Totally agree. People get caught up in the absolute value of their hand without regard to the action. The 2nd nuts in this spot is nothing to celebrate. When he bets over pot on the river that action alone takes all two pairs and sets out of his range. He would probably bet 80-100 and fold to a raise.

I actually think he checked the turn for pot control. I doubt he would try to check raise sets or two pairs on this turn and risk giving a free card. I think check raising that turn in his spot is bad because he is going to be folding out all worse hands.

My problem with this is that a described "solid" 5/10 player is typically rarely as solid as they seem. The true wizards/crushers that never (or very rarely) make a significant mistake in the rooms I frequent I can literally count on one hand. On the other hand I could almost fill a bus with generally solid players who somewhat regularly take bizarre lines/talk themselves into paying off with relatively strong but usually second best hands like bottom set/medium sized flush etc. There have been WAY TOO MANY spots like this where I over rate how good/solid someone is and end up nit rolling them only to see something like JTdd (that I could have at least tried to get some value out of) or some random dumb bluff w/ no SDV. Frequently playing in standard nitty FR games will do this to you. There are regular stretches I've been on it where it seems like someone always has the absolute nuts in spots like this, even if their true range is wider.

Apologies if this guy really is as solid as described massivetilt99 then the above may not apply. Just something I notice fairly regularly in villain descriptions here and from poker acquaintances. Seems like almost everyone in mid-stakes + games is painted with the "solid" or "***** nit" brush these days, even if they have regular leaks in their game.

Anyways, point being, in your average 5/10 NL line up I think you should still regularly consider the "lol live poker" aspect in these spots vs. your typical live TAG reg types that you don't have solidified reads on. Live FR (esp at a relatively small capped game like this) is just so painfully slow when played regularly that all but the most robotic/emotionally resilient players are prone to doing weird or not good/"Standard" things to try to manufacture pots and wins. And as long as that is the case I'm going to error towards going for value in spots like this vs. most until they prove to me that I can't get it/they are too good to show up with worse. Besides, we are talking about a min-raise/raise to 550 max here and fold to a raise, not a shove. How many players would actually fold a decent flush for 200$ more here if they had it? I might get a nit roll, but I'm still expecting an eventual spite call from the vast majority of players here, even decent winners.



Villain not barreling the turn then potting the river definitly is somewhat concerning since I would expect most good regs to barrel this turn with no-show down flush draws, but I can't completely just write those hands off based on generalizations. I think completely writing off bluffs is a mistake as well. Your hand looks very much like Kx, so I would think a decent hand reader would at least consider turning some hands into bluffs to try and move you off it on the river (and their c-betting range on this flop should include a lot of trash, so it's tempting spot). Obviously you aren't getting called by his bluffs when you raise, but it is much better for your image/future meta to raise and not have to show down your hand if he has a bluff, as opposed to nit rolling him with the second nuts in a small pot, and thus giving an image to him and other observant players in the game you might not necessarily want.

Overall though, could very well be that I am spewing way too much money to robo-nits who only have the nuts in this spot by raising, but I just don't think this is the case vs. an average reg in a regular wealthy market 5/10 game.

I will say though, if I ever come to the realization that I shouldn't be going for value here vs. the average 5/10 capped reg you won't see me anywhere near the tables moving forward. I think I'd rather bathe in acid than regularly play in live lineups where I should be considering folding over raising here. So don't spoil the fun for me if that is the reality.







TLDR cliffs: I am a whale that probably over values strong but likely second best hands (I'll blame my 6-max background), and chronically under estimates the skill of the average villain.

^^this post is gold

Anybody proclaiming that this is a fistpump raise/gii rebuy has absolutely no sense of meta-game, exploitative play, and any grasp on live poker.

I think we're all competent enough to understand that even "solid players" can be value a lot of worse hands here, and for a raise to $550 its hard for him to fold really any of his value hands -- so we should be raising. IF, he is somehow folding everything that isn't the nuts, then we should simply be bluff-raising here always.

Please keep in mind that the bet on the turn was to $50, and now V is potting the river for $200.

