Villain is solid reg, 17/14/2. CBets 65%, I decided to float flop.

I figured the flop call represented a pr with a diamond.

No-Limit Hold'em, $4.00 BB (9 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($431.90)
SB ($191)
BB ($206.70)
UTG ($746.30)
UTG+1 ($416.50)
MP1 ($80)
MP2 ($406.70)
MP3 ($394)
Hero (CO) ($462.50)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A, J
4 folds, MP3 raises $12, Hero calls $12, 3 folds

Flop: ($30) K, 2, K (2 players)
MP3 bets $20, Hero calls $20

Turn: ($70) 6 (2 players)
MP3 checks, Hero bets $55, MP3 calls $55

River: ($180) 8 (2 players)
MP3 checks, [color=#CC3333]Hero bets $140

Meh. He can't beat much here with AA/QQ/JJ, actually nothing but a bluff. But that doesn't mean he'll fold. I probably just give up.

This is really awkward. I don't think hes folding the river if hes calling the turn. The 8 didn't really change much. I don't think hes folding JJ+

Don't you think his range is much wider here than JJ+ though?

What are your stats, or at least how should villain view you? Your preflop numbers are important in determining his opinion of your range on the flop and your showdown stats (wtsd%, w$sd%) may impact his river decision.

I would expect a call a decent percent of the time after he calls the turn. You could have flatted the flop with a pretty wide range and the turn is a great card for you to bluff. River doesn't change much and its still a good spot to fire another barrel if you are indeed bluffing. I think you get calls out of 7s or better, depending on how he views you (I'd make that call against anyone that struck me as particularly aggro (in either a good or bad way)). Once he calls the turn, what part of his range are you expecting him to fold on the river?

Also, I don't really like the river bet size, unless you expect him to recognize that a your big river bets are typically value bets. Something closer to half pot is probably better from an EV standpoint simply b/c you lose less when you're called (ldo), and as stated earlier, I think you're getting called a decent amount of the time regardless of bet size. I just don't see enough of his turn calling range folding to warrant this sized river bluff.

My stats are 17/11/2.8. WTSD 25%.

If he c/c the turn with JdJ or QdQ and plan to fold the river I like it.

unless u run too much float bluffs like this then he should NOT be calling there. so it come downto ur floating tendencies. on paired board it'll work less often. but i think its good still.

Do you call preflop on that spot with AK, KQ, KJ or JJ+? If not (most usual in most regs), you're representing a very unlikely hand on that board. If he's a solid player he will notice you're bluffing most of the time and will call you down with any pocket, or even c/r all-in on the river with air. I really dislike that bluff.

his calling range depends on your perceived range and how thin your value betting the river

seems like your cold calling a decent amount with your stats so there should be some K's and FD's in your range as well as boats.
arent many pairs in hand that you would've played that he can snap with his higher pairs, but his range might have weaker K's in it too scared of teh turn. dont see him playin much else with this line