5/10/20 NL (8 handed)

BTN Hero ($2.3k) effective stack
HJ Villain

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Pre: V opens to 50 , Hero 150 Q10cc, V calls

Flop ($330) Qd 4c Qh
X, 110, Call

Turn ($550) Jh
X, 300, xr700, call

River: ($1950) 9c
All in for around 1.4k, Hero??

No reads on villain? Seems like a fold if they are reasonable.

GTO just calls river 100% of the time so you gotta figure what kind of player you are up against.

GTO also likes a bigger flop bet but your size is in range.

I'd fold vs a random older guy and probably call vs a young guy or one of those euro players who look like they study.

His bluffs are AK, KT (KT got there), and mid range pocket pairs and ace high flush draws but could be wider than that and he has all the JJ, 44, AQ, KQ

All of his missed bluffs will have to jam this river for 100bb unless he plays really weak.

You can't be over folding trips for 100bb unless you know your beat - sometimes you can just tell especially if they are a weak player. Vs anyone capable who studies, I can't justify folding unless that player is a major nit.

I'm very surprised by this. You lose to any sensible queen. KT floats this flop? You don't beat a single value hand surely? You must be at the bottom of your range? The run out has pushed you down your range for one thing. Can you explain why gto calls? Also an surprised flop isn't a check as you have the board locked up. Because it's a 3b pot?


Not saying you are wrong but I just don't understand this call at all!!
Thanks

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Curious why hero 3B with QTs pre. Seems a bit too wide, and leads to spots like this, where we are either way ahead or way behind. We lose to better QX, straights, and boats. We only beat bluffs, and it's hard to see what his bluffs would be when he x/r's turn and jams river.

Do we have any reads on V? Is he capable of doing this with turned draws that brick out, or some random 1P?

There just doesn't seem to be much we're beating here.

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Probably just call preflop. Even if one of the blinds squeezed, we could still flat and play the hand in position (not mandatory, but still reasonable).

As played pre, flop seems fairly standard.

Our hand is not worth 3 streets of value, so I would check back turn and call a bet otr, or bet if V checks again.
As played, the c/r ott is quite worrying. All of V's value range has us crushed, and the only bluffs I can think of is a turned nfd, like AThh or A4hh, maybe KThh.
Against a tight V, I wouldn't mind folding right here actually.

As played turn, river reduced V's bluffs even further, since KThh made the straight.
Seems like a fold, unless V is a maniac.

Spoiler alert: Gto hates folding trips in 3bet pots. Gto also assumes human bluffs at equilibrium in these spots which is almost impossible unless human is some maniac from eastern europe.

i dont play this high but i dont see how betting turn can be correct vs anyone but a completely and utterly loose passive calling station.

As played I would fold riv. When you call turn it looks like you have qx and villlain doesn’t care

KTs will float a 1/3 pot sized flop bet most of the time. KTcc will call everytime as flush outs are rarely dirty.

If you aren't betting this turn what are you betting? Full houses only? Seems like a no brainer bet. The only reason to check would be if villain will blast - or if we want a strong hand in our checking range, which this doesn't seem like the best option because it can be outdrawn and don't want to give draws a free cards. People put a lot of pressure on you in aggressive games. You can't go around folding big hands or you're gonna get run over.

I like the 3bet here - we're in position, we can't dominate worse Qx or Tx, so this hand plays better this way then calling. GTO will always call here as they expect the villain to have a bluffing range and we're near the top of ours, but whether they do have a bluffing range is the question. Essentially you're hoping he turns a hand like TT into a bluff or floats the flop with say AKhh and gets aggressive. Certainly ambitious but live reads/player pool tendencies should be your decision not deciding in a vacuum

Call is a punt unless villain is quite aggressive and studied. Regs will probably find the river bluffs but their turn XR is too nutted (especially this sizing) they literally can't bluff enough unless they're very trappy with value.

The one thing that makes me want to call is that there's a good chance shove isn't their only size, but you need some finesse to not just shove bluffs so maybe you can snap fold vs ~$800 and call vs the jam.

This is a mandatory River call, we’re way too high up in our range to consider folding.

Our range doesn't really matter, you'll see a solver massively overfold in river spots where villain has a much stronger range.

QcTc here is just a bluff catcher with very good card removal.

I do wonder if specifically AhQx is the only Queen we can fold here. But even then, we’re beating some of his value range (surely V shoves KQ/QT/etc)!

I really do think with this runout and these stacks we can simply never fold trips.

If we have a read on V, and know he's capable of finding bluffs here, or betting worse for value, maybe I could find the call.

Admittedly, I don't play these stakes, but at 2/5, this is going to be a VERY under-bluffed spot.

V's most natural turn bluffs would be KThh and T9hh. I'm not sure what else he can bluff here, when he opens pre and hero 3B's, then hero c-bets the flop. He's only got two bluffs, and one of them came in on the river. For him to be bluffing, he'd have to be jamming T9hh, which seems pretty nuts, when he blocks none of hero's thick value, other than KThh.

What worse value does he have? We chop with one combo of QTss, and lose to every other QXs combo that isn't Q8s or worse. Is he really going to take this line with Q8 or worse QX? Is he opening Q8s or worse QX from the HJ, and calling a 3B with those hands?

Maybe he's not putting hero on Q9-QJ when hero 3B's pre, but hero could have AQ, KQ, and the 1 combo of QQ. Hero could also have JJ here.

V could also have JJ here, and we started deep enough for V to go set-mining with 44. Especially if he has JcJs, he knows hero can't have QJcc or QJss, so he's got the effective nuts, and I could see him playing it this way, when the turn gives him the boat but also adds the BDFD.

I'm not giving him AA/KK when he just flat calls our 3B pre from OOP, not at this stack depth. I also don't think he's playing AKhh this way, as a x/r semi-bluff on turn and jam on river.

So we lose to 3 combos of KTs, 3 combos of JJ, 3 combos of 44, 3 combos of AQ, 3 combos of KQ, 1 of QJss, and 1 of Q9ss. We chop with 1 combo of QTss. We beat 1 combo of Q8ss he probably never has here, and 1 combo of T9hh that he also probably never has here. If we want to give him AKhh, fine, but, yeah, I don't think he ever has that here.

17 combos we lose to, including 3-4 that are super-nutted (JJ and QJss), versus 2 or 3 combos we beat, but he probably never has, and another combo for a chop.

How is this a good call?

ETA - TT. He could have TT, maybe, but his line seems suicidal for TT.

In a 3-bet pot we have

A) Trips
B) That block the nut straight
C) And unblock busted flush draws.

There’s simply no folding. A) alone makes it a standard call—B & C make it a slam-dunk fist-pump call.

We have a V who

A) opened and flat called a 3B pre from OOP
B) called a c-bet on a high paired rainbow board
C) check-raised turn, and when called
D) jammed river for 70% pot.

Hero's hand is the 8th nuts. No one is fist-pumping to call a jam with the 8th nuts. There isn't a single value hand we can beat, and MAYBE one (suicidal) bluff in V's range.

It's definitely not a standard call, unless V is an absolute maniac savage.

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Beating value combos is way more important than card removal which is what AB & C come down to.

I ran a sim with the correct SPR and some QsTs already folds at equilibrium. Just removing either TT or AJs from OOP makes most AQ and all KQ/QT a losing call.

B and C aren't very applicable here, The T blocks bluffs and he still has AhQx/KhTh.

If you want to play very accurate poker you have to think about the actual ranges instead of "I have x hand strength" or "I block y value"

I think I'd have 0 bluff combos as OOP here

What can we expect villain to even have here? He'd have to call the flop with AK/AT and go crazy on the turn/river, even hands like KT/T8 got there. There's really no natural bluffs here - I think completely readless I would fold, but in the live game there might be info to call.

This is very well put and should be the main take away here.

We really need some read on V, but from my computer with no read, this is a very difficult fold, but it's a fold.

same

As played I'm folding. We called a c/r ott so therefore he most likely has at least AQ or he's full (he's not afraid of Qx).

Results????

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V binked JJ or has QJ