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5/10/25 River decision with set on not so great runout 5/10/25 River decision with set on not so great runout

07-01-2023 , 06:33 AM
5/10 with mandatory $25 straddle. Non Capped. Time Rake

$5k effective


CO: $75
BB: Hero with 3c3d calls $75

Pot: $165

Flop: Ad 3c 2d

Hero: checks
CO: bets $120
Hero: $360
CO: calls

Pot: $885

Turn: Ad 3c 2d 5s

Hero: $450
CO: call

Pot: $1785

River: Ad 3c 2d 5s 8c

Hero: ???
5/10/25 River decision with set on not so great runout Quote
07-01-2023 , 08:30 AM
Bet 1k/ fold to jam
5/10/25 River decision with set on not so great runout Quote
07-01-2023 , 11:21 PM
ckc flop obv cant raise A23 without a 4 or a 5 deep this line is embarrassing.
5/10/25 River decision with set on not so great runout Quote
07-02-2023 , 12:02 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Amanaplan
ckc flop obv cant raise A23 without a 4 or a 5 deep this line is embarrassing.
If this isn't a troll, this post is embarrassing.


- We are only playing 200bb deep

- If you only raise here with a 4 or a 5, that means you're likely only raising similarly connected flops when you block or have the nuts. Which means anyone at the table paying attention is going to run over you.

- 54s and 33 are literally our most frequent c/r on this flop. Much more than any other combo we can have here. Especially when we hold 3c or have 5c4c. (solver sim had different suits, but same result)

(misclicked the flop in solver we have 3d and two diamonds on flop. Doesn't matter though. When we hold 3x of the same suit as FDFD, it's almost 100% c/r spot)


Last edited by Solving Live Poker; 07-02-2023 at 12:16 AM.
5/10/25 River decision with set on not so great runout Quote
07-02-2023 , 12:59 AM
1200 the turn jam river, opponent is calling your check raise with plenty of strong but weaker than a set hands, and you're taking a very polarizing line on the flop. Look at the sort of hands you're raising here, you have a decent number of bluffs and a bunch of hands that beat top pair or two pair. If you aren't going for large value with a set here, you won't be able to bluff as many hands as you would like to
5/10/25 River decision with set on not so great runout Quote
07-02-2023 , 02:22 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Amanaplan
ckc flop obv cant raise A23 without a 4 or a 5 deep this line is embarrassing.
Going "it's obv" without explaining why should be the thing to feel embarrassed about tbh
5/10/25 River decision with set on not so great runout Quote
07-02-2023 , 03:28 AM
Error in first post, 3c in our hand and on board. But I assume we have the 3d and that is the more relevant part.

Seems like a good spot to block bet OOP, about 33% pot /$600 or so. Mainly fold to a jam, but sliver seems to mix call about 25% of time or so.

Villain is supposed to be bluff jamming with Qd5d, 6h5h, 6c5c (mixes fold), and actually supposed to bluff raise AK a fair amount of time (depending on combo, AK is either a pure fold, call/raise, or call/raise/fold). Having Kd is a pure fold, having clubs mixes fold/call raise, and having spade/heart is mixing call raise. This is assuming it was 3c on the flop and not in our hand, meaning clubs were the backdoor flush draw on flop.

Villain would need to be crafty to find the bluffs here. I mean, it does somewhat make sense - if we bet relatively small here that somewhat caps our range, so villain may figure they can get us to fold by repping a 4. We should be using this line with some 4x to protect our block bet range. Solver especially likes 44 for this.

But mainly, I think if we take the 1/3 block bet sizing, we should be able to get value from aces (especially good aces), 2 pair, and 22. Much more and we are going to start folding our the hands we can get value from. We can hope to get called from a villain hoping we have missed diamonds or something along those lines.
5/10/25 River decision with set on not so great runout Quote
07-02-2023 , 06:19 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mlark
Error in first post, 3c in our hand and on board. But I assume we have the 3d and that is the more relevant part.