So when we raise to $550 and V decides to shovel in another $600 for 1.2k total after what was previously a small pot, this is the nuts 90%+ of the time, we don't have nearly the odds to torch the extra 60bb.

This is a very clear raise/fold. Folding river is bad, flatting is bad, raising to get it in is bad.

But they really can't. The problem is that you're not thinking about Hero's perceived range once he checks the turn, and where that stands relative to Villain's flop bluffing range.

Okay the word "a lot" is an exaggeration, but he should have sets and AK, which along with smaller flush combos suffices as enough to warrant a raise.

I think anyway, not 100%.
Somebody post an actual range, im going to bed.

well yea when you play top pair and flush draw this way so there's like 3 dollars in the pot it makes it kinda hard to win a big pot when you're ahead here.

lol@fold the river when he bets. funniest thing i've heard in a while.

this may be correct but if it's correct to not raise the river bc all worse hands fold

1)you should bluff raise this river a ton
2)stop playing so ****ing tight that there's no money in the pot before the river this hand and that you can't get called by worse.
3)it's also odd to play this hand to a raise from a solid player but then be scared when you hit

When he pots the river AK/set makes sense as well, he could easily whiffed a c/r on the turn and is now b/f the river himself. Also JTdd is the obv hand V would play like this.

If V leads the flop and checks the turn to me I bet Kxdd. Most players would check AQ/AJ on the turn but lots of hands are giving up. Might not be worth it though, could be in a tough spot IF he c/r the turn.

Agree that there is some extrinsic value in not showing down K-hi flush if V is air-balling or has smaller flush.

I agree about most of what you say about raising river in this spot but the reason i choose to flat river is based on the fact that the villain checked the thrn which to me looks more like an Ace with a flusb draw.. Possibly a hand like Ad10d or that is playing deceptively and or pot controlling.. If he were not to have the nut flush draw but hands like QdTd JdTd or other types of diamonds i would expect him to be betting the turn with these hands so he needs to bet the turn to win the pot since he has no showdown and the ace is a good card to rep in this spot.. Also the slight overbet on the river makes me even feel more so about him being weighted towards nuts.. I dont mind raising river because its not like we have a ton of info at this point and we are holding second nuts and also he could be calling a raise with worse but if we get raised we have to fold.. But like i said his line to me seems much more weighted towards nuts given his line and texture of this runout.

Read Fly's post. And then read it again.

fold pre

i just shove river myself, if he has it laugh and move on - this is why we have a bankroll

flatting river is pretty bad/nitty/results oriented, he has so much more in his range, if i'm villain i even play A6s/66 this same way, not to mention all my failed check/raises from the turn

also, if i raise to $550/600, i'm prob folding to a shove.

3b rivers in live games are nuts 95+% of the time (esp unpaired boards where villains can't be reshoving underboats or 2nd-nut boats)

I don't trust your ability to accommodate selection bias. With your particular hand, you will only ever see showdowns that confirm your read that non-Ace of diamonds hands will bet, since the nuts and nutblocker bluffs will always 3-bet. Even worse, with the nuts or nutblocker, you will only witness opponents that confirm your read. (I assume your read mostly comes from these players calling other people, most of whom are correctly only raising with the Ace of diamonds, or that you've been polarized to the Ace of diamonds up till now and are considering deviation.) By the rules of poker, every time you are in this situation and hold the Ace of diamonds it will be versus a player who is playing an incorrect range. Hence the 'I could almost fill a bus' phenomenon. The other busful of good players never bet in the first place, so when you don't have the Ace, how do you know how big this bus is?

(As goes without saying, the mere fact that you see a player bet with JTdd does nothing to bolster your argument; you must see them bet and then call with it.)

The situation is less severe for non-flush spots, but the same dangers remain.

Fold pre, flop and turn fine as played, shove river or raise small call off. BTW someone who never "gets out of line" is unlikely to be very good, solid or whatever.

Did he raise his eyebrows when A came on turn? If so I'd give him credit for having the nut flush and consider folding river. Usually that is a pretty spot on tell