agree with this,beside pot odds we are talking about 160bb more and hero is not used to this tack

This is an interesting spot and thread.

I can't quite figure V1's line on the river if he has AA unless he specifically knows he can frequently induce a raise from V2. Otherwise he's hemorrhaging value and I wouldn't expect the best reg in the game to lose value with the nuts. Which also leads me to heavily discount KK given his flop check this deep with V2 in the pot.

V1's bet size appears quite transparent and without any live read/timing tells, I don't see how this is anything but a fist pump call for hero. I would expect V1 to then fold his AK/Ax close to 95% of the time.

OP hasn't yet revealed the complete riv action, but if V1 did bet shove riv, his most likely holding should be KK. It's his most profitable hand on this flop for a number of reasons and checking a rb board with this relative position is a viable option given the number of betting hands available to either of his opponents.

I mean it's readily apparent that his range is wildly strong on the turn with the whale dynamic and truth is, once he checks flop, he is pretty much confined to ck-flatting turn as well to keep the whale in the pool.

Once he leads river, yeah, it's terrifying, but his range isnt fully defined to the point where folding 22 the first time is a sure thing given the number of worse hands for value/bway airball bad bluffs the whale might be raising. Sure that first decision is still close, but the second one really isn't.

All the superhero AK "bluffs" V1 has been assigned to potentially are cool in theory but given stacks and the fact he's readless, and hero bet bet FLATS the riv, his cronies would likely think his AK shove would be more irresponsible than alien. Hero CAN have AA here sometimes... I could even see V1 bet flatting KK. Then you know he's a beast.

I understand that the crazy villain is crazy but not stupid. Too much attention seems to be paid to v1. Also, If we are saying that this is a close call, if the crazy villain flatted the crushers 965 otr instead of shoving would we be raising here for value or just calling?

Thinking crazy villain could be bluffing here seems pretty crazy to me. I would assign crazy villains intentional bluffing % here a near 0% of the time. But, at the same time villain could just be drunk and misread the board or something of that nature.

What is everyone doing if v2 flatted v1's 1/2 pot river bet?

Raising.

To what sizing? Are you calling a shove by either player?

Please articulate specifically what you would do and why.

Put the fish all in, probably folding to a shove from V1. Could maybe get behind shoving yourself, but probably not. Are you suggesting not raising? Because that would be silly.

I am not suggesting anything. I do think the answer to the hypothetical, if v2 just called is important though. If it's an obvious raise for value, even though v1 most likely will not call with worse and just to stack off with v2, I am curious to see what everyone thinks because v1's range is still the same which seemed to be the focal point of our strategy on the river.

So you are raising to 2500 and folding if v1 shoves?

Deep spots mw with a good player and a drunk are so crazy sometimes. I don't know how convinced I am that it would be a slam dunk raising spot. I guess it depends how light the drunk would call it off. We don't have any history that would suggest that he would.

I do think raise/calling a v1 shove would be a huge mistake though.

If V2 just called V1s riv bet I would have raised almost exactly enough to put in V2 planning on folding to V1 shove. Not sure if that's too thin but I can def see getting called by worse by v2.

Also I agree with everyone who said we should consider that V2 likely has all combos of K7s, A7o/s and maybe K7o. But given his earlier play he definitely doesn't have just boats. He could have all AKo and total random trash

To those adamant that the UTG would never shove an inferior hand than ours in hopes we fold (never = less % than odds given to us), it would seem to me that given our pre flop action, the UTG can fairly comfortably discount AA/KK, and to a very slightly lesser extent, AK from our range. That means, the top of our range (both in his eyes and probably realistically as well) becomes 77 (1 combo), A7 (6 combos), and 22 (2 combos).

Being relegated to just 9 combos of high end hands, coupled with our opponent very accurately being able to remove the very top hands from our holding, gives him the luxury of making unpredictable (some may say, suicidal) plays such as shoving over our call with an inferior hand, precisely because it may just fold us out the necessary 16% of the time.

And now add in the times he may infer he actually has the best hand by deducing you are calling the drunk MP shove much lighter than one normally would, because you are capitalizing off the MPs perceived wider range given his disposition/size of pot/dynamic, and now the UTG may just leapfrog the % needed to go ahead and shove over the top in a profitable sense.

I cant really get on board with any of this. This type of leveling is why people have a hard time folding. I think because we are inactive and haven't shown villain much he wont be likely to do anything crazy here. I think its that simple. To say that villain could shove here with anything we beat b/c we overcalled knowing nothing about us sounds very wrong to me. Many players will not be capable of folding to a reshove by v1 and those that would are probably just shoving over v2 in the first place.

