It is a good river for hero exactly because what you said. Hero doesn't have many Kx after calling flop, so villain gets to bluff the K turn very wide. In response, hero shouldn't fold his Tx, while villain checks back most Tx ott. This leads to hero having a huge trips advantage otr, thus it's a good card for him.

Betting AK otr is very marginal, I would say it 100% depends on dynamics. Solver likely still bets it, probably even weaker kings, but it gets very hard in a live game to get called by worse. Against faceup station players you have to bet/fold small, other than that it's ok to xb imo.

What I’m saying is I don’t think v can liberally blast off here when the middle card pairs.

The 10 is much better for hero’s range than V.

So theoretically we should be leading this card quite a bit.

i disagree to an extent, although the T is better for the callers range its a relatively good card for the V

River: Th 7h 3d Kd Ts ($2800)

If he has a big Over pair it makes it MUCH less likely hero has KT or a T in general as the number of combos is significantly reduced. all draws miss (both flush draws, and all straight draws)

He now feels comfortable going for value more than if the T didn't come. how many Hero T are continuing to the aggression OTT?

Going for value against what? If hero folds Tx ott,

1. he can cbet turn atc and print a ton

2. hero has nothing otr but slowplayed fhs and busted draws.

Obviously he shouldn't bet AK against that range otr and hero should donkshove a little and xf most of his range. Anyway don't fold Tx ott!

I'd lead something like 1/4 pot or something. I think he checks behind a lot more than he bets.

Have you played LIVE NL?

Hero has tons of hands that would call a river bet on this exact runout if he gets here this way. Otoh v is in big time check behind mode here so I’m def betting small to induce

I like calling flop vs. player with overbet sizings. Lots of turns he can oblige and bet big I think. On turn I think check raise needs to be heavily considered with a lot of his double barrels picking up equity vs. our hand and our need to pay off river bets with the line we took. He can easily have picked up back door diamonds, lots of gutshots, open ended draw, or combo draw. I didn’t check for effective stack on turn to see what size makes sense, but I like check raising on turn against a solid player because it gives them a chance to put more money in behind and limits our chances of a mistake on the river.

AP there is no way to mess up the river, I thinking checking or blocking bet(depending on how often you make those with bluff catchers) is superior to betting yourself for a normal size. Nice catch!

Yeah, I played a fair amount lol. You didn't answer the question though, what are those 'ton of hands' that AK get v from otr? KQhh, KJhh, K9hh and these are not even pure, could take a different line pre or otf. Hero might have floated some other Kx otf, but he really shouldn't have.

We need to have x/raise bluffs on the flop especially vs good opposition. I am not sure how often top set wants to xraise but half the time sounds good. Like the flop x/call vs this profile as well as turn x/call because of range interaction.

Otr his range is AA/KK/AK/KQ/77 and air.
I don’t think he checks back value otr when he polarizes turn. The hands that would pay your river donk will also bet for value. I think this is even more likely to occur with the meta of him knowing he has many bluffs here and so can jam for value with as low as KQ.

As a result x river and welcome bets from all the trash

I think I mostly x/r all-in on turn ... just so much easier way to play. Would be happier letting V blast off if the board didn't have 666 draws on it.

Given we got to the river this way because we thought V would blast off, and we have the nuts, check.

And I will say I've been in V's spot a few times getting ready to put all the chips in and hope H folds ... only to see V lead river and be like "Oh, I guess H has close to the nuts and is never folding. I guess I save my 100bb then."
Like even if you lead for $800 a shove is going to be $2k into $4k, so call $2k to win $6k for H.

I'm not sure about the solver. One of the things that surprised me a little when I started playing around with solvers is they don't value bet as thinly as you would expect.

The reason we all associate thin value betting with good play is because we're all so used to playing against either (a) bad players whose rangers are too wide in any given spot (and therefore they have to pay off with a lot of bad hands), and (b) "solid" non-GTO winning players who don't have balanced checking ranges in many standard spots.

Results?

I check and Villain tank checks back. Not sure what he had, perhaps a missed bluff or he had a good read on me and checked back value.

I ran this hand in PIO (not using solver preflop ranges though, so my results are probably different from Joe’s) and it seems Villain will check back AA on the river about half the time (red Aces want to check the most, and black aces always jam…the rest of the AA combos are close between check/bet). I gave OOP a lot of Tx combos in the preflop range, incl ATs/JTs/T9s, which may have influenced the results.

Even though solver does lead river a fair amount, I think I still prefer to check because live villains probably aren’t checking back AA on the end, and it leaves open the opportunity to induce bluffs.