Chaos: two basic questions for you, if I may? Perhaps Amanaplan and everyone else might weigh in also. This is a very fascinating spot.

1) Is the Q ott a better range card for H or for V? Amanaplan obviously thinks this is a better range card for H and (perhaps whimsically) says H should jam rather than call down another street having to fade half the deck on the river.
2) Do you see any merit to re-raise/fold on the flop? I feel like H caps himself otf on a dynamic board and invites aggression ott. H ends up in the blender guessing at V's range as V blasts off.

It also doesn't even matter what our specific villain does in real life. We try to analyze hands based on the information provided by OP. If OP says "villain is a loose-passive fish" we treat him as a loose-passive fish. If OP says "villain is a strong pro" we treat him as a strong pro.

It's fair to question the description of a villain if there's stuff in the hand history that's inconsistent with said description. But I don't see anything in here that gives me reason to believe that.

1) I think the Q is overall a better range card for Hero. Both players can have KJss/KJcc (whether Hero chooses to defend KJcc OTF is debatable, but I think it’s probably an okay defend given the small 50% raise size Villain chose OTF). So this card is roughly neutral at the very top of the range. However, Hero can have AQ and Villain cannot. Which means Villain cannot cleanly triple barrel AT/A7 for this 75%/75% turn/river sizings. Of course the 6x OTR is a much better card for V, cause he can have all 98s and hero only has the spade combos.

2) I don’t know about the 3bet OTF. If we think Villain is polarized on the flop, it’s probably a WA/WB spot and I wouldn’t want to raise a bluff catcher. If V is clueless enough to raise worse Ax for value and call a 3bet, it could be fine to raise flop.

By the way, I just ran this spot in PIO (using 3k effective stacks, and HU of course), and it solves the cappedness problem by having IP mostly flat all sets. IP only 3bets 2% of the time, and calls 68% of the time facing the raise. The only value 3bets are sets, and IP 3bets AA/TT/77 just around 10% of the time.

Edit: as for range cards OTT:
(2-5h) V checks turn at 45% frequency
(6h) V checks 8%
(8h) V checks 0%
(9h) V checks 50%
(Jh) V checks 100%
(Qh) V checks 75%
(Kh) V checks 82%

So broadly speaking, high cards are good for Hero and low cards are good for Villain. 6x/8x are amazing for Villain.

Frequencies are identical for diamond suits obviously, and club suits are nearly the same (V checks slightly more often).

Spade completing cards are gonna cause V to slow down a lot. Example: On 2s, V checks 80%. On 9s, V checks 100%.

Yeah, that makes sense. I realize that the 3b is non-GTO but might be an exploit against aggro V.

So could you run the Q turn for us?

Ok this is a perfect example.

How do you know these 3 players are good pros? Do you talk about HH's with them and know they would raise all draws no matter if it's heads up or multiway, or other sapects of their game like did you ever see them 4bet/bluff with their whole 3betting range, etc.?

That was my point. "good pro" is too broad of a statement, especially when it comes from lower level (I didn't wanna say weaker) players, and I'm not ready and willing to gamble 250+ BB's on the fact that he "might be fluffing/drawing". I need more solid info/proof to make those decisions which I don't usually see in threads.

By the way, I included some information on Villain response to different cards OTT in an edit to my previous post.

As for the Qh turn, specifically, it's a good card for Hero. Villain checks 75% of the time overall, Villain always checks A7s/ATs and Villain checks sets about half the time.

I gave Villain 75% and 125% bet size options. When V does choose to bet it always uses the 75% size.

Hero response is below.

Basically, AK is indifferent, mixes between call/fold.

On the 6h river, Hero is indifferent with AK again and mixes between call/fold.

Idk, I can just tell. One is a young turkish guy who is chatting and very friendly with this German guy. The German guy was opening from everywhere on the table to 2.5x. I saw a showdown of the German guy using 2x overbet sizing on the river with a bluff that made a lot of sense from perspective of blockers (actually this hand was versus me and I bluffcatched him correctly). The other player was Brad Owen.