When V2 shoves he does show up with A7/K7 a fair bit. The consensus is not enough of the time to fold so the question becomes what does V1s range look like?

If V2 just calls, you have him beat 100% of the time and the spot gets way easier. Yeah V1s lead is still unsettling. But the whales liable to call it off with any Ax.

As for calling a potential V1 shove, yeah I think its a mistake. Could V1 jam AK knowing we're capped and trying to fold lower boats? Maybe, but he probably wont. I'm also not convinced he should anyway. If I'm in V1s shoes, I think I'm very often looking at a boat and I don't think trying to get the field of unknown reggish live players to fold a boat for 1.6 into 10 is going to be prudent.

Just a small correction,

I don't bet 77 otf, I have only 1 combo of A7 (Ah7h) as I fold A7o pre (or sometimes 3bet, but not call) and I have 3 combos of 22, not 2 combos. Both perceived and realistically IMO.

Well doesn't look like I'll get a consensus here. Close spot I guess. I thought the sheer amount of money was maybe clouding my judgement, hence the thread.

I tanked for what felt like an eternity and finally folded, V1 snap called and showed AA, V2 didn't show. Later V2 told me he had KK, but I don't really believe him as he would have showed for sure I think

I left shortly after this hand as I realized I had too much money on the table (which was really difficult cause it was a ****ing great game)

Villians initial decision to shove after we cold-call is actually shoving 3k in order to win 7.5k, so we have to fold ~30% of the time for his play to be even breakeven.

It's not just suicidal, its bad.

I understand the theory point your making "well if its correct for us to fold, then maybe that justifies V actually bluffing". But his odds of shoving are much worse than ours of calling, and additionally, despite the fact that it's correct for us to fold getting like 1:8 as you've witnessed from responses itt, many have concluded "you have to call it off" without providing a single logical reason -- thus, anybody in V's shoes has to assume that the majority of people will actually call.

AND ON TOP OF THAT, even after he hopes us to fold 30%+ of the time for 1.6k into 10k, he's still not guaranteed to have V2 beat.

The reason we're able to fold getting such great odds is because even though from V's perspective it's a spot where he could "never be bluffing thus its the perfect bluff", its still not attractive enough of a spot that he's able to exploit the fact that we can fold to a re-shove quite happily.

It's a nice thought experiment, but you're massively leveling yourself here. Don't assume people are doing **** this crazy until you have seen them do something similar before

OP, you say you left a good game (and it sounds like one for sure) because you thought you had too much money on the table. And if you have/had a limited BR for the stakes that's understandable.

But you can take heart from the way you thought through the decision - many would just say "I have a FH and I can't fold it". And it was close for sure - I wouldn't fault a decision to call the V2 shove hoping V1 was light. But whatever you were thinking at the time you made the right decision and saved at least 2k (and maybe more, depending on what you would have decided once V1 reshoved). Money saved to put into the next good game

I am surprised you left. You made a great fold that the majority of the forum/ other players wouldn't be making there. Confidence shouldve be through the roof.

Good fold

Good fold... like you said, the amount of money might've clouded ur judgment, would you have made the same fold if ur BR was 10x bigger?

pretty results oriented to say it was a good fold now that we know V had AA

Not saying it wasn't a good fold, but pretty sure there was no consensus -- it was a close-ish spot and OP decided to fold, maybe it was because he had a really good read or maybe its because he was playing too big and wasnt comfortable calling off 2.4k with bottom FH.

Yeah, I'd also add that given his absurd lie and the fact he probably would've shown a boat, you probably did have V2 beat.

I think V1 showing up here not nutted would be more surprising. I think the only range that contains hands that we can/cant beat is v2. Saying that because v2 didnt show he doesn't have a boat so we should be shoving/calling here seems just as toxic as far as results oriented thinking goes to me. I think v2 is weighted more to hands that we cant beat than can but that might be a stretch. Hard to say without being there.

Why did v1 show before v2? Is this hand real?

huh. Who the hell said that. Def wasnt me

I think I was referring to you and RosaParks. Seemed like you are implying that calling/raising may be better and that the fact villain turned out to be nutted here may just be a unicorn.

I don't think it is.

(when do i get take my victory lap?)

This the truth. Ask your self this. How would you play this hand if villain was scott seiver. And you haven't seen him get out of line up to this point. We still have V2 who has an unknown range. sometimes we're already drawing dead. These spots come up enough you should be learning how to call/fold with these dynamics.