Villain sat down 5 hands prior, so no reads.

No-Limit Hold'em, $4.00 BB (9 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (MP1) ($424)
MP2 ($431)
MP3 ($460.10)
CO ($394)
Button ($508.80)
SB ($270)
BB ($194)
UTG ($400)
UTG+1 ($763.80)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with J, J
2 folds, Hero raises $14, MP2 calls $14, 1 fold, CO calls $14, Button calls $14, 2 folds

Flop: ($62) 4, 10, 4 (4 players)
Hero bets $56, MP2 calls $56, 2 folds

Turn: ($174) 7 (2 players)
Hero bets $124, MP2 raises $248, Hero ?

Is it a push or a fold here? Some analysis I've done (assume he always calls for now):

Equity I need to have for a push/call: 26.1% (2.83 to 1)

Push equity vs flush, trips n boats (A4s, TT, 77, 45s, All d SCs, All Axd): 5%

Push equity if he also raises/calls here with any pr/FD Broadway cards (Add AdT, KdT, QdT, JdT): 36%

Wow, that's one hell of a swing. If goes from a trivially easy fold to a trivially easy push if he'd bet/call with these Pr+FD broadway hands.

The breakeven point is QdT: if he'd bet call this hand, it's a push. If he'd only bet/call here with monsters and Ad T and Kd T, its a fold.

As players will often fold ATo-QTo in these spots (MP2), I'm leaning to a fold here. Do you agree? Disagree? And why?

Assume he has either has a monster here (A4s, 54s, TT, 77, All SC and Axs flushes) and we only have 5% equity when called, or he's on a bluff that will fold.

We can push here, and as long as he folds more than once every 3.5 times (22.5%) we show a profit even with 5% equity when called!

once: he folds, we win $546 in pot.
2.5 times: we lose 95% of $230 we pushed, -$546.

That blows my mind. I'm not sure he'd be floating often enough in this particular spot being multi way, but there's tons of future applications for this notion. He could also be turning a middle PP into a bluff.

Are my math, assumptions right here?

Wtf, so much analysis for an easy fold. Just think of the action.

I would be check/folding this turn all day.

Yeah, suicide bluffs are really profitable, but you need typically history to pull it off profitably + this isn't the way to get into those spots.

ur like never good here and ur flop bet is too big imo.. its super multiway pot and ur pair is good like never from my experience. paired board on flop make it little less likely but still i dont stack here.i would have to have super reason to.

also u can remove alot of semiblufs from his range on that board. it dont make sense for him to have big diamond here. with except 4 QdQx,AdTxo... however usually thers lot more semibluffing hands but not here.

Heh, but think how much it improves my game!

Yeah, it's a pretty clear fold, and that's what I did, but I wanted to really explore it and see if i was missing anything.