’t have any naked Kc. I don’t open KQo UTG 8max, and I don’t cbet KK on the flop. So I might have stone zero bluffs here. And how can I extend my value range when my range has no bluffs?

All that being said… how can I not raise here

It's a raise but i don't like shoving. Be weird for villain to dark bet a flush draw. I think he is weighted towards very good hands like AQ here. I think something like 550 is better.

How fishy is the BB? Does the fish not think that you have to be bluffing over 50% of the time to make this a call? Are they going to fold the nut flush?

The villain didn't play this like they had a set if they were a fish. They would be raising the flop. That's about all they can have that might feel like they have to call. I'd put it this way. If the villain didn't call, it was a failed bet. You risked your stack with little possibility of winning.

What’s a failed bet? Is that what results oriented players call it when a value raise doesn’t get called?

Shove seems fine here. Raising is fine too but it’s probably a villain dependent spot.

You have AxKc as a bluff

River i’d raise small like to 425 and fold to jam, we are mostly targeting crying calls from 2pair+ i doubt V has many flushes that aren’t the nut flush.

I’d raise small with KcQc too, jam KcJc KcTc AxKc for balance.

I would have to raise, although I'm not balanced enough to use an over-bet size. I'd use something more standard like 1/2 pot and just make a 2.5-3x raise, also leaves room for raise fold if he's not the type to 3-bet bluff you with Kc blocker, and it needs less bluffs to make V calls indifferent if you aren't finding enough. Overbet jam depends on your image I think, it could be best with your dynamic with V. I suppose AxKc is a good bluff if you are putting him on 2pair+ and expect him to fold those sometimes, otherwise it seems like too good of a hand to be turning into a bluff. I'd think it plays better as a flat depending on how you are ranging V.

I wouldn't both worrying about that. You describe villain as a fish. Is he really going to track what you are doing well enough to notice that your raises in this type of rare situation are always value?

A failed bet is one where the villain is going to fold all hands worse than yours and only calls with better hands. You risked your money with no chance of winning anything.

WP!

Fish will always call 2p+

KQo seems like a mandatory open 8 handed

I'm betting the turn here.

The fold jam is a little weird, as H goes from a value line to a polarized line in response to V's polarized dark bet.

Why not revert to the value line and raise him like 350 and offer him 2-1 on his call so he has to MDF call a lot of his range here? His range has to be pretty Ax-heavy.

Definitely raising river and any thought of b/f is ridiculous. Shove looks bluffy, looks good. Wouldn’t hate a valuey bet either.

I think the raise here for value is fine, and the sizing is okay IMO against this villain. Reason why is based on how you've described them, they seem like a fish that might be overplaying and calling with two pair aces on this board (you block none of the aces), so shoving might actually get them to call since they feel like they've already committed to the pot.

Normally, if it's a skilled player, I might raise a bit smaller because your hand is likely quite strong against the other holdings that they might have. Sure, they could show up with K10c some of the time, but that's just 1 combo out of the many others that they could have. So if you're raising for value against a strong player, I think targeting the Aces, Aces two-pair, lower flushes, and maybe sets (normal skilled player would take the line of raising sets IMO), makes sense, and I would probably go for $500-600 instead.

Standard ckshove against a fish against whom you should have no bluffs when he bets pot on this river. You're already 'extending your value range' when shoving with both the 2nd and 3rd nut card facing a psb on the end, so, everything looks great. It's even better against his BB range which if fishy enough should have almost all club combos.

I mean, the vibe set her is that he'd just bet SNAP off a small flush without any of the 1-3 nut cards in his hand.

not ckshove, just a shove. Again, shoving w QJs here is just soooooo disrespectful, so really spend no time worrying about anything range-wise other than stomping fish.

Prob marginal since we see Jc, but it’s a fish who smoke bets the pot on the river. I wouldn’t beat myself up too bad if you ran into it for an all in, because they’ll probably call with worse frequently.