400NL- Pair + combo draw bricks turn vs fish - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

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400NL- Pair + combo draw bricks turn vs fish

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12-12-2008 , 08:26 PM

themobfather

grinder

Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 499

Villian is 33/12/2 over ~100 hands. He was mostly limp/calling but was starting to raise a decent amount. No other reads.

Party Poker $400.00 No Limit Hold'em - 8 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

UTG: $826.00
UTG+1: $1220.80
MP1: $867.30
MP2: $652.30
CO: $283.50
Hero (BTN): $478.90
SB: $403.00
BB: $400.00

Pre Flop: ($6.00) Hero is BTN with 8

3 folds, MP2 raises to $14, CO calls $14, Hero calls $14, 1 fold, BB calls $10

Flop: ($58.00) 7

(4 players)
BB checks, MP2 checks, CO bets $40.00, Hero raises to $118, BB folds, MP2 calls $118, CO folds

Turn: ($334.00) Q

(2 players)
MP2 checks, Hero?

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12-12-2008 , 09:16 PM

WireySpinde11

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 606

If his WTSD is high, i'd check. If there's a decent chance he'd fold, I'd bet. Depends on the fish, really. The fact you have a pair makes me more inclined to bet, as you're ahead of his draws.

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12-13-2008 , 12:43 AM

Ricky1231

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 6,663

there are a bunch of worse draws/draws your pair is ahead of atm in his range fwiw

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12-13-2008 , 02:12 AM

DoubleFly

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 5,983

You have less than a psb left, so you're getting 2+ to 1 to bet at it. You have as many as 17 outs if you are behind to an overpr (which is close to the odds needed), so I think I just get it in. You have some scenarios where you could have fewer outs. But considering your line looks strong and could get some fold equity (I'm assuming he's not a calling station), and most importantly, you alluded to the fact that he may have stopped limping and expanded his pfr range (so he could be much weaker than the usual pfr 12 person from MP2). If he had one of the danger hands like a set, he probably would have shoved the turn.

Last edited by DoubleFly; 12-13-2008 at 02:34 AM.

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12-13-2008 , 04:02 AM

soah

Unexpected

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 61,667

shipping might be best but it's hard to go wrong taking a free card instead

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12-13-2008 , 06:45 AM

jmmj05

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 542

easy shove

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12-13-2008 , 07:04 AM

Moke

journeyman

Join Date: Sep 2008 Posts: 244

If he's a calling station, check it back. If he's not and you may have equity fold, push in.

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12-13-2008 , 06:16 PM

ghostbeef

grinder

Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 508

Board: 6s 9s 7d
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 76.242% 75.14% 01.10% 71412 1048.00 { 8s7s }
Hand 1: 23.758% 22.66% 01.10% 21532 1048.00 { 22+, AQs+, AQo+ }

I realize villians range could be larger here, but considering their solid PFR%, EP raise preflop, and strong EP cbet, I think the above is reasonable. I'd actually discount AQ (except AsQs) and [22-88].

Regardless, ez-shove on a weird donk, grit your teeth when he flips JJ.

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12-13-2008 , 08:08 PM

themobfather

grinder

Join Date: Dec 2004 Posts: 499

Quote:

Originally Posted by ghostbeef

so you are saying that his range for check/coldcalling this flop includes 22-55 and AKo?

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12-13-2008 , 08:34 PM

#10

soah

Unexpected

Join Date: Jun 2004 Posts: 61,667

meh I assumed CO was the one who called the raise

now I'm firmly in the free card camp

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12-13-2008 , 11:05 PM

#11

DoubleFly

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Jun 2008 Posts: 5,983

Sorry. I missed that too (thot CO called). So now, I'm not sure you have much fold equity (unless you think he does this with a draw), so free card is probably better.

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12-14-2008 , 02:24 AM

#12

jmmj05

grinder

Join Date: Aug 2008 Posts: 542

I don't think he ever cold calls with a set or overpair, then again he is a fish...

I think almost his entire range is flush draws.

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12-14-2008 , 12:56 PM

#13

Ricky1231

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2007 Posts: 6,663

shove for value

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