Thank you for running the sim!

To clarify, we have 0% turn raise here, right?

I wonder what villain does on the turn if the options are 33%/66%/100%? (no, you don't have to run that )

Do you know the name of the German guy and if he and the Turkish guy spoke German with each other?

It is actually an 18% turn raise here, and AKcc gets mixed between raise/call and fold.

I wonder if I included a smaller 33% option for Villain if AT would go into the small bet category, since the EV of this hand is very close between bet/check OTT using the 75/125 options -- I may try to run this later.

I am just guessing about ethnicities, but the German guy had an accent which might have been closer to Swiss. I am also guessing the other guy was turkish based on appearances. I guess he is broadly middle eastern. The german guy was also very tall. They were both playing at 10am on Sunday morning, so they were devoted.

The same way he can tell that some commenters are good and others who don't understand concepts above LLNLH: by their words and actions.

You know that line about if you can't spot the fish in the first 1/2 hour...this also applies to typecasting your table of opponents. If you've been playing long enough in the live streets, this comes natural and you can understand basic motives and abilities for each villain fairly quickly. There are obviously advanced spots such as this post that are much harder to assign merit due to limited experience, and that's what you should be focused on instead of semantics and trying to apply personal experience or this community's assumed "flawed" labeling of villains.

I don't know why you (and others) believe that I'm lower level or weak and I should move down in stakes based off of this post, but if the defining moment is not folding to the c/r on the flop, all I can say is there's a world out there that you haven't discovered and wish you best on your poker journey.

Woke up this morning after an overnight H.O.R.S.E. session (where my mixers at?!?!?) to some very fine work by the community. Logical discussion is always my intent with my stuff, but as many of you know, they often veer into outer space and beyond.

Cheers to all who didn't advocate a shove on the turn and see you guys in the next thread.

AT mixes on the river for V with small bet or check IIRC clubs mostly check and other suits bet small...it pretty much has the same conclusion zero EV on the turn and zero on the river so :shrug: , but realistically it depends on how V plays his draws/ if he ever gives up etc...the other interesting thing from the GTO Wiz sim is that donking (33%) is okay from the V?! at 19%...did you allow it to donk in your sim? not like its a big EV maker just fun to find odd parts of the game tree. also gave hero a 75% bet on the flop as the wiz like going polar starting on the flop...solver also disliked our club combo fwiw but really the only way I find call is if you think that V is too wide pre- and never letting his foot off the gas with draws

The SB flat is so strange, I really don’t know how to assign a range for that, so I had to make guesses — including 55-99 seems fair, but is TT included or not? How did you consider that, since I assume GTO Wiz plays SB as a 3bet or fold spot, no? (Of course we are also pretending this is a HU spot — in reality, the multi-way nature of the hand should strengthen/tighten ranges relative to multi-way).

No, I didn’t allow donking. I thought it wouldn’t have much of an effect since I was looking at the raise line on the flop. But I guess allowing turn donking might affect flop frequencies, so I probably should have run it . Tbh my computer isn’t quite fast enough to run so many bet options at 12 flop SPR, so I try to cut corners when possible.

By the way I ran the sim down to a higher degree of accuracy and the Turn raise option with AKcc shifted to negative EV. So, AKcc is 0EV as both a turn call and turn fold, and -$5 EV as a turn raise (the computer doesn’t like amanaplan’s suggestion, but it doesn’t dislike it by such a wide margin). On the river, AKcc is again indifferent between call/raise. I actually found that AKhh/AKdd are pure folds on the river — somehow my sim prefers to have the clubs.

Villain on the turn can bet at the medium ( 75% or 66%) sizing with AT, but not A7. Allowing smaller 33% sizing OTT doesn’t matter — that sizing never gets used on the Qh card. Interestingly, that small block sizing does get used a lot on spade turns, and T/7 turns.

And this is why TTHRIC.

Locked.