400NL: A Couple Pre Flop Spots - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

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400NL: A Couple Pre Flop Spots

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11-07-2008 , 11:52 PM

WireySpinde11

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 606

I run 16/11/3, 3 bet 4.5%, Att. Steal 30%.

HAND 1

Villain is, over 90 hands: 39/8/0.76, 3 bets 10%, folds BB to Steal 0%.

No-Limit Hold'em, $4.00 BB (8 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP1 ($575.30)
MP2 ($413)
CO ($263.40)
Button ($576.60)
Hero (SB) ($412)
BB ($366.59)
UTG ($76)
UTG+1 ($439.95)

Preflop: Hero is SB with J

, J

6 folds, Hero raises $12, BB raises $44, [color=#CC3333]Hero raises $398 (All-In)

HAND 2

MP3 is 15/10/2,4, 3 bets 4.5%. Solid reg.
CO is (over 30 hands) 48/7/0.7, WTSD 61%.

No-Limit Hold'em, $4.00 BB (9 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP1 ($177)
Hero (MP2) ($462)
MP3 ($411.70)
CO ($367)
Button ($88)
SB ($408)
BB ($82)
UTG ($168.90)
UTG+1 ($652.90)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with Q

, Q

3 folds, Hero raises $14, MP3 raises $52, CO calls $52, 3 folds, [color=#CC3333]Hero raises $438

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11-08-2008 , 11:48 AM

Moke

journeyman

Join Date: Sep 2008 Posts: 244

Both hands are pretty close for me, but not bad.

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11-08-2008 , 12:36 PM

WireySpinde11

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 606

I have done some more analysis:

Hand 1:

Assume he calls with QQ+ and AK (A worst case scenario- if he calls wider or tighter, my equity goes up). I have 36% equity vs this range. So for when I get called, I need to make up $112 in Fold Equity (14% of $800). I need him to fold his 3 bet over 2/3rds of the time.

Assuming a 10% 3 bet range, and a 2.5% calling range, he's easily folding 75% of time. Factor in he's in the BB and me the SB, his range is probably much wider, making it an instfistpumpturbo push, in my opinion.

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11-08-2008 , 12:42 PM

Moke

journeyman

Join Date: Sep 2008 Posts: 244

Quote:

Originally Posted by WireySpinde11

Assume he calls with QQ+ and AK (A worst case scenario- if he calls wider or tighter, my equity goes up). I have 36% equity vs this range. So for when I get called, I need to make up $112 in Fold Equity (14% of $800). I need him to fold his 3 bet over 2/3rds of the time.

Assuming a 10% 3 bet range, and a 2.5% calling range, he's easily folding 75% of time. Factor in he's in the BB and me the SB, his range is probably much wider, making it an instfistpumpturbo push, in my opinion.

That's good, but save those analysis for villains with 1k+ hand samples. His 3bet and even the att to steal are random numbers in a 90 hands sample. The only you can assume here is that he's a loose, bad player.

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11-08-2008 , 12:45 PM

WireySpinde11

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 606

Quote:

Originally Posted by Moke

True, but as long as this loose player's BB 3 bet % is over 7.5%, it's a push. Seems like a fair assumption, even with a small sample size.

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11-09-2008 , 05:30 PM

holdem2000

adept

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 709

Quote:

Originally Posted by WireySpinde11

You've shown that with some reasonable assumptions pushing > folding. I believe that vs. a relatively unknown player (particularly with only 8% PFR, albeit over a small sample), I'd lean towards calling > pushing > folding. I also don't think that most guys who are around 39/8 are 3-betting you 10% of the time, so I think pushing isn't better than folding by as much as you think.

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11-09-2008 , 06:49 PM

Moke

journeyman

Join Date: Sep 2008 Posts: 244

JJ is hard to play OOP if A-K-Q hits the flop, you will be bluffed out of the pot or get valuetowned by better hands. I prefer pushing preflop, gaining fold equity and removing the positional disadvantage.

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11-09-2008 , 07:04 PM

holdem2000

adept

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 709

Quote:

Originally Posted by Moke

I misread and thought hero was the button, I prefer pushing too.

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