$2/$5 NL

1 limper and I ($650) raise to $25 with AdQh. Limper ($300) calls heads up. No reads.

Pot $55. Flop 9d6d2d. He checks and I bet $30. He calls.
Pot $115. Turn Ks. He checks. Do you check behind here and take the free card or try to rep the K?

With no reads I would bet again beacuse his range for calling the flop yet possibly folding the turn is so wide, 9x, 9oxh, Jhx,Thx, Qhx and so on.

If you bet 65 we still leave him room to all and fold the turn and he shouldnt feel commited (so that he shoves) yet.

How on earth do you have no reads. It's live. You can see your V. Describe him.

Repping the K is silly. If you bet here, you aren't repping the K (except as an accidnet with exactly AdKx). You are repping a made flush or AdX. If you'd bet bigger OTF, you might also be repping overpairs.

As for whether to take the free card or barrel, very V dependent. You need to tell us what you think his range for this line is.

+1

Everyone always thinks the pre flop raiser has AK anyway, right? So go ahead and oblige your villian by betting with your AK. You pick up fold equity against lots of PP, and maybe even some trashy nines. and chances are if called, you have some SDE against most flush draws.

I like the bet.

In the absence of reads I think this is a good card to double barrel. We can pretty easily have a K, so all of V's one pair hands should dislike this card. We also have a lot of equity if called. I bet about $65. If I bet turn I'm done with the hand if called and I don't improve, I'm not triple-barreling here.

I would also say that this is entirely based on really having no reads. If we have reason to believe V is at all stationy, I just check behind and try to take him to value town if a diamond, A or Q hits.

I think you should bet again on this turn. You have a chance the villain folds and also a chance he may be chasing a lower flush which will get you paid if you both hit the river diamond.

The guy sat down like 5 hands ago so I have no read other than hes about 75.

That's actually pretty important. I'm actually much more likely to be one-and-done on a c-bet when called by an old guy. Just stereotyping, but old men are pretty nitty and if he called your first barrel I'm waiting him more towards two-pair/sets/made flushes than I would with an unknown, who I could see having one-pair or worse flush draws than you. So, given that I'm much more inclined to take the free card here since the K is less of a scare card for him.

+1. OMC = nitty and passive until proven otherwise, imo. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see 7d8d take this line, and never to raise unless he hits the SF.


Also, you know how he's dressed, how he handles his chips, whether anyone greeted him when he sat, if he swiped a players card and if so what level it was, etc. All of these things are free info. Use it.

Is the free coffee in his styrofoam cup black or with cream?

I'm betting the turn.

He was eating a bran muffin.

This made me laugh. If OMC wasn't already taken OMB could have filled the void nicely

Whats OMC and OMB?

OMC is real = old man coffee
OMB I just made up = old man bran/muffin

Bet the turn.

It's sometimes a semi-bluff against weak made hands like 9x / one pair, which often fold, but maybe a bit more often it's a value bet against hands you beat like XdXx, 87, and various other draws and combo draws. Sometimes it's a value cut, but not all that often.

I very rarely expect a turn c/r since we do block the nuts.

We're only 4:1 to make our draw. So it's not completely horrible (though it's certainly not ideal!) those very rare times we do have to fold to a c/r. So while a "free card" might seem like a good idea, betting is actually quite a bit better.

65-70 feels just right to get worse draws to call and 9x, etc., to fold.

Flopped flushes and KdXx are possible, but he has many other hands as well.

+1. Positions too.

I could have AxKd, KdQx, KdJx, KdTx, AA (6 combos), KK/99/66/22 (12 combos), AK-AThh (4 combos), maybe some other AXhh, KQ-KThh (4 combos), QJ-QThh(2),JT-J9hh,T9hh,98hh,87hh,76hh, maybe some other suited combos, QQ-TT sometimes, AdX combos, plus a ton of air.

I'd probably bet bigger bet OTF with our hand. I don't think our sizing is necessarily a sizing tell though. I don't think we necessarily want to bomb the flop with AdAx,KdKx,QdQx, big flushes, and narrow his continuing range.

You really think better hands like 9x, pp´s (maybe QQ-TT,88d,77d) fold but QdJx,QdTx calls? I think that´s overly optimistic. Not sure QdJx calls our c bet OTF honestly.

KhQx,KhJx-KhTx x50%=7combos
KQhh-KThh,QJhh,QThh,JThh,87hh, maybe 54hh/K8hh/J8hh/Q8hh=7-11 combos
JJ-TTx.5%=6combos
T9s,J9s,Q9s,A9s,K9s,98s,8d8,7d7, probably J9s/K9s/Q9s=15-24combos

9x,8d8,7d7 is like 50% of his range. If he's folding those a turn barrel is going to be wildly profitable.

Do you like heros c bet sizing?

I'd go 2/3, 2/3psb here myself.

Yeah, exactly.

And no, haha, I don't expect V to fold pocket pairs like JJ.

But like you pointed out, hands like that are such a small % of ranges, and hey, against a hand like JJ, we have very decent equity with 2 overs + the draw. So it's going to be a fairly high equity semi-bluff in that exact case where villain isn't folding.

Quickly eyeballing it, I am OK with the smaller c-bet sizing. I expect to fire multiple barrels here with some frequency. I expect to get a bunch of flop calls from hands like draws and pairs and draw + pairs, etc, so I want to leave more chips behind. Think about this texture. Lots of pairs, pocket pairs, draws, combo draws, pairs + draw, etc. On many run-outs, those become bluff catchers (though it's even better when they become a worse flush!). Like I said, sometimes when we bet flop, we get value; sometimes we're behind, but usually (not always!) not by a lot. I like leaving chips behind for larger barrels on good cards. The Kx is a great card imo.

So I'm definitely cool with betting a bit larger on the turn. I think I had said 70. That is right around 2/3 pot. My question is do we ever ship the river. How many weak made hands and especially made hands + draws are he taking to the end? I like to spew sometimes, and I think this could be a decent board with the flop texture and turn Kx to fire 3 barrels.