400nl set on a monotone board in reraised pot - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

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400nl set on a monotone board in reraised pot

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10-23-2008 , 10:32 PM

Rampage_Jackson

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 2,772

Nothing remarkable about villain, assume a normal range. Is it better to cr or lead this flop and why? Let's assume we are always looking to get it in on this flop.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4 BB (9 handed) Hand History converter Courtesy of PokerZion.com

UTG ($246.50)
Hero ($432)
MP1 ($422.50)
MP2 ($681.90)
MP3 ($117.30)
CO ($517)
Button ($400)
SB ($457)
BB ($66)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with T

, T

.
1 fold, Hero raises to $12, MP1 raises to $32, 6 folds, Hero calls $20.

Flop: ($70) 2

, A

, T

(2 players)
Hero?

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10-23-2008 , 11:37 PM

WireySpinde11

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 606

I bet out, so you charge Ks and AxJs and such to draw. A lot of hands will check behind here, and lots of turns hurt you/kill your action. I generally like to play my sets fast on scary boards.

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10-23-2008 , 11:49 PM

Rampage_Jackson

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Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 2,772

Do you bet pot or 3/4ths of pot (assuming we bet out)?

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10-24-2008 , 12:12 AM

soah

Unexpected

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 61,667

I probably checkraise huge. seems like people get ******ed on monotone boards in reraised pots and get it in all the time with Ax where x is not a spade or any big pocket pair with a spade

if he checks behind then he has a big spade and you can play accordingly

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10-24-2008 , 12:14 AM

WireySpinde11

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 606

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rampage_Jackson

Do you bet pot or 3/4ths of pot (assuming we bet out)?

Pot

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10-24-2008 , 12:20 AM

Rampage_Jackson

veteran

Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 2,772

Quote:

Originally Posted by soah

This was my thinking too. I was thinking since the board is scary he will be cbetting a decent amount with a lot of his holdings. If I check raise allin or very large it often looks like I have the draw... either he will include the king of spades in my range or he will have it himself sometimes. There are not that many made flushes I would show up with here too.

I definitely think the lead in for pot has some merit though which is why I posted the hand, and don't necessarily think it is wrong.

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10-24-2008 , 12:22 AM

Rampage_Jackson

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Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 2,772

Quote:

Originally Posted by WireySpinde11

I bet out, so you charge Ks and AxJs and such to draw. A lot of hands will check behind here, and lots of turns hurt you/kill your action. I generally like to play my sets fast on scary boards.

This is a pretty concise and good argument for leading.

... I'm having difficulty determining which line is higher EV without digging down into the numbers and making a lot of assumptions on ranges and his action with certain hands. Again, no reads though.

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10-24-2008 , 01:01 AM

Ricky1231

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 6,663

Donking is fine w/ no reads imo.

Most of his ace x with a spade hands will try to pump the pot up anyways, he'll flat pairs w/ a spade that he would normally check back and he may spazz out drawing dead w/ aX no spade. I think by donking you can also almost always get 3 streets (when he doesn't raise flop) when he has Ax and the board runs out good.

I also don't mind the check-raise big line. It's pretty hard to misplay this hand unless you're a ****** imo.

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10-24-2008 , 04:25 PM

LSP16

adept

Join Date: May 2007 Posts: 752

Vilain PF 3 bet is very weak... I'll Checkraise here... if he check back bet pot any non-spade turn

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10-24-2008 , 07:19 PM

#10

Rampage_Jackson

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Join Date: Aug 2007 Posts: 2,772

Does anybody think one line versus the other has a sizable difference in expected value?

Or maybe both lines have enough pros/cons that the difference in EV is very minor?

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10-24-2008 , 09:11 PM

#11

soah

Unexpected

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 61,667

I don't think he raises very often when you lead

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10-24-2008 , 09:27 PM

#12

Ricky1231

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 6,663

Quote:

Originally Posted by soah

I don't think he raises very often when you lead

By that token then how often does he bet flop and go all the way?

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10-24-2008 , 10:07 PM

#13

Ricky1231

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 6,663

Before I get flamed I'll mention that I don't think either line is significantly more +ev than the other.

obv almost every hand villain bets flop with he will commit on when he gets check-raised. I also think that we're not giving up much by missing out on some cbet or something when we lead.

What I was getting at is that the lead flop line allows us to get 3 streets against a lot of his hands that may check back flop or turn for pot control or deception (on early streets obv) or w/e. I still think we get at least a call on flop and turn from any overpair with a spade.

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10-25-2008 , 03:33 AM

#14

WireySpinde11

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 606

Quote:

Originally Posted by Rampage_Jackson

Does anybody think one line versus the other has a sizable difference in expected value?

Or maybe both lines have enough pros/cons that the difference in EV is very minor?

I don't think so. They are probably pretty close in value. Leading charges draws, but folds out some bluffs he would make if you checked. Both get it in vs big hands. I like leading, but if someone said they were going to do something like lead 60% and c/r 40%, I wouldn't have anything bad to say about it.

Another reason I like the lead is that this a (small) 3 bet pot, which increases the chance AK gets spazzy vs a lead out, thinking you have a spade. But then again, that spazziness is likely if you c/r as well.

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10-25-2008 , 04:41 PM

#15

RosaParks

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Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 2,887

I think it's generally a lot easier to balance a c/ring range than a donking range. But in terms of actual value they have to be pretty close.

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10-27-2008 , 06:00 PM

#16

ChipRick

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 4,185

Quote:

Originally Posted by soah

this

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10-27-2008 , 06:48 PM

#17

lionking130

adept

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 823

note unrelated to this;
well sized leading out is more +ev line in mw pot i thnk, esp with ppl who call a lot

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