V in the hand is a late 40/mid 50s rec player. I might have seen him a few once at the 2/5 game, I don't recall anything and I don't think we have any history. Not sure what he perceives of my game but he knows I'm a young pro.

He sat down and min-bought for $500, waiting for his 2/5 seat to open open

These two HH's are the information I have to go off of

HH1: His 2nd hand at the table, he just sat down, btn straddle, bb limp, he makes it $65 utg, BB calls all else fold. BB checks AJ4r, V bets $110, bb calls. Turn bricks, bb checks, V bets $110 again and shows AQo

Not much information here, we do know he isn't afraid to stack off with TPGK

HH2: MP opens $45, V calls in HJ, btn calls, bb calls

Flop 432

BB checks, MP bets $145, V calls, BTN calls, BB calls

Turn ($740): T
BB checks, MP checks, V bets $200 into $740 with 400 behind.... (what?)
All 3 calls.

River($1540): 8
BB checks, MP checks, V bets $200 into 1.5k with 200 behind...
BTN calls, bb and MP fold.

V shows T7 and is good.


So we know V is playing relatively wide with suited cards, maybe other connected cards, and has no grasp of pot size or perceived ranges in certain spots

Before this hand V announced he was about to leave to go to his 2/5 seat, by the time the hand was over they had already filled the seat so he said he would stay until it opens up.

About 30 minutes goes by and I don't see V in many hands until....



OTTH

5/10, I straddle on the button. Stacks 2k eff

MP limps, V limps in LJ, Limper in HJ, I raise straddle to $120 with JJ

Mp folds, V looks over at me, pauses, then calls. HJ calls

Using lollivereads, I think V is pretty wide here. He hasn't played a hand in a while and just wanted to get involved, once I raised his mannerisms appeared to show his hand was weak but he didn't want to fold -- especially when it's my straddle and he can perceive I'm wide here and/or trying to steal

Flop: 653

V checks, HJ checks, I bet $270 into $380

V thinks for 15 seconds or so and check-raises to $650, he seems somewhat nervous and his hand fumbles a bit when he goes to put the chips in the middle.

V has 1.3k more behind. If I call there's $1675 in the middle

Once again I think this comes down heavily to lollivereads. This seemed like a classic checkraise from a fish who has showdown value but doesn't want to check/call, so he clicks it back and hopes to win right then and I fold my AQ or whatever

Do you ever consider a fold here? At the time I was never really considering it. As I tanked I was thinking whether to...

A) Jam the flop
B) Call flop, call jam on any turn card
C) Call flop, fold some turn cards

Initially my plan was to call flop and "correctly" fold some turn cards -- particularly I was going to fold on a 7, 4, or 2, as all of those complete the majority of his semi-bluffing range (76, 75, 54, 64, 44, A4)

This is also predicated on the assumption that V was definitely going to jam most turn cards if I flat flop instead of jamming. I was very confident V was going to jam turn because I couldn't imagine him making this fishy x/r and then simply check/folding turn -- ime when they corner themselves into a bad spot like this they say **** it and ship.

So, now my question becomes -- is V any less likely to check/raise pairs that don't contain a redraw (gutter/open ender) such as 88/77/86/A6/A5, and thus instead check/call with those?

Because if he is check/calling with those...
I should call flop and fold the turn cards listed above
If he's checkraising those as well...
I should either jam flop myself or call off basically any turn card to avoid getting free-rolled by scary turn cards

Both of these assumptions however, are still entirely dependent on how often V jams the majority of turns. If hes not then we should jam flop ourselves.

My opinion: V's who make this play feel backed into a corner and already have $800 invested, they're going to jam turn almost always. If this assumption is true, then we should call flop. I'm mostly conflicted on whether I should call any turn or fold on certain ones, as I'm not sure how V's would go about playing showdown value hands that don't have redraws.

Thoughts?

I would probably lean towards folding here actually. He is a 2-5 player who probably views this as alot of money. The board kinda smashes all over his range, and based on how passively and small he bet in the prior hands when he had fairly strong holdings, I really think hes got two pair+ here.

I'm usually the one who says to not nit up and fold all the time but this case seems to warrant it.

Calling is the worst option too btw. It's either Jam or fold and I think id fold

He had a $750 stack, called $45 pre with T7 suited, and bet $200 into 3 people (including the preflop raiser) twice with top pair. Granted he had the redraw, but he was in position, he could have checked back. Then he bet $200 again otr into 1.5k.

