Pretty cool situation came up last night.

5/10/25 non capped time rake.

$10k effective

V1: first time playing with him. Have been playing around 9hrs at this point. Haven't seen him do anything special and also haven't seen him punt much. Though there haven't been many shown down hands. He does seem smart enough to lay down big hands at the right time. But that's almost a pure hunch based on his observed play with a small sample size.

V2: Semi-bad reg who has admittedly gotten quite a bit better in the last few months. But won't be very consequential.

Hero: top 3 or so winning players in this game. V2 knows this. Not sure about V1.


V2: opens to $75 in MP
Hero: 3bets to $225 in CO with AdQd
V1: cold calls $225 on BTN
V2: calls $225
All 3 blinds fold

Pot: $715

Flop: As 7c 4d

V2: checks
Hero: bets $250
V1: calls $250
V2: folds

Pot: $1215

Turn: As 7c 4d 7d

Hero: bets $950
V1: raises to $2800

Hero: ???

Before deciding what to do here, we have around $8575. If we call the extra $1850, we will have about $6725 and the pot will be $6800 or so.



I do find it a bit odd he's raising here with 44 or some sort of 7Xs when he's in position and I can have AA. Pot would have been $3115 if he just calls and he's in position on river. So it will never check behind if he doesn't want it to. So, he is taking a risking folding out everything except for AA, AK, and some AdXd hands. And if he has 44 here, he should likely be flatting and hoping for a diamond and that I ran into backdoor flush.

But, he could also just be playing ABC and trying to get all the money in with 44 or 7x.

6d5d may also try to just take the pot down here.


Those were just some of my thoughts while I was tanking here.


So, what line do you like taking and why? And if you're calling this raise, what's your plan for river on various cards?

This is the second thread you’ve started where you have taken big hands (boats) out of your opponent’s range when they make a big bet.

This seems wrong and you should not be doing that.

Never took them out. Just gave thoughts that they are less likely given board texture, position, and action. In this case, in a vacuum, V should be raising 77 and 44 on flop. And calling on turn when he doesn't. 76 and 67 can raise turn, but very small part of range. Us having an A and 77 on board makes it less likely he has A7. So, yes, he has boats......but at a much smaller frequency than not.

A lot of live players—a LOT—will find excuses to slowplay flopped sets and then wake up on the turn. If they are getting you to de-weight those hands in their range by doing so, then you’re sort of justifying that idea.

Also, superimposing your own ideas for how your opponents “should” be playing their hands is a big leak.

LOLOL. This is just bad. By that logic, we can just say that -a LOT- of live players find excuses to spew too and should give them 100% weight for random air. That's just not how sound logical thinking plays out. We could also say that -a LOT- of live players find reasons to slow play hands they shouldn't in other spots. It's a circular argument that has no basic foundation in which to compare it to.

Making live reads is literally the same. If you "think" or "read" a player is playing a certain way, you are literally superimposing that idea on the player and can bet just as wrong as anything else.

We also literally have a good portion of the game solved and a baseline of what "should" happen. Hence knowing what is, and isn't an exploit or a deviation of "should." I'm not superimposing my personal ideas, I'm super imposing the partial solve/sims we have.....and then deciding if villain is likely deviating.


You're making a huge assumption that I'm superimposing some sort of emotion or feeling of how they should play. Just what the generally optimal line should be, and going from there.



But, moving on from terrible logic, what's your line here? Call/fold/raise?

I think I find a check at some point earlier. When a competent player cold calls my 3bet I am usually proceeding with caution.

Preflop and flop are standard. It's possible that V1 is prepared to float H with the BTN. I will sometimes float stronger players in position like this because they are capable of folding TPTK in these situations when reg-fish types won't. Perhaps V1's read on H is along these lines.

Turn: I'd rather not have AdQd and face this raise from V1. V's possible flush combos are obviously greatly reduced by the combos we block.

H is uncapped. So what are V1's raises here? A7s, maybe Ks7s. 6d5d and 44/77. This is like 7 combos. I think V's other 65s just want to call here with correct IO and paired board, or make tight fold.

It's possible that V1 just picked the wrong spot to float H here. Sometimes the most obvious and parsimonious explanation is the right one.

I don't see the point of raising, as it allows V to play perfectly. I can't find a fold, blocking his A7 and with a redraw against his 7x, the NFD against his FDs and ahead of his one SFD. So I'm calling getting 5-2 and creating a situation where I'm going to get 2-1 on the river if V jams and I'm unimproved, which is probably close to the right MDR price for my holding.

I probably check turn

Ap, turn is pretty close between folding and calling dont mind either. I probably call in game and fold non diamond rivers unless he goes super small.

You have been playing with him for 9 hours and I think the key bit of crucial information here is, how much cold calling of 3bets is he doing? How much cold 4 betting have you seen? Because his preflop ranges will be drastically different depending on thay answer. If he is cold calling a ton, he could have a fair amount of suited connectors with 7x and 44. If not, then AK is probably the most likely hand you are facing, especially if you haven't seen him do much/any cold 4betting.

If he hasn't done anything special in 9 hours, I find it unlikely we are facing a bluff. But if he is loose pre and capable of bluffing, then I guess 65s, especially 6d5d.

A hand like AQ could also be possible, but pretty unlikely.

In terms of direct odds, you would need 27.1% equity to call. If you give him exactly AKo, you have 29.9% equity. If you give him 87s, 76s, and AKo, then 27.1% equity. Add 6d5d and it's 32.2%. Add 44 and it's 27%. If it's just 87 and 76 then it's 22.7%. 87, 76, 44 and it's 16.7%.

If you call, I feel like it's going to be fairly low EV at best, less than $200. But you could be crushed and your EV is really negative. And you aren't sure if a Q on river would be good, not even sure if a diamond is good. And if he does have a hand you beat on the river it is hard to get paid being out of position.

Unless I am missing a piece of info on villain, I am not too worried about being exploited by this villain and I think we can fold.

I really want to put villain on exactly AK and say we have odds to call, but I feel like the chances that we are wrong about his range can really shift the EV to be very negative here. In the moment, I probably just figure I am too high in my range and call though.

An interesting question is, do we really want to bet the flop? Not sure how wide villains are, especially the cold caller. Between both villain's ranges I think you are facing AKo and sets in continue range. 6 combos of sets out there and 6 combos of AKo, 2 combos of AQs, 2 combos AJs, 2 combos ATs. Potentially some 7x and 4x, especially in the original raiser's range. Unless the are showing up with lower suited aces and AJo you're really not getting value from much. Also, multiway when we do bet flop, I like going smaller, like 25%.

I lean a bit towards checking flop and now checking turn as played.

Also, preflop I might go a bit bigger, 250-275 since we are so deep and don't want to give him as good odds to set mine or to let cold callers come along, but 225 isn't bad.

Trying to base calling on equity is a massive oversimplification and is wrong. The river action still to come means our current equity does not matter much—at least not that it directly determines whether we want to call.

I agree completely. It's a good data point, but clearly different from EV. Which is why I said we should consider the liklihood that our outs, particularly queen and also diamond simetimes may not be good, and we will have a hard time realizing implied odds when we win, because if a diamond or queen comes and we make the best hand, villain is likely not putting more money in the pot with too many worse hands.

But it’s actually worse than that from a RIO standpoint.

If we intend to call all rivers, then our required equity is much higher than our pot odds. If we intend to fold to a bet because we think that Villain bets a river range weighted to value, then we sometimes fold the best hand which means our equity still needs to be higher than our pot odds—and we don’t even know how much higher!

Well put!