I’ve been sitting down for about an hour. Villain has seen me get stacked by another tag pro (I did not show) when I ran into a set. Just doubled (and am even) after I over bet pot on the river with ak (top top) after checking flop.
Main villain (bb) is a British or Australian tag pro. Only seen one hand that he has shown down when he got it all in preflop with kk.
Otth 8 handed
Tag pro open utg to 60. I call in mp with KQcc. Button calls and main villain calls in bb. (Pot 260 - after rake)
Flop QhJc3h
Checks to me, I bet 120
Folds to villain who check raises to 450. Utg folds and I call. (Pot 1160)
note that he x/r with range disadvantage since we have all the sets and top 2 and he only has bottom set and top 2. we might have an AQ advantage too. if u can find out someones range to x/r with disadvantage u can play better against them in future
edit: the flop peel is fine with all those backdoors and the possibility he shuts down
Pretty easy call otf and ott what’s the river
We unblock the hearts and bunch of t9
And also block his value pretty hard so not much to do besides call turn and see what goes down otr
Pretty easy call otf and ott what’s the river
We unblock the hearts and bunch of t9
And also block his value pretty hard so not much to do besides call turn and see what goes down otr
Interesting approach to thinking about the spot.
I find that when people raise with range disadvantage it’s because they have value.
Do u think that when people raise with range disadvantage it’s because they’re bluffing?
edit: the flop peel is fine with all those backdoors and the possibility he shuts down[/QUOTE]
This was my thought when I called the flop but we missed our backdoor stuff, he didn’t shut down and the draws didn’t come in...
I ended up folding.
After I folded though, I thought about it more and thought since he really only has Qj suited and 33 that is ahead of me that maybe I should have called and evaluated as lolposting suggested...
What cards would you call on the river with a peel?
I'd 3b pre almost always here, probably calling flop and sigh folding turn.
So, 3b pre to get position and the betting lead. It's EP vs MP against a good player @150bb deep. We should be fairly linear in this spot. Our hand is quite strong as well and blocks KK/QQ/AK/AQ.
V's flop line is a bit peculiar because we'd expect the PFR to c-bet, but I'd range him to have nuttish hands and powerful draws. He's got 4 combos of sets here and 2 combo of top 2. He could also have 2 OE straight+flush draws. His NFDs also have midpair or a gutter in them. I think his 9 combos of overpairs don't take this line, but maybe he's got 1 total of those as well. So, if we give him that range, we probably have ~40% equity. We should be a bit cautious because him going for the x/r instead of c-bet probably skews him towards value. We are getting a price however, so I think folding flop is way too weak needing 28% equity from the direct odds offered.
I can certainly see an argument for calling the turn, but that comes down to how often he continues barreling his bluffs. If we skew him towards value because of the flop line and consider that some of his flop semi-bluffs might x turn and that a river jam comes at some frequency, I have no problems letting this go.
I'd 3b pre almost always here, probably calling flop and sigh folding turn.
So, 3b pre to get position and the betting lead. It's EP vs MP against a good player @150bb deep. We should be fairly linear in this spot. Our hand is quite strong as well and blocks KK/QQ/AK/AQ.
V's flop line is a bit peculiar because we'd expect the PFR to c-bet, but I'd range him to have nuttish hands and powerful draws. He's got 4 combos of sets here and 2 combo of top 2. He could also have 2 OE straight+flush draws. His NFDs also have midpair or a gutter in them. I think his 9 combos of overpairs don't take this line, but maybe he's got 1 total of those as well. So, if we give him that range, we probably have ~40% equity. We should be a bit cautious because him going for the x/r instead of c-bet probably skews him towards value. We are getting a price however, so I think folding flop is way too weak needing 28% equity from the direct odds offered.
I can certainly see an argument for calling the turn, but that comes down to how often he continues barreling his bluffs. If we skew him towards value because of the flop line and consider that some of his flop semi-bluffs might x turn and that a river jam comes at some frequency, I have no problems letting this go.
Looks like quantum surfer got a little confused given my poor wording on this thread. There are two tag pro villains in this hand and the main villain is in the blind and is not utg
Pretty easy call otf and ott what’s the river
We unblock the hearts and bunch of t9
And also block his value pretty hard so not much to do besides call turn and see what goes down otr
I dont disagree but is that really all the info we're gonna use? Whatever we dont block we just assume he has?
Once you factor in the pot being multiway and think about conditional probability, blockers dont really mean jack **** here, as in many other cases as well. No TAG pro who's not high or bored out of his mind is defending T9o/etc and also check raising them at a high freq here multiway. Just because he has few values of combos to begin with doesnt mean that his raising range isnt value saturated (ie conditional probability)
Flop peel isnt horrible but most likely losing some money.
Update: I ended up asking the pro what he had several days later and he said he had bottom set (if you believe him which I kind of do). Thanks again for everyone’s thoughts.
call flop
fold turn
his bet size turn makes me think he is on pure value.
Also x/r this flop is very value oriented.
Don't think he is raising 9 10 here unless he has hearts or bd fd
He can have Jx hearts also that you still beat flop but his polarized sizing turn doesnt make sense to bet jxheart like that.
its very often 2 pairs and he has more combos that what was said
he will have some AQ/Q3/J3 suited also for value .
Maybe fold flop is fine vs his range in a pure exploitative strategy when he is supposed to be 75% value here .
maybe its same ev between folding and calling on his x/r.
