Villain is a fairly bad reg playing 17/12 AFq 40 over 4k hands.

I call pre as initial raiser was huge fish and with the bad reg in SB I think it's fairly +EV.

I think I took a fairly standard line the whole way and my bet sizing is pretty good but I get to the river and am completely lost.

He could easily be pot controlling a small FH and he could also turn his missed draw into a bluff.

Checking behind feels uber weak. Betting small and folding feels exploitable. Betting big and folding feels even worse. Overshoving and turning my hand into a bluff is what allthecheese will want me to do. I don't really see what worse hand can make a call here other than 89hh or A9hh.

There's $428.50 left in his stack.

Thoughts?

Full Tilt Poker $400.00 No Limit Hold'em - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BB: $427.80
UTG: $486.00
UTG+1: $414.00
UTG+2: $891.00
MP1: $377.60
MP2: $570.50
CO: $1011.45
Hero (BTN): $731.20
SB: $624.50

Pre Flop: ($6.00) Hero is BTN with 8 6
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to $12, 4 folds, Hero calls $12, SB calls $10, 1 fold

Flop: ($40.00) T 7 2 (3 players)
SB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $24.00, SB calls $24, UTG+1 folds

Turn: ($88.00) 9 (2 players)
SB bets $56.00, Hero raises to $160, SB calls $104

River: ($408.00) 9 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero ???

Hmmm indeed

I think its a close spot actually. Id probably bet to get value from 98.

I think bet 150 fold to jam is best. Yeh its exploitable but that only matters if people actually exploit it.

i think against a "bad reg" there's practically no difference between 150 and jamming.

i think most combos of 98 are checking turn. but he can also maybe hero with xTh/x9h.

maybe a couple set combos either 3bet turn or lead river..

meh i think in the moment i shove but it's probably a check

i think he probably folds/has us beat often enough that a b/f and pot shove are prob bad.

vote hero chk

edit: he can't really have the 9hXh

I dont think you can b/f here given stacks/pot. Frankly, I find it hard to put him on a hand that beats you that would take the line he did, so I shove for value.

I think your turn raise is too small.

Raise more on the turn so you can shove non-heart rivers imo

Ya I mean your turn raise just doesn't look like it can ever be a bluff. You are basically hoping that your hand looks like an overpair that is willing to fold to a shove, is what it looks like to me, but I think it's optimistic to think that villain will bluff-shove here when you don't really seem to rep a bluff. I guess you're trying to next-level him, but I think you're better off making it like $200