Seems like a good spot to block bet OOP, about 33% pot /$600 or so. Mainly fold to a jam, but sliver seems to mix call about 25% of time or so.

Villain is supposed to be bluff jamming with Qd5d, 6h5h, 6c5c (mixes fold), and actually supposed to bluff raise AK a fair amount of time (depending on combo, AK is either a pure fold, call/raise, or call/raise/fold). Having Kd is a pure fold, having clubs mixes fold/call raise, and having spade/heart is mixing call raise. This is assuming it was 3c on the flop and not in our hand, meaning clubs were the backdoor flush draw on flop.

Villain would need to be crafty to find the bluffs here. I mean, it does somewhat make sense - if we bet relatively small here that somewhat caps our range, so villain may figure they can get us to fold by repping a 4. We should be using this line with some 4x to protect our block bet range. Solver especially likes 44 for this.

But mainly, I think if we take the 1/3 block bet sizing, we should be able to get value from aces (especially good aces), 2 pair, and 22. Much more and we are going to start folding our the hands we can get value from. We can hope to get called from a villain hoping we have missed diamonds or something along those lines.

Ya, sorry about that. Couldn't go back and edit. We have 3c in hand and two clubs on flop.
5/10/25 River decision with set on not so great runout Quote
07-02-2023 , 06:29 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ranma4703
1200 the turn jam river, opponent is calling your check raise with plenty of strong but weaker than a set hands, and you're taking a very polarizing line on the flop. Look at the sort of hands you're raising here, you have a decent number of bluffs and a bunch of hands that beat top pair or two pair. If you aren't going for large value with a set here, you won't be able to bluff as many hands as you would like to
Taking this line as an exploit or why? Overbet turn and jam river *should* fold out hands like AK and AQ....mostly on the turn for that sizing...in a vacuum.

V should only call turn overbets with AA, A5, A3, A2, flush draws, and made straights. Obviously if we don't think he folds AK and AQ elastically, then we can bet as much as we want.
5/10/25 River decision with set on not so great runout Quote
07-02-2023 , 02:27 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Solving Live Poker
Ya, sorry about that. Couldn't go back and edit. We have 3c in hand and two clubs on flop.

I’m a bit confused- river was the 8c, did the flush draw complete otr?
5/10/25 River decision with set on not so great runout Quote
07-02-2023 , 02:59 PM
OP are you the 10 blind or 25 blind?

River seems like an easy block / fold.

Ranma are you overbet / folding turn?
5/10/25 River decision with set on not so great runout Quote
07-02-2023 , 04:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jvds
I’m a bit confused- river was the 8c, did the flush draw complete otr?
No. We have 3d. No flush draw completes.
5/10/25 River decision with set on not so great runout Quote
07-02-2023 , 05:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Solving Live Poker
No. We have 3d. No flush draw completes.

Ok thanks. I’d probably go 2/3p on turn and river, but don’t feel strongly about that.

I don’t think 33 is quite strong enough to overbet/jam unless V is especially loose, and I’m not convinced we want to have an overbet range ott at all, but am curious to hear thoughts on that.
5/10/25 River decision with set on not so great runout Quote
07-02-2023 , 05:31 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jvds
Ok thanks. I’d probably go 2/3p on turn and river, but don’t feel strongly about that.

I don’t think 33 is quite strong enough to overbet/jam unless V is especially loose, and I’m not convinced we want to have an overbet range ott at all, but am curious to hear thoughts on that.
Ya, this isn't really an overbet spot. Possibly as an exploit though.
5/10/25 River decision with set on not so great runout Quote
07-02-2023 , 07:17 PM
Overbet isn't really a thing on turn when it is 4 to a straight. It is hard to continue here vs that size. You miss value, don't get a good price on your bluffs.
5/10/25 River decision with set on not so great runout Quote

      
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