I agree that this may be a decent amount for him, but he doesnt seem to be scared of getting in stacks. We can't just give this guy 65/66/55/33 and completely ignore lollivereads "because he's a 2/5 player". The information seems to indicate he'll stick it in.

When you consider our range for raising the straddle big over 3 limpers then betting 2/3 psb on this flop, it likely contains a lot of air that we sigh and snapfold to the x/r (ATs+, AJo+, KQo)

If you're folding JJ here, what is your defending range?

Bet smaller otf
You could also x flop
Anyway as played u could prolly just fold flop- doubt villain is on the level to realiZe your never nutted here and be trying to exploit you
Villain is apmost certainly under bluffing here as well

I agree

I agree.

Also, in response to your LOL live reads, nervous hands / shaky hands is one of the most reliable reads in poker. It indicates a strong hand.

All of that said, if I bet flop, it wouldn't be to bet fold.

his hand was shaking? snap fold. this is a release of tension; he knows he has won.

I'd check flop.

Seems from all indications like a monster. What is this V limp calling then c/r the flop with, a bluff? No way, 65/set almost always, not worth stacking off. Its a sketchy sized bluff less than 10%.

His hands can be shaking for lots of reasons. He could be nervous cause it's a big game, he has a huge draw, or he was on bender the night before. I can make my hands shake pretty easily as a reverse tell. Like he may be this excited with 54ss.

I just stack the flop. Lol at everyone saying people who shottake are scared money. If anything they tend to felt too light to regs. Just look at how villain played T7 hand. Too many turn cards kill our action so I just pile.

Check flop?!! lol cmon

After more consideration I think we COULD call flop and see what happens as well.

Really alot of your play should depend on his xraise flop frequencies. Without more reads on that its hard to say what the best play is. So far it looks like he bets small with decent hands, but never large, which leads me to believe he is much stronger here than his previous holdings. Granted his flop raise is somewhat small, but perhaps not in his eyes.


Anyways without better reads on his xraise flop freq, and other postflop temdencies are, its hard to say what the best line is.

He's been here for maybe an hour and is blatantly pretty bad -- I have no idea what his exact x/r frequencies are. In my experience vs fish in this spot, a small checkraise means they have SDV but don't want to check-call. They want to end it right there. That's going off my assumption that he's wide pre ofc.


How can anybody suggest I check back this flop? That's absurd. Based on the T7 hand I assume he's limping/calling a wide range of suited semi-connected hands or unsuited connects/one-gapper hands. Way too many cards ott kill my action completely or just flat out give me the worst hand. I'm trying to get value.

As for "large bets vs small bets", I mean it could hold some weight if I had anywhere near a relevant sample (even watching him in 10 medium sized hands would be sufficient), but just watching him for the hour we played together I have to go off of whats given to me and interpret the information to the best of my ability. So I don't know if that means anything, but its much different in a multi-way pot in position with top pair (protecting his hand + value, despite the bets being completely inappropriate for the pot size -- that just shows his ignorance, not that he's scared, because he was obv never folding for the last $200-400)... as opposed to heads-up OOP vs the only pro at the table in an inflated pot.

If anything, top pair + flush draw is pretty nutted, so we can't assume small bets = medium strength, big bets = huge strength. Another factor being my initial bet size of $270, meaning that sets precedence for even bad players to understand you shouldn't be betting less than that amount, despite how unaware of pot size they are. As opposed to the other hand when he bet $200, likely because the bet on the previous street was $145, so $200 may have seemed appropriate to him as a bet.


Lastly, I suppose playing live and being able to read people in real time is difficult to translate directly into HH's/descriptions of V's, but I'll just say this: This did not look like the face of a man who "had it". Also, his hands weren't "shaking", I just said he fumbled the chips and looked nervous as he put it in -- he seemed unsure of what he was doing.

Tldr

1/2pot flop or less. Let em float this flop

Call call

If we assume V's CR range is the "strong one" OP described as what he saw as most likely - the three sets, 6-5, and the plausible semi bluffs (str8 draw w or w/o a pair) we are about a 60-40 dog. For those who favor jamming, do we think we have enough fold equity against the described villain?

We are in better shape if V's CR range is wider, adding in some overpairs. But all in all I think I'd call the CR, see what the turn brings and what V does.

I guess my reaction is biased in that I played a very similar hand a couple of weeks ago, against a rec V who seemed similar to the one described here. I raised with JJ on the button, bet a low connected flop, got check raised. I decided he did not have to have me beat, jammed it, got called, and lost to